Ian Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 While an improvement over the old GFS, the new package is plenty flawed. The higher run-to-run variability has also been noted by the field, though this is at least in part a function of the higher resolution and new dynamics. I don't think there is an easy fix to this, but the extension to 4D data assimilation and improved initialization techniques could/should help. The physics (especially the boundary layer and physics schemes) still need significant work. People including me say a lot of stupid stuff about the models here but it's mostly because they show things we don't want to see and nothing more. It's good to know the flaws are being observed and ultimately rectified I'm sure. Positive of jumpiness might be that everyone can dial back from calling storms 7-10 days out. If we're lucky maybe 5+ out. Model chaos might not be a bad thing. ha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Was comparing model runs that were snowy a couple days ago to now. Big difference is the lakes low. It was much further north with less interaction. Pressures over upstate ny went from 1014 to 1006. The low is weaker too and I think the increased interaction with the lakes low is causing a delay in the gulf low bombing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Hey I was just joking around but what does the graph depict.. Is it showing actual departure from forecast... If this is the case it would seem that the gfs has a cold bias.. ? Gosh. Don't make this sort of post to a meteorologist. If you don't understand the graph, you not have a high school understanding of meteorology. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Nam cooler at 24 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 NAM is colder out here. Just a little but it might mean a lot....if it's real. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 NAM will do it to you every time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Expat Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 The 0z NAM from Tropical Tidbits has decent snow for hours 24 & 27. I want to believe it. but I am sure the NAM will just let me down again... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Lets see if any other model catches onto the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 The 0z NAM from Tropical Tidbits has decent snow for hours 24 & 27. I want to believe it. but I am sure the NAM will just let me down again... NAM does drop a lot of precip in the front end so it's possible it was never that far from all snow for much of the storm the last 3 runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Looks like 2 or so on the front end even for me but it's close prior.. 27 is snow but barely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Sweet front end thump for me on the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Looks like a 2-5sh dump from north side of DC up to the M/D line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Maybe its right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Sweet front end thump for me on the NAM That would be some perfect snowman making snow too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
feloniousq Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 The other thing also is that wes's outlook was a two week outlook that indicated a more favorable pattern in the second half of week 2 which is really not until after this Saturday event passes through. It focused on a negative ao and positive PNA.. Not a mega block -nao scenario that would support a mecs or hecs type event. No where in the artical was there any big storm hype The other thing also is that wes's outlook was a two week outlook that indicated a more favorable pattern in the second half of week 2 which is really not until after this Saturday event passes through. It focused on a negative ao and positive PNA.. Not a mega block -nao scenario that would support a mecs or hecs type event. No where in the artical was there any big storm hype DT is this thread's father and the event may yet yield some shoveling, but his attitude and ineptitude over the last two weeks has been laughable. He'd better make sure he doesn't dig a hole he can't get out of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 That would be some perfect snowman making snow too! Yup, borderline freezing the entire time. I'll take it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 NAM is colder out here. Just a little but it might mean a lot....if it's real. Heck it's got the 850's pretty decent even down this way. As Disc from ROA pointed out though, very sleety, but with the way the winter has been I would take the mounds and mounds of sleet. Anything to have some winter weather at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 NAM is 0.67" liquid at MRB through 36h. All snow with surface below freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Problem with the NAM is it's almost guaranteed too cold during the day tomorrow. After that not sure but that has to have some impact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Expat Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 If you look at the MSLP &Radar for the 4k NAM on tropical tidbits...that would be very heavy snow.http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=nam4km®ion=us&pkg=ref&runtime=2015012300&fh=27&xpos=0&ypos=347 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Might be sleet here but a good thump for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Man, The NAM is a legit snowstorm out here. Surface temps are even fine. It's a quick mover for sure. But it falls at just the right time of day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Looks good. Im in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Maybe its right 24 hours out it deserves some weight. until it has 850s at +5 for 6z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Problem with the NAM is it's almost guaranteed too cold during the day tomorrow. After that not sure but that has to have some impact. Yeah looks to have 36 for a high in Baltimore. My forecast for tomorrow is 40, so Baltimore would be a few degrees higher for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Where's that charlie brown/lucy football gif I had. I know we want to believe..but NAM. Not falling for it. Enjoy N and W folks though..you have a legit shot still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Looks good. Im in well that took some real arm twistin' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 EE rule....ETA/Ellinwood Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Problem with the NAM is it's almost guaranteed too cold during the day tomorrow. After that not sure but that has to have some impact. Yes, the NAM definitely has problems with temps. For the clippers and the 11/26, it was so much better than the GFS for surface during-precip temps, though. The GFS 32F line was nowhere near DC during the snow yesterday while the HiRes NAM kept suburban MD near and below freezing during the precip. IAD easily made it down to 32F as well as all the elevated suburban spots. I noticed it with 11/26 too--- even though snow was having a hard time sticking downtown, temps were 33-34 during the heaviest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Won't 850 temps be more important? I mean heavy precip should cook the surface pretty quickly. Right? And won't highs tomorrow be highly dependent on cloud cover? Any answers appreciated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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