Ian Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Yeah looks to have 36 for a high in Baltimore. My forecast for tomorrow is 40, so Baltimore would be a few degrees higher for sure. NAM has been meh on cold this winter overall. It seemed not as terrible with yesterday's clipper but I think the GFS still did better. The onset part could be legit otherwise though.. that's an area the NAM could have strength. I honestly have only been glancing.. if it's a new look you def want to see it more than one run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 problem with the Tropical Tidbits is it ain't snow at 30 hrs at BWI like their map shows here is the sounding http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM80km/NAM_Kbwi.txt here's the 30 hr. precip type map http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=nam4km®ion=neus&pkg=ref_frzn&runtime=2015012300&fh=30&xpos=0&ypos=228 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 problem with the Tropical Tidbits is it ain't snow at 30 hrs at BWI like their map shows here is the sounding http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM80km/NAM_Kbwi.txt here's the 30 hr. precip type map http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=nam4km®ion=neus&pkg=ref_frzn&runtime=2015012300&fh=30&xpos=0&ypos=228 that said, there's probably 2-3" of snow before a switch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Yes, the NAM definitely has problems with temps. For the clippers and the 11/26, it was so much better than the GFS for surface during-precip temps, though. The GFS was nowhere near 32F for any place in the DC metro region during the snow yesterday while the HiRes NAM kept suburban MD near and below freezing during the precip. IAD easily made it down to 32F as well as all the elevated suburban spots. I noticed it with 11/26 too--- even though snow was having a hard time sticking downtown, temps were 33-34 during the heaviest. That could be true/makes sense. It should also be a NAM strength. GFS seemed OK for the clipper to me, it will of course often miss temps in good rates. Around here a few degrees to start matters a lot though esp if it's a limited run at a chance to accumulate. On a dry day even with clouds it's been running way cold almost all winter. When I day to day forecast lately I barely even factor it in for temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 The numbers at KOKV are 0.7" by Sat morning with temps below freezing from the ground to the moon. Hope it's right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 SKT_NAM__KDCA.png not a bad hodo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Problem with the NAM is it's almost guaranteed too cold during the day tomorrow. After that not sure but that has to have some impact. I think it's worth mentioning what the NAM is forecasting in our CWH with a mention that if it is right, some of the western folks could get a significant snowstorm but that it often is a little cold and is often too wet. I think how wet it is is part of why it is colder. I still wouldn't significantly change the forecast until the Euro and/or GFS follow suit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Yes, the NAM definitely has problems with temps. For the clippers and the 11/26, it was so much better than the GFS for surface during-precip temps, though. The GFS was nowhere near 32F for any place in the DC metro region during the snow yesterday while the HiRes NAM kept suburban MD near and below freezing during the precip. IAD easily made it down to 32F as well as all the elevated suburban spots. I noticed it with 11/26 too--- even though snow was having a hard time sticking downtown, temps were 33-34 during the heaviest. This is true. Temperatures dropped at the onset of the snow and really only started going up after it ended yesterday. Eyeballing the NAM, we lose the 850s by around 06Z Saturday in the DC metro area, and surface temps are just above freezing. By then, a fair amount of precip would have fallen according to the model. Afterward, precip is lighter and it does warm near the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 not a bad hodo it's snow...we might have a couple hour window for snow TV and maybe 1"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 I'm not even going to click on other forums' threads, but I can bet that there's discussion about "convective feedback" over the precip pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 it's snow...we might have a couple hour window for snow TV and maybe 1"? yeah I looked at a sounding before posting my looks like 2 for me comment. def snow thru then though it's close.. already about .25" at that point. hadn't looked at sfc yet tho. it's not the worst for at night I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 you guys deserve it out there Hey, I have 3" from both clippers combined. You probably have double that. Don't hate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 not a bad hodo Where's the instability? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 I'm down for my 1" front end thump on the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Where's the instability? Snownado chasers can't be picky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 yeah I looked at a sounding before posting my looks like 2 for me comment. def snow thru then though it's close.. already about .25" at that point. hadn't looked at sfc yet tho. it's not the worst for at night I guess. I'm guessing at the onset I'll be like 41 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 18z GFS is even close enough to keep it interesting in the evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 I'm guessing at the onset I'll be like 41 GFS MOS 43 for a high tomorrow probably not a bad target it's been doing well. currently 38 at 0z, so with precip maybe not terrible.. esp if that's DCA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Expat Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 I think it's worth mentioning what the NAM is forecasting in our CWH with a mention that if it is right, some of the western folks could get a significant snowstorm but that it often is a little cold and is often too wet. I think how wet it is is part of why it is colder. I still wouldn't significantly change the forecast until the Euro and/or GFS follow suit. I agree. Perhaps this could be hints of dynamic cooling? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 crazy NAM is this the Hi-Res? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Timing's not bad considering. Clouds much or all day might help us from super maxing on temps.. and will cut down on the increasing sun angle (hi Randy). I just don't really trust the nam on those types of precip details even 24 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 I agree. Perhaps this could be hints of dynamic cooling? But is right, it tends to sometimes be too wet and cold. There's always a chance it could be right but right now it's probably wise to wait for the GFS and Euro. The NAM did not really distinguish itself with our last clipper. The GFS actually did better though both it and the NAm had temps crashing at least across BWi to my house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 It's as if the storm pushes through regardless of that GLL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Timing's not bad considering. Clouds much or all day might help us from super maxing on temps.. and will cut down on the increasing sun angle (hi Randy). I just don't really trust the nam on those types of precip details even 24 hours out. Hi-RES gives us 1" QPF... Both models have a high of 40-41, but drop us to 33 by 8-9pm, since a wall of precip comes in at like 5pm...good start time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 The NAM busted like 8 minutes before it started to snow yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Expat Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 This run also brings Sun/Mon low back south...http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus®ion=neus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2015012300&fh=81&xpos=0&ypos=401 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 There are some BIG ifs here but verbatim .25" liquid in 3 hours 7PM to 10PMN with snow sounding at DCA would have the obs thread rocking for that period of time for sure. As Wes noted though, NAM is on its own, and without support just can't buy into it... yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 The NAM busted like 8 minutes before it started to snow yesterday. it got worse as we got closer...it is not a very good model....but I think it lends credence to the idea that it is close enough that maybe we get front thumped....I can't wait for my 0.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 it got worse as we got closer...it is not a very good model....but I think it lends credence to the idea that it is close enough that maybe we get front thumped....I can't wait for my 0.5"Yeah and some of the bust were details we maybe shouldn't expect it to get. This is a different beast anyway and it's in a range where it's actually worth looking at. May have to stay up for Euro.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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