LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Anyone trying to lock in anything at this point hasn't learned a thing the last few winters. The signal is there for two storms and that's great. Number one could trend closer and the coast rains while number two could trend east and we get clipped by flurries. Would that surprise anyone really? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 IsentropicLift, nice job today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Superstorm93, the GGEM is not a miss. It is a graze and a hair away from a Euro solution. Sorry, when I look at the models I compare using 500mb charts. The evolution is worlds different from the ECMWF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Sorry, when I look at the models I compare using 500mb charts. The evolution is worlds different from the ECMWF. How is it different than the Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 I agree but a lot of people interpret bomb to mean heavy snowfall. Well they shouldn't because thats not what a bomb is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Euro precip shield is also too restricted on the NW side I think, if that track were to occur there would probably be snow further N and W Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 IsentropicLift, nice job today.I agree the PBP was balanced and fairly nuanced concerning the most important storm of the year thus far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2015 Author Share Posted January 20, 2015 IsentropicLift, nice job today. Thanks, and nobody can say that I favored inland areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Euro precip shield is also too restricted on the NW side I think, if that track were to occur there would probably be snow further N and W 24 MB in 12 hours one would think so , but is the better lift in the right front quadrant and some sinking air on the western side ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Thanks, and nobody can say that I favored inland areas. It's annoying to be hearing about se ridges and taint on a 108 hour progged storm. I suppose equally as annoying to be discussing dynamic cooling 108 hours out. Alas, the comment was made about se ridges warming us all up and you responded in kind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Thanks, and nobody can say that I favored inland areas. It was not. Some might say you were dissing on eastern sections though!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cjr231 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 I like where we sit. Even if the Euro is too far west and there is a general consensus closer to the other off shore models as it gets closer we should still pick up a few inches. The Euro does tend to struggle with the Northern stream interactions so I wouldnt be totally surprised if its weakening/slowing the kicker a bit too much. Still very encouraging to have the GFS and GGEM trending towards the Euro. We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Euro precip shield is also too restricted on the NW side I think, if that track were to occur there would probably be snow further N and W The 700mb RH maps look suspect with a very sharp cutoff for an explosively deepening system. IIRC, the EURO has had a bias like this for a while now, with the most recent example being from the February snowstorm last year. It would be nice to see models like the UKMET and CMC come fully on-board until the hi-res models can get a crack at this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 24 MB in 12 hours one would think so , but is the better lift in the right front quadrant and some sinking air on the western side ? We have seen this before. 12/26/11. Bombing systems have tremendous dynamics. So you could a have a nuclear Ccb and subsidence and crap on the other side. Then the nightmare comes to mind 2/5/10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2015 Author Share Posted January 20, 2015 It was not. Some might say you were dissing on eastern sections though!! I'm the one saying that this is likely to be all snow to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2015 Author Share Posted January 20, 2015 Some huge hits today on the CIPS analogs over the East at 96hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 The GFS ensembles are roughly split, I saw 4 at 108 hours near the Op or more amped a bit and the rest generally similar or SE, 2 I think had nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 KNYC on the 12z ECMWF .8" frozen (MMU, EWR, and HPN are all within .79-.83") Not bad at all for a restricted precip field. SAT 15Z 24-JAN 0.17 0.00 0.15 0.16 -0.2 541 130SAT 18Z 24-JAN 0.36 0.00 0.35 0.33 0.7 542 130SAT 21Z 24-JAN 0.56 0.00 0.55 0.42 0.9 543 130SUN 00Z 25-JAN 1.00 0.00 0.99 0.68 1.2 541 130SUN 03Z 25-JAN 1.09 0.00 1.07 0.74 1.8 539 130SUN 06Z 25-JAN 1.17 0.00 1.16 0.80 -0.1 536 129SUN 09Z 25-JAN 1.17 0.00 1.16 0.80 -1.3 534 129SUN 12Z 25-JAN 1.17 0.00 1.16 0.80 -1.3 532 128 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 KNYC .8" frozen Not bad at all for a restricted precip field. Which Model? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stlirish Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Which Model? euro Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 This is definitely a thread the needle setup for an east coast snowstorm given lack of high pressure to north and progressive pattern. The soundings verbatim from the 12z Euro are isothermal and probably all snow for NYC at hr 102 and 108 given the very strong lift and likelihood of dynamic cooling in that scenario (850s hug 0C at 102 and warmest lower levels get is +1 to +1.5). The problem in the setup is that a very similar track has to happen for the coast to get all snow. Any closer and a substantial amount of the QPF could fall as rain in NYC, nearby burbs and LI, and any farther off the coast, much less precip will fall. Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2015 Author Share Posted January 20, 2015 This is nearly a carbon copy of the 12z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 with the lack of blocking here, I think most people understand a truly big snowstorm is not likely to be in the cards. But there are some good signs for a nice event, possible SECS, with mixing issues in the common area. I think at this juncture that is about all we can until some of the track uncertainty is ironed out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stlirish Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 This is definitely a thread the needle setup for an east coast snowstorm given lack of high pressure to north and progressive pattern. The soundings verbatim from the 12z Euro are isothermal and probably all snow for NYC at hr 102 and 108 given the very strong lift and likelihood of dynamic cooling in that scenario (850s hug 0C at 102 and warmest lower levels get is +1 to +1.5). The problem in the setup is that a very similar track has to happen for the coast to get all snow. Any closer and a substantial amount of the QPF could fall as rain in NYC, nearby burbs and LI, and any farther off the coast, much less precip will fall. Sent from my SM-G900V That's not entirety true. This can be closer to the coast and with a super low pressure storm and ccb, the coast can be snow. This is still SE of the benchmark. There is still room to come in to the coast more and still be mostly SNOW. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 12z European Ensembles and Control are rolling in. You'd almost want these to not be any more amplified than last night at this point. EDIT: Already looking similar to the 12z ECMWF with regards to the energy being further west and stronger in NM/AZ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2015 Author Share Posted January 20, 2015 The 12z EPS mean at 60 hours looks almost idential to the OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 That's not entirety true. This can be closer to the coast and with a super low pressure storm and ccb, the coast can be snow. This is still SE of the benchmark. There is still room to come in to the coast more and still be mostly SNOW. Sent from my iPhone Mentioned similar to say that yes slightly closer could work, but what the Euro is modelling is already pretty high end in terms of cyclogenesis. The 850 mb layer would likely warm too much initially if the storm tucks in too close that even dynamic cooling couldn't keep p type as mainly snow in NYC and along the coast initially. This is all hypotheticals though because it's still over 100 hr from the potential event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 12z EPS is a good deal west of the 00z run @ 87 hours. 1008 mean low over GA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2015 Author Share Posted January 20, 2015 The mean is really amped up. At 96hrs the low is inland and inside of the OP track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Inland over NC by 96 hours and slightly stronger. About to turn the corner Precip appears to be slightly expanded west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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