IsentropicLift Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 With today's 12z models trending more favorable in a big way for a powerful coastal storm this weekend I thought it might be time to make a specific thread, and then I saw the individual 12z EPS members and I said it's definitly time, here they are below. Discuss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robertgny Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 A thread for this storm was deleted before. Look at those pressures wow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 I know it's early but if it happens What day is this for?? Im scheduled to have surgery on Mon the 26th and I really don't want it to be cancelled!! but I really want snow too!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 18z GFS is finally waking up. Takes the slp much farther NW thru 102 already. Edit: Misses this run but getting closer at 500mb... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Too bad the navgem is not that great. It continues with the mecs signal. Run after run after run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 It's a day 5 storm with potential. What's the harm? This is a hobby after all. Sent from my iPhone Upper Air Pattern doesn't support it reaching the benchmark - all precip stays south of the metro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stlirish Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Upper Air Pattern doesn't support it reaching the benchmark - all precip stays south of the metro At this point, I agree. But, that could change. Models haven't exactly been great. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metTURNEDpro Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Upper Air Pattern doesn't support it reaching the benchmark - all precip stays south of the metro18z GFS run did go north and that's great news considering we are 5 days away from the storm. No doubt the trends today have been in our favor for this potential snow threat, but you never know. well we will by Friday the latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 If that trough is locked in like that over the east then getting snow will be inevitable. Even if they're mostly clippers we will see snow with this coming pattern. Nice AO dip expected possibly the lowest of the winter which history suggests we get cold or snow within that timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 18z GFS run did go north and that's great news considering we are 5 days away from the storm. No doubt the trends today have been in our favor for this potential snow threat, but you never know. well we will by Friday the latest what is going to change the overall upper air pattern ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metTURNEDpro Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 what is going to change the overall upper air pattern ?we don't know yet that's why weather is unpredictable sir. Not one good meteorologist can dismiss this threat and that should tell you something. Weather is not exact science otherwise models would have cracked the mathematical code of having perfect predictions. We have to look out for trends. Everything trended north. It'll be interesting to see what happens with the 0z runs. There's a lot of time. I've seen storms move 500 miles north or south 3 days before the storm. We just don't know yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 18z nogaps show a big storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Hoping we strike with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metTURNEDpro Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 18z nogaps show a big stormhonestly navgem not that I care for the model much but lately it's been on fire. It has been consistently better than the GFS the last couple of months that I can guarantee it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 18z nogaps show a big storm Map if possible? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Map if possible? out to sea - next http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1421706233 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 out to sea - next http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1421706233 Too early to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 18z nogaps show a big storm Are you sure? I did not see it that way. It does show a storm way out towards 120hrs but that's in the fantasy zone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 If you think your going to see run to run consistently from now until the storm you have anything thing coming, however I like this threat but I am being very very very cautious Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Are you sure? I did not see it that way. It does show a storm way out towards 120hrs but that's in the fantasy zone thats what they are talkin about the day 5 storm - we should now for sure if this has any chance by the time the first flakes start falling on Wednesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morch Madness Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Map if possible? Look with caution http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/metoc/nogaps/gif_files/no_amer_slp_wind_132.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Look with caution http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/metoc/nogaps/gif_files/no_amer_slp_wind_132.gif show me an AFD or any other professional outlet discussion that even mentions the NAV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 the 18Z GFS is bone dry with no precip (except for 0.02 the middle of next week) through the end of the month then a big rainstorm http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=KNYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 honestly navgem not that I care for the model much but lately it's been on fire. It has been consistently better than the GFS the last couple of months that I can guarantee it! No it hasn't. Its verification is not good (actually last behind the euro, ukmet, gfs, ggem, etc). Stop making things up Tony. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Look with caution http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/metoc/nogaps/gif_files/no_amer_slp_wind_132.gif That's a thing a beauty. Man I need that. Needs some support and I'll get excited Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYY_2 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 the 18Z GFS is bone dry with no precip (except for 0.02 the middle of next week) through the end of the month then a big rainstorm http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=KNYC its also been very inconsistent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 FOR FRIDAY...EXPECTING GENERALLY DRY WEATHER...THEN A POTENTIALLYACTIVE PATTERN GETS UNDERWAY OVER THE WEEKEND INTO AT LEAST EARLYNEXT WEEK. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS INDICATE CYCLOGENSIS INVOF THEEAST COAST LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY AND AGAIN ON MONDAY.TEMPS ARE PROJECTED TO GO BELOW NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 thats what they are talkin about the day 5 storm - we should now for sure if this has any chance by the time the first flakes start falling on Wednesday lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 show me an AFD or any other professional outlet discussion that even mentions the NAV Its been quite a while...but IIRC...NOGAPS was the *only* model to get the March 2001 event right...good snowstorm from Suffolk County north & east...basically light snow to the south & west...that has always stuck in my mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Its been quite a while...but IIRC...NOGAPS was the *only* model to get the March 2001 event right...good snowstorm from Suffolk County north & east...basically light snow to the south & west...that has always stuck in my mind.a lot of things stick in my mind about March 2001 Pamela and you can rest assured none of them are good since I spent it in the city and queens. Needless to say expecting 20 to 30 inches of snow and receiving barely five by storms end was a death blow. I'll never forget that feeling and the only thing that wiped that bitter taste was my marriage later that month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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