WVclimo Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 LWX has not caved yet. This was just updated: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 at this point the problem has nothing to do with track or qpf, its about the strength but more importantly, the organization of the low. 36 hours ago most guidance suggested a nice compact system coming out of the gulf then steadily bombing out up the coast. That lead to some of the snowier solutions as with our marginal temperature setup we needed the dynamic cooling from such a system to help out. The trend since has been for the low to go through a period where it becomes strung out and disorganized after coming out of the gulf before eventually bombing out. We are under its affects during that part of the process. The precip on the NW side of the low is a hot mess. There is no longer any closed H7 low until way north of our latitutude. Basically the low is taking too long to get its act together, and a lot of that is due to the circulation of the great lakes low interfering with the process. We knew about this problem all along, just took the models an extra day to "see it" clearly Yup...well stated. And that, in turn, is kind of adversely affecting the Monday potential which is close on its heels. We really needed that low north of the Lakes to either be farther away (more separation) or weaker. Don't see trends for that at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 LWX has not caved yet. This was just updated: image.jpg never a good sign lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Yup...well stated. And that, in turn, is kind of adversely affecting the Monday potential which is close on its heels. We really needed that low north of the Lakes to either be farther away (more separation) or weaker. Don't see trends for that at this point. Way too much chaos going on right now to draw conclusions about Monday yet, how this low bombs out up over New England should still have more to do with the end result Monday then what happens at our lattitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
feloniousq Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Can't wait for the LWX max potential map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Can we start the Threat Thread for the Feb 1-3 storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Can't wait for the LWX max potential map. It's up. http://www.weather.gov/lwx/winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Can we start the Threat Thread for the Feb 1-3 storm? No threads until 24 hours out should be the new rule... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Way too much chaos going on right now to draw conclusions about Monday yet, how this low bombs out up over New England should still have more to do with the end result Monday then what happens at our lattitude. True enough. I didn't mean to seem like I was drawing conclusions necessarily for how it will work out, just how it looked on the current GFS run. I agree that what happens with the weekend system as it intensifies over NE will be important for the event right behind it. I suppose depending on how it bombs out up there will determine if the following trough can dig more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 No threads until 24 hours out should be the new rule... I agree... maybe even 12 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 How warm was the Euro overnight? If it wasn't a disaster than I am not giving up until I see 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 That was in regards to precip. GFS has definitely caved in that regard. So you're saying that the GFS matches the 1" + amounts that the Euro was putting out? I just need to be clear on this because I don't give the Euro the praise that some here like to do. I will grant the fact that it was first to have the storm, but I'm not sure I buy into this silly notion that it somehow has a locked in range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 12z UKMET is like 0.85-0.90" QPF for DC. 12z Sat 850mb at +1.7C, Sfc temps around 34 for most of the precip. Sfc is a touch warmer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Way too much chaos going on right now to draw conclusions about Monday yet, how this low bombs out up over New England should still have more to do with the end result Monday then what happens at our lattitude. JB 9-15 inches snow for I95 is not looking good for this weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 JB 9-15 inches snow for I95 is not looking good for this weekend who cares what JB thinks? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 How warm was the Euro overnight? If it wasn't a disaster than I am not giving up until I see 12z. Oh yeah it was a disaster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 12z UKMET is like 0.85-0.90" QPF for DC What about temps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Oh yeah it was a disaster For everyone or just D.C.? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 JB 9-15 inches snow for I95 is not looking good for this weekendhe actually said that? Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 For everyone or just D.C.? Put it this way.... If it is cold enough in south central pa... There will likely not be enough precip... So we are all screwed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Put it this way.... If it is cold enough in south central pa... There will likely not be enough precip... So we are all screwed LOL, thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 So you're saying that the GFS matches the 1" + amounts that the Euro was putting out? I just need to be clear on this because I don't give the Euro the praise that some here like to do. I will grant the fact that it was first to have the storm, but I'm not sure I buy into this silly notion that it somehow has a locked in range. Euro has had a wetter and tighter to the coast solution than the GFS for days. GFS has bounced all over while the euro has merely shifted some one way or the other. Everyone can interpret performance by their own standards. Euro has been far more consistent and steady than the GFS by my personal standards with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Euro has had a wetter and tighter to the coast solution than the GFS for days. GFS has bounced all over while the euro has merely shifted some one way or the other. Everyone can interpret performance by their own standards. Euro has been far more consistent and steady than the GFS by my personal standards with this one. I agree somewhat. The Euro has shown a coastal for days now. The GFS finally came around to that. But the GFS was also the first one to pick up the strung out low idea. I guess if I had payed attention to the Euro's tendency to overamp systems I wouldnt be so bitter right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Euro will save us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Euro will save us. from wasting anymore time with this event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 he actually said that? Wow. He also said the Dec no storm looked like Dec 2009 when it showed a hit. So, on a curve this one might not be a bad call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ezweather Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 I'm amazed what comes out of JB's mouth. As they say on ESPN.. COME ON MAN.. REALLY... Advice for anyone subscribes to JB, don't. He's interesting and knowledgeable, but what he says about December 2009, come on. NAO hasn't been negative that much. No need to rehash the indices, but the pattern overall still sucks. Just give me some real blocking and then we can talk. Anyway, let's see what the Euro shows. Bottom line is that most of the guidance is trending warmer and very progressive.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Euro will save us. Wrong thread but I am thinking it does save us... for Monday. The seasonal trend for NS vorts has been south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohleary Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Allow me to make you feel better: January to date Snowfall Jan Climo to date Departure from Normal BWI 4.9 4.2 +0.7 DCA 3.0 3.4 -0.4 IAD 6.4 4.5 +1.9 Reality? That doesn't belong in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Reality? That doesn't belong in here. That actually made me laugh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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