CAPE Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 the para is rain btw yoda Again low pressure up around the lakes, a bit north. No block, no 50-50 low, so a lot hinges on timing and ultimate track and strength of the coastal low for the weekend event. Early next week is the better set up per current guidance IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Again low pressure up around the lakes, a bit north. No block, no 50-50 low, so a lot hinges on timing and ultimate track and strength of the coastal low for the weekend event. Early next week is the better set up per current guidance IMO. FWIW. You saw this from DT? "the KEY is the clipper Low... that Moves to se canada and becomes the 50/50 Low for JAN 23-24 Then the JAN 23 24 event moves s into se canada and that becomes the new 50 / 509 Low " Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeVa Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 This storm went from a cuban rainstorm to DC snowstorm in 2days. It is amazing how you guys consistently reel in these big fish, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 This storm went from a cuban rainstorm to DC snowstorm in 2days. It is amazing how you guys consistently reel in these big fish, lol. I guess we are the equivalent of SNE to you guys. It's all relative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 I just looked at the GFS 850 mb low track and it slides SE of DCA. If we can verify that 850 mb low track southeast of DCA we probably keep the temps cold enough for mostly snow. Those details will become more clear inside 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 The one troubling aspect of the storm is there is no high to the north which will make it harder to hold in the cold air for we I95 and east guys. I'm not saying it is impossible but am suggesting we need the track a tad east of the current Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 06z NAVGEM FWIW: 1003 SLP near ILM at hr 102 994 SLP near Norfolk at 108 985 SLP east of ACY by ~100 miles or so at 114 979 SLP just SE of LI at 120 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 The one troubling aspect of the storm is there is no high to the north which will make it harder to hold in the cold air for we I95 and east guys. I'm not saying it is impossible but am suggesting we need the track a tad east of the current Euro. Have to agree strongly.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 The one troubling aspect of the storm is there is no high to the north which will make it harder to hold in the cold air for we I95 and east guys. I'm not saying it is impossible but am suggesting we need the track a tad east of the current Euro. It could easily be one of less common big coastals in Jan that is predominantly rain. I fully expect some if precip makes it to my yard. Euro ens mean runs the 850 line right over 95. And with the 850 track I'm sure that's not the only marginal level. I'm with you. Rooting for further east. I'll gladly trade precip for temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 FWIW. You saw this from DT? "the KEY is the clipper Low... that Moves to se canada and becomes the 50/50 Low for JAN 23-24 Then the JAN 23 24 event moves s into se canada and that becomes the new 50 / 509 Low " Well it accelerates through 50-50 but for it do any good for the next event it cant be up over Greenland lol. A 50-50 low needs to be stationary in that position or move very slowly, and that usually happens when we have a -NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 NAVGEM has been the trend setter with this one. The 6z track is not terrible for the central MD/DC area. Looks like it has been rock solid for about 5 straight runs. Interesting to watch the globals coming west overnight, including the Euro. Like Wes was saying, we need a tad east of the Euro track. However, if we can get the h85 low to trek around RIC or ORF, the cold air should be more optimal. Of course, there is not a distinct cold air source, so were depending on other factors, but just my 2¢ at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Well it accelerates through 50-50 but for it do any good for the next event it cant be up over Greenland lol. A 50-50 low needs to be stationary in that position or move very slowly, and that usually happens when we have a -NAO. Thanks. I was wondering why that comment was just let go. Pure dumb luck or thread the needle event, whatever you want to call it, I hope it doesn't fall apart. HM remarks make me more optimistic about Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 NAVGEM yall? For real tho? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 The one troubling aspect of the storm is there is no high to the north which will make it harder to hold in the cold air for we I95 and east guys. I'm not saying it is impossible but am suggesting we need the track a tad east of the current Euro. I've learned a lot from you and this is the main thing that's tempering my excitement for this storm. stupid F#$^^&! great lakes low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Not too sure about the current NAM look at the end of the 12z run, doesn't look too bad, any further insight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Not too sure about the current NAM look at the end of the 12z run, doesn't look too bad, any further insight? Further insight: Don't extrapolate the 84hr NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 I've learned a lot from you and this is the main thing that's tempering my excitement for this storm. stupid F#$^^&! great lakes low. At least they don't interact. There's weak hp sandwiched between them leading in. The hp scoots offshore but it's the reason we stand a chance. The antecedent airmass isn't destroyed by the low in canada. It would be if the weak hp didn't exist (and the low to the north was further south). It's still marginal because the hp scoots but we've seen much worse with lows to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Further insight: Don't extrapolate the 84hr NAM.so it's ok then to mention how the srefs look to be turning the corner up the coast at the end of their run? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 NAVGEM yall? For real tho? It has been pretty steady on its call for a coastal for numerous runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 It has been pretty steady on its call for a coastal for numerous runs Blind squirrel..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 1012 SLP in C GOM at 69 1012 SLP SW of TAL at 78 1010 SLP S GA at 87 1007 MB near CHS at 90 (precip knocking on DC's door) 1002 MB near ILM at 96 (snowing in DC -- at least looks like it should be per soundings) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Nice shift @ h5. Vort is more neutral/broader/energetic. MUCH colder in the midlevels. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 At least they don't interact. There's weak hp sandwiched between them leading in. The hp scoots offshore but it's the reason we stand a chance. The antecedent airmass isn't destroyed by the low in canada. It would be if the weak hp didn't exist (and the low to the north was further south). It's still marginal because the hp scoots but we've seen much worse with lows to the north. euromslp.JPG Any recollection of the most recent storm with a double low structure like that that gave us snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 GFS is doing it... Low parked just off of MYR...at 93 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Incoming at 93!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 96 hours...NICE...unsure about temp profiles though. Low just off ILM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 GFS with the haymaker??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Surface freezing line is all the way out through Davis, wv and southern pa but hey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 102 -- 991mb SLP east of Norfolk 105 -- 985 SLP ESE of ACY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 99 hours just off of the outerbanks..850 line over i95 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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