stormtracker Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 105 hours, 988 100 or so miles east of Cape May..850's crash, but precip is just about over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 96 hours...NICE...unsure about temp profiles though. Low just off ILM Perfect start time for marginal surface temps. 850 dances with DCA but manages to stay south. Optimal slp track. Nice seeing the nw deform band in WVA as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 GFS gives me 6" at the end. With cold rain at the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 I like seeing the GFS show appreciable precip at this point as it often under-does dynamic cooling for Miller A's (at least the old GFS did). If the strength of the low continues to increase with that exact SLP track, everyone NW of 95 is in the game. Down here, it's a toss up for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 GFS gives me 6" at the end. With cold rain at the end. A slight pivot is all we would need. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Plenty could go wrong but some nice Euro/GFS consensus in a believable range. Plus weekend rule. I'm in. Also lol on the NAVGEM leading the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Perfect start time for marginal surface temps. 850 dances with DCA but manages to stay south. Optimal slp track. Nice seeing the nw deform band in WVA as well. We need to work on surface temps now. I'm pretending that the sfc freezing line isn't back over WV/OH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Plenty could go wrong but some nice Euro/GFS consensus in a believable range. Plus weekend rule. I'm in. Also lol on the NAVGEM leading the way. All hail King NAVGEM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 I like seeing the GFS show appreciable precip at this point as it often under-does dynamic cooling for Miller A's (at least the old GFS did). If the strength of the low continues to increase with that exact SLP track, everyone NW of 95 is in the game. Down here, it's a toss up for now. So close temp wise for us both..like election nite in VA...too close to call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 12z GFS was a good run. 850s are okay, sfc is around 33F for most areas, but we can work with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Benchmark Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Yes Please... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Got it within 100 hours on both the Euro and the GFS... and others.. run to run consistency.. definitely trending.... Its time to go all in... besides 1/24 is my birthday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Even though the freezing line is in PA it's not like we're basking in the 40's. Raw temps between 7am-1pm are between 33-35 pretty much everywhere. Time to play the warm bias in the boundary layer card. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Well I just commented on the GFS in the medium thread. I need to pay better attention to the threads I guess. You have to love the trends over the past couple of days. This may actually be the one for this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 I'm just vort chasing again for now. Setup is no slam dunk that's for sure but this period has looked ripe for like a week and the GFS/Euro solutions are pretty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Can this thread be pinned? sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Even though the freezing line is in PA it's not like we're basking in the 40's. Raw temps between 7am-1pm are between 33-35 pretty much everywhere. Time to play the warm bias in the boundary layer card. I don't think it's actually true that we rarely trend colder into a storm anyway. Maybe in mid-Feb thru March but in January trending colder at the sfc is pretty common. Tho I wish there was a high somewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 I don't think it's actually true that we rarely trend colder into a storm anyway. Maybe in mid-Feb thru March but in January trending colder at the sfc is pretty common. Tho I wish there was a high somewhere. It was a weenie run no matter which way you slice it. Surface looked surprisingly good all things considered. As precip is thumping: As precip is exiting: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 I don't think it's actually true that we rarely trend colder into a storm anyway. Maybe in mid-Feb thru March but in January trending colder at the sfc is pretty common. Tho I wish there was a high somewhere. I feel like at least once a season we trot out one of Wes' favorite forecast situations-- the 1/22/87 No-High storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 It was a weenie run no matter which way you slice it. Surface looked surprisingly good all things considered. As precip is thumping: gfstemp.JPG As precip is exiting: gfstemp2.JPG I'm going to throw out that the new GFS has a warm BL bias again. Doesn't mean it's manifesting in this particular scenario, but overall, the bias is present. But either way, if the entire column is below freezing except for the near-surface (which is at 33-35F), I'll run with that in late January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 I feel like at least once a season we trot out one of Wes' favorite forecast situations-- the 1/22/87 No-High storm. One of my concerns would be what's to stop it from edging north? Seasonal trend hasn't necessarily done that but we haven't seen a lot of coastals lately. I'd probably rather see these solutions on Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 This thread is only for the Friday/Saturday storm folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Navgem lost the storm. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 12z UKIE isn't very helpful... its 96 map shows a weak low near ILM to OBX area and thats all you can really tell Anybody else have a better view? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 12z UKIE isn't very helpful... its 96 map shows a weak low near ILM to OBX area and thats all you can really tell Anybody else have a better view? I'll let you know once its on weather bell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 JMA is at 72 hrs on Tropical Tidbits, anyone have further insight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Navgem lost the storm. Lol Only the NAVGEM would go from a 966 Day After Tomorrow storm to nothing in one run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Only the NAVGEM would go from a 966 Day After Tomorrow storm to nothing in one run The EURO does it all the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 JMA is at 72 hrs on Tropical Tidbits, anyone have further insight? FWIW it looks good, 500mb def telling me a big storm is about to form come 96 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 FWIW it looks good, 500mb def telling me a big storm is about to form come 96 hours Good to hear, thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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