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JAN 23-24 anyone ?


DTWXRISK

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As I emphasized last night and early this morning, elongated high pressure has served us well. It's moved east enough now to not be in a great position but with the track of the low pressure we do not need a solid high to be in it's typical snow producing location. BWI probably will get more frozen than IAD. 

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People at work looking at the forecasts on noaa.gov and weather channel: "Omg, it's gonna snow".

Me: eh...

Them: it says so right here - 3-5 inches!

Me: um, maybe...

Weather.com is actually just calling for zr and rain. No accumulating snow.

LWX zone forecast gives me 3-5... I think a dusting is more likely than 3" but these are highly qualified mets. I won't say they're wrong till it's over.

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quite a bit less snow than 12z.. mostly PA border north no? 

yea, its been trending towards the globals (which are a torch) last few runs.  I sniff out a bust for the high res.  Touch call for my area.  The high res models, RGEM, NAM, ARW, NMM all painted a snowy picture up here, while the globals all say cold rain well into PA.  I think somewhere in between ends up correct, but that just means I see hours of mangled flakes mixed in with the rain and perhaps a few bursts of snow when the precip gets heavy enough with little accumulation.  Not sure if NWS is just being really cautious and would rather bust high then low or if they really think this is going to come in a few degrees colder then guidance tonight.

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