usedtobe Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 I think they're being overly cautious...but I think they might not trust the new GFS and think it runs too warm...this is a pretty ugly sounding, but it is close enough to the margin of error, that with heavy precip could be snow...and I think NAM/EURO are colder than this..but I agree with you...Could end up being NADA for us... gfs15.png The NAM is a little colder. I show it in the CWG article that will or already has been posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Sterling doing their usual reverse psychology. Wow... lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 The NAM is a little colder. I show it in the CWG article that will or already has been posted. Is anything else beside the NAM signaling boom risk? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 It almost seems like LWX is going with the nam temperatures and the gfs duration. I was thinking tomorrow morning was just going to be raw and drizzly waiting for the front to pass through. The way it reads, they make it sound like precip hangs on and even back-side accumulations are possible into the early afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Is anything else beside the NAM signaling boom risk? eh the RGEM has about .18 around Baltimore as snow, but then again it has almost 1.5" QPF total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWC Split Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 37/27 and finally enough cloud cover to filter the sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 whoa... very bullish. If that verifies it would be my biggest event of the year so far. Mine too. Boy, I wish Vegas offered lines on this forecast. I'd bet everything I owned on the under. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Children are frantically being whisked aboard school buses as we speak, all the while squinting under the glare of a bright sun, and shivering in the 40F temperature. God speed, little troopers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 was Roanoke supposed to see snow? models looked warm down there even to start Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Children are frantically being whisked aboard school buses as we speak, all the while squinting under the glare of a bright sun, and shivering in the 40F temperature. God speed, little troopers. lol... I wish I could believe Sterling's map, but I just can't do it. I'm thinking this "storm" is 1-2" if everything breaks right. But right now I expect nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 was Roanoke supposed to see snow? models looked warm down there even to start They had us starting as snow then going to a mix. Seems to be pretty close so far because it is now a sleet/snow mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Euro = NWS bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 My point and click forecast is 4-7 inches. The GFS gives me exactly .3 of snow. Something is busting horribly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 LWX seems to have an issue understanding what MAXIMUM POTENTIAL means....this is the 3rd time this year I have seen them issue a forecast for my area where the forecast is about the same as their max potential map for my spot. I have also ended up with my actual total over their max potential a couple times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 lol... I wish I could believe Sterling's map, but I just can't do it. I'm thinking this "storm" is 1-2" if everything breaks right. But right now I expect nothing. Same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 was Roanoke supposed to see snow? models looked warm down there even to start Marginal to start as snow. Radar just looks bad down this way. Snowing in Lynchburg too now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 yeah, not sure i see myself getting 4-6 per LWX snow map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 LWX seems to have an issue understanding what MAXIMUM POTENTIAL means....this is the 3rd time this year I have seen them issue a forecast for my area where the forecast is about the same as their max potential map for my spot. I have also ended up with my actual total over their max potential a couple times. meh... I wouldn't be so harsh on them. Several of their mets post here. I've ended up with totals above their max a few times but to be fair to them this whole min/max potential is a fairly new product and I wouldn't expect perfection for something that's still somewhat experimental. Also, your max potential is 8", LWX is calling for about 4" for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Man... LWX is very bullish... 15 miles north of Baltimore. A chance of rain, snow, and sleet before 8pm, then snow and sleet between 8pm and midnight, then snow, freezing rain, and sleet after midnight. Low around 30. South wind around 6 mph becoming light and variable. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New ice accumulation of less than a 0.1 of an inch possible. New snow and sleet accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Woah! Point and click went to 3 to 5 inches.. I think it should have gone down and not up! What are they looking at? 39/28 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 meh... I wouldn't be so harsh on them. Several of their mets post here. I've ended up with totals above their max a few times but to be fair to them this whole min/max potential is a fairly new product and I wouldn't expect perfection for something that's still somewhat experimental. Also, your max potential is 8", LWX is calling for about 4" for you. I am not being "too harsh" really just pointing out a flaw I noticed. I am not one that picks on NWS unmercifully but I can see how my comment came off. They changed the max map, it was 5.8 for me earlier today and then they had my forecast at 4-6. Now it is more in line with reality. Point is be liberal with MAX maps, conservative with actual forecasts... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Woah! Point and click went to 3 to 5 inches.. I think it should have gone down and not up! What are they looking at? 39/28 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
infekshus Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 37.7/27. not that us southers had much of a chance for this one, but a 17DP would be much better to see w/ precip (albeit almost assuredly virga) reaching CHO already. for forum members south of PWC, it'll take a shift against the recent trends to produce anything but a short duration of IP tonight. all southers are in need of continuing today's model trends--re: the 26th event--to end the virtual shutout for the season...season to date = 0.4" total SF. ETA: must be an elevated dry layer as the surface DP is now matching 2m temp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Man... LWX is very bullish... 15 miles north of Baltimore. A chance of rain, snow, and sleet before 8pm, then snow and sleet between 8pm and midnight, then snow, freezing rain, and sleet after midnight. Low around 30. South wind around 6 mph becoming light and variable. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New ice accumulation of less than a 0.1 of an inch possible. New snow and sleet accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible. Yep, mine is also 3-5. I'd be love to see half of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Man... LWX is very bullish... 15 miles north of Baltimore. A chance of rain, snow, and sleet before 8pm, then snow and sleet between 8pm and midnight, then snow, freezing rain, and sleet after midnight. Low around 30. South wind around 6 mph becoming light and variable. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New ice accumulation of less than a 0.1 of an inch possible. New snow and sleet accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible. Banter much? This seems to be all I've seen on this page... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Banter much? This seems to be all I've seen on this page... Your post fits right in then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Yep, mine is also 3-5. I'd be love to see half of that. Mine too. As you said, I'd be very happy with half of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 This is a very challenging forecast and there will be a very tight gradient between rain, frozen and snow. Max potential is about right...factoring the coldest solutions to explain the worst case scenario which at 4-6 or 7 is not out of the realm of possibilities for a worst case and the focus has always been well N and W and the Mason Dixon line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 This is a very challenging forecast and there will be a very tight gradient between rain, frozen and snow. Max potential is about right...factoring the coldest solutions to explain the worst case scenario which at 4-6 or 7 is not out of the realm of possibilities for a worst case and the focus has always been well N and W and the Mason Dixon line. *Silences the crowd...we've already seen multiple boom scenarios this year, so why not? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Flakes in Charlottesville. Pretty surprising given the torching boundary layer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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