stormtracker Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Heavy rain. Fun. Cool. What station are you using for soundings? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 12z RGEM Snow: 1"-2" DC Metro, 2"-4" for Shenandoah Valley and along I-81, and 2"-4" for northern MD into southern PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 FZRA accumulations look interesting in W VA, around .33" in heaviest parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Looks like snow at DCA at hr 39 and then sleet city after Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Fwiw, NAM soundings at BWI are really close during bulk of precip, and I'm talking within 1F. A lot of mash would fall if NAM was that much too warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 GFS is wetter and warmer. Early fears when this first showed up are being realized with each suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Gotta fight for our cold rain title. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Oh well, it's gonna rain. Boo hoo Are you positive? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Oh well, it's gonna rain. Boo hoo Rain was pretty much a guaranty for the burbs. We've been hanging our hat on the front and back. Front is slipping away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Gotta fight for our cold rain title. we'll never lose that one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ltrain Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Rain was pretty much a guaranty for the burbs. We've been hanging our hat on the front and back. Front is slipping away. Yeah, we'll get em next time Bob. Maybe Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 GFS is wetter and warmer. Early fears when this first showed up are being realized with each suite. It really is an ugly, brutal run. Checked soundings from 42-51 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 850 line is even NW of my yard on the 12Z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 It really is an ugly, brutal run. It is but it's not like we haven't been pretty aware of the issues. The euro last night and ensembles took my heart out of it. GFS never had my heart in it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 It really is an ugly, brutal run. Checked soundings from 42-51 I was perusing the New England section last night, some of those folks aren't the biggest fans of the GFS. I think one of the meteorologists there said it was minor league now. We'll see... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 This storm is a microcosm of this winter. Perfect SLP track in late January and we get a blowing rainstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 I was perusing the New England section last night, some of those folks aren't the biggest fans of the GFS. I think one of the meteorologists there said it was minor league now. We'll see... This is what happens when you stray too far from the heart of government. Also, it looks pretty much like the other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
feloniousq Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Gotta fight for our cold rain title. It's definitely going to be a fight since it won't even be that cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 I was perusing the New England section last night, some of those folks aren't the biggest fans of the GFS. I think one of the meteorologists there said it was minor league now. We'll see... But it's not just the gfs going the wrong way. It's everything. Wishcasting is all that's left. I don't think snow is impossible. But an impact event anywhere near the cities/burbs is becoming quite unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Boston mets probably like the GFS today anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 But it's not just the gfs going the wrong way. It's everything. Wishcasting is all that's left. I don't think snow is impossible. But an impact event anywhere near the cities/burbs is becoming quite unlikely. Yeah, definitely a warm trend going on, if not the QPF as well. Kind of had a feeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 But it's not just the gfs going the wrong way. It's everything. Wishcasting is all that's left. I don't think snow is impossible. But an impact event anywhere near the cities/burbs is becoming quite unlikely. Yep, I'd say more but have to wait for my article to be posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Crappy setups produce crappy outcomes here in the MA, and even the good ones blow chuncks sometimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 This storm is a microcosm of this winter. Perfect SLP track in late January and we get a blowing rainstorm. Allow me to make you feel better: January to date Snowfall Jan Climo to date Departure from Normal BWI 4.9 4.2 +0.7 DCA 3.0 3.4 -0.4 IAD 6.4 4.5 +1.9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Canadian sucks too...very little if any snow for DC..a little better for Northern MD but still pretty pedestrian Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Crappy setups produce crappy outcomes here in the MA, and even the good ones blow chuncks sometimes. Yeah, the set up just stinks. Can't rule out some slop though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 I was perusing the New England section last night, some of those folks aren't the biggest fans of the GFS. I think one of the meteorologists there said it was minor league now. We'll see... It was the one that started this trend. It may just end up being the leader on this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 And to think all of this happened during the Euro's locked in phase (thrown around in here yesterday). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 And to think all of this happened during the Euro's locked in phase (thrown around in here yesterday). That was in regards to precip. GFS has definitely caved in that regard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 at this point the problem has nothing to do with track or qpf, its about the strength but more importantly, the organization of the low. 36 hours ago most guidance suggested a nice compact system coming out of the gulf then steadily bombing out up the coast. That lead to some of the snowier solutions as with our marginal temperature setup we needed the dynamic cooling from such a system to help out. The trend since has been for the low to go through a period where it becomes strung out and disorganized after coming out of the gulf before eventually bombing out. We are under its affects during that part of the process. The precip on the NW side of the low is a hot mess. There is no longer any closed H7 low until way north of our latitutude. Basically the low is taking too long to get its act together, and a lot of that is due to the circulation of the great lakes low interfering with the process. We knew about this problem all along, just took the models an extra day to "see it" clearly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.