WEATHER53 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 it does not appear to me that we are in a slam dunk situation with a low to our n-nw bringing in too much mild air. In fact, high pressure from the midwest does appear to be taking a ene-ne track and well may accompany the storm as it moves our way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 2-3 inches from this event and I am happy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 LWX's new map- Not too bad. I think north of Baltimore there could be a quick burst of snow at the beginning (EURO/NAM). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 LWX's new map- Not too bad. I think north of Baltimore there could be a quick burst of snow at the beginning (EURO/NAM). Looks like yesterday clipper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Looks like yesterday clipper 1-3 for my area. Got 2.5. LWX map looks bullish to me considering the 850 line is inching north on each run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 i dunno, the Euro wasn't awful for me. few inches to start, some mangled flakes/sleet/maybe cold rain on saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Looks like yesterday clipper Better draw a less than 1" circle out here then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Looks like yesterday clipper Not even close. I got a mangled inch with the clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Not even close. I got a mangled inch with the clipper. 1/2 inch slop that was completed erased by 3 PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
schinz Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 18z 4KM NAM showing a nice 6 inch swath in areas just to the North and West of DC and Baltimore!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 18z 4KM NAM showing a nice 6 inch swath in areas just to the North and West of DC and Baltimore!! Thanks to a Saturday afternoon death band.... too bad it's the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 18z 4KM NAM showing a nice 6 inch swath in areas just to the North and West of DC and Baltimore!! It really does slam that area early on. Sfc around freezing before the brief switch to rain, then back to snow at the end. Verbatim it's 4-6" for areas N and NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ltrain Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Here ya go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 18z GFS continues to get toastier. Even the mountains in WV aren't safe. Really wish I had listened 2 days ago when Bob Chill et al were saying don't get your hopes up this isn't a good set up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Here ya go. While probably wrong, pretty impressive totals even into Anne Arundel County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Staged Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 I hope this is the beginning of the 24hr trend before the storm model runs! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ltrain Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 While probably wrong, pretty impressive totals even into Anne Arundel County. Yeah, I know. I'm right under that purple dot in AA county. I'm not expecting anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 GFS has some backend stuff at hour 51 but its in the afternoon and the surface freezing line is far away, probably white rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
feloniousq Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Screw it. I'm taking my superNAM half foot and assuming that baby GPS has all of daddy GPS's coastal issues and more. This will last approximately until 1AM tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 18z GFS continues to get toastier. Even the mountains in WV aren't safe. Really wish I had listened 2 days ago when Bob Chill et al were saying don't get your hopes up this isn't a good set up. When it looked like we were on the favorable side of marginal it was totally ok to get hopes up. But there was no wiggle room to go the wrong way from the beginning. As soon as multiple models warmed up yesterday and last night, the warning sirens were blaring. And after 12z today it was easy to let go. Much easier to see a storm like this go awry than something like the Boxing day storm. That was a stinger. This one really isn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 gfs has warm bias right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 When it looked like we were on the favorable side of marginal it was totally ok to get hopes up. But there was no wiggle room to go the wrong way from the beginning. As soon as multiple models warmed up yesterday and last night, the warning sirens were blaring. And after 12z today it was easy to let go. Much easier to see a storm like this go awry than something like the Boxing day storm. That was a stinger. This one really isn't. Definitely agree with you on that one Bob, watching Jersey/NYC get 20+ inches of cold powder was not fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 When it looked like we were on the favorable side of marginal it was totally ok to get hopes up. But there was no wiggle room to go the wrong way from the beginning. As soon as multiple models warmed up yesterday and last night, the warning sirens were blaring. And after 12z today it was easy to let go. Much easier to see a storm like this go awry than something like the Boxing day storm. That was a stinger. This one really isn't. MY friend Rich Grumm has documented that without a block that more often then not, the GFS comes north and west with time. This modelled storm is kind of doing what you'd expect with a crappy pattern to the north. Some still could cash in for some snow. I'd milk the Euro for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Looking at the pink and blue shaded precip on the Tropical Tidbits map (MSLP and Frozen precip) valid for 12Z Saturday... it looks as if the frozen precip line has progressively moved southward comparing the last four runs of he GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 gfs has warm bias right? precisely.. whatever the 850s are for yby just subtract 2.5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 I believe in the front-end thump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 precisely.. whatever the 850s are for yby just subtract 2.5. where in your arse did you find this one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jnis Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 I believe in the front-end thump. 20150123-24_MAsnow_initial.png Thanks for sharing. I hope it works out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Head West, young man sums up all the modelling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 By this time tomorrow we might be talking about thunderstorms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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