Interstate Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Now the question is... is the NAM onto something. Lets see what the other models have to bring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Expat Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 The RGEM is just starting up. It has a decent history this season. Right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 What I am seeing is that an elongated high is positioning itself between us and the low that is supposed to show up in the northern lakes by late Friday. If this high can maintain it's presence then mild air issues will be greatly reduced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Gulf tapping time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 RGEM >1" qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 RGEM >1" qpf Temps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 NAM is making a lot of sleet, snow-- down my way temps above h85 are way warm. Buyer beware. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Temps? Well, 18z was an absolute oven. 850s were toasty. Virtually no snow for the region. I guess Mitch is talking about the 00z though, and I haven't seen that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Didnt the nam nail the front end crush in last Februarys snowstorm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Well, 18z was an absolute oven. 850s were toasty. Virtually no snow for the region. I guess Mitch is talking about the 00z though, and I haven't seen that. starts as snow but I don't know how much falls as snow huge precip=some evap cooling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Didnt the nam nail the front end crush in last Februarys snowstorm? I think some models do well in a particular season, but I think that's as far as it can go last year's results are probably not relevant Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Expat Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 RGEM (somewhat) agrees with NAM http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=rgem®ion=eus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2015012300&fh=30&xpos=0&ypos=250.6667 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Timing's not bad considering. Clouds much or all day might help us from super maxing on temps.. and will cut down on the increasing sun angle (hi Randy). I just don't really trust the nam on those types of precip details even 24 hours out. Come on!! Not this early! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 starts as snow but I don't know how much falls as snow huge precip=some evap cooling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 GFS has precip moving in at 4p. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 OT but I can't believe it's raining in central Alberta at the end of January! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 It doesn't appear to be NAMing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 It's a sauna at 850. 0c line is north of the M/D line at 6z. Front end thump of rain here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Euro will throw the final bucket of water on the fire tonight. NAM is a POS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Thats just not a good run for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 RGEM gets us all up to the high 30's before the precip starts. Then obviously they crash from there. 850's are decent though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Euro will throw the final bucket of water on the fire tonight. NAM is a POS. I know I'm not the most useful person on the forum, but I swear you only ever add negativity when you post. NAM has done good before, and RGEM somewhat agreed. At some point you have to put a little stock in short term models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Gfs at 24 hrs is def colder for sw va extending up the 81 corridor. Has a pocket of 0c 850s and the moisture is more significant on this run. Could get interesting for the guys along 81. It may be trying to compensate for the lift that we usually get off the mountains. Could have just been a blip tho because at 27 it is gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 That's just not a good run for me Sure makes you hesitate to go with the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Sure makes you hesitate to go with the NAM.I haven't looked at soundings yet. Maybe it's closer than the maps make it look? I've been next storm focused so I really didn't follow model progression till today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 I haven't looked at soundings yet. Maybe it's closer than the maps make it look? I've been next storm focused so I really didn't follow model progression till today. It's pretty similar to 18z...still implies possible period of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Expat Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Forecaster's Discussion " .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... FOCUS OF FRI NIGHT-SAT WILL BE A DEVELOPING COASTAL PLAIN LOW ASIT CROSSES FROM ERN NC TO OFF THE SHORE AT THE NC/VA BORDER. THISTRACK IS VERY FAVORABLE FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA.HOWEVER...THE PRESENCE OF THE NRN STREAM TROUGH NORTH OF THEGREAT LAKES IS LIMITING COLD AIR. THE COOL AIR THAT IS THERE ALONGWITH DYNAMICAL COOLING WILL BRING ADVISORY LVL SNOW/WINTRY MIX TOAREAS WEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR FRI NIGHT-SAT.DID HOURLY TEMPERATURES TO ACCOUNT FOR WARM AIR CROSSING SRN MDFRIDAY NIGHT WITH WARMING THROUGH THE NIGHT THERE. SHOULD SEEFRONTOGENESIS WITH SLIGHT COOLING FOR CNTRL/NERN MD. THIS IS WHEREA BAND/TROWAL WOULD SET UP WHICH COULD UP SNOW TOTALS ALONG ANDNORTH OF A LINE FROM DC TO BALTIMORE SHOULD DYNAMICAL COOLING BESTRONG ENOUGH.WRAP AROUND PRECIP LOOKS TO CHANGE TO SNOW SATURDAY...BUT AWINTRY MIX COULD HOLD ON THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 I really don't see how we get a thump like the NAM suggests. It's not like we start with -5c 850s and then quickly rise to 0C. They are 1c to begin with and we are praying for wetbulbing and dynamic cooling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Hope I'm wrong but would say this looks a lot like all rain 43-47 F with just a slushy mix near the end for the I-95 major population areas, of course some 3-6 inch accumulations possible at good elevations north and west. But the storm does one good thing -- it forces stronger high pressure to linger around for the later storm next week and that one looks fairly promising for you. Will think about it and post in that thread too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 I really don't see how we get a thump like the NAM suggests. It's not like we start with -5c 850s and then quickly rise to 0C. They are 1c to begin with and we are praying for wetbulbing and dynamic cooling. hope baby...it springs eternal in these parts NAM gives me 11.08mm of all snow for the first 5 hours (I checked hourly soundings and I'm good thru 29 hrs) at 30 hours, it has switched and 2.85mm fall the 30th hour, so some of that is still snow....say 1mm, so IF it's right, I'm looking at 12mm of wet snow, or 4"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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