PDIII Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Radar looks pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 NAM PBP anyone? At 12hrs looks more organized and slightly further W than was predicted in the 12z... 18hrs, 1013L right over NOLA, definitely west of the previous run. Precip shield slightly north, touching Tennessee. ETA - and, handing over to Yoda... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 NAM PBP anyone? At 12hrs looks more organized and slightly further W than was predicted in the 12z... 21 hrs has a 1011mb MSLP near Biloxi, MS. I wish the NW shield would play a heavier role this run 24 -- 1012 MSLP at Mobile Bay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 21 hrs has a 1011mb MSLP near Biloxi, MS. I wish the NW shield would play a heavier role this run 24 -- 1012 MSLP at Mobile Bay At 24, is that a secondary low being held back already? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 NAM PBP anyone? At 12hrs looks more organized and slightly further W than was predicted in the 12z... 18hrs, 1013L right over NOLA, definitely west of the previous run. Precip shield slightly north, touching Tennessee. ETA - and, handing over to Yoda... The more organized and further the precip shield is north early.. the better... I think it is all about that thump... kinda like last February... it is gonna mix.. lets just get 3 inches in the ground first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 The more organized and further the precip shield is north early.. the better... I think it is all about that thump... kinda like last February... it is gonna mix.. lets just get 3 inches in the ground first. But last February we were in the mid 20's when the precip started. Even a front-end thump is looking suspect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 On the NAM the storm is getting its act together too late for most of us. Surface temps are a mess. Really disheartening runs over the past 18 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Looking at the NAM its tough to get enthused for this if you are east of 81...just my gut tells me its not going to be all that impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 i think the best i can do from this storm is clipper like totals. Maybe 1-3? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 NAM 12km is actually better than 6z for Northern/Central MD in terms of snow by looking at Tropicaltidbits, but a lot of that looks like a mixy snow. Really odd storm. Maybe some of us can Thump and then Dryslot. DCA and Southern MD look like a Rainy Mix. A lot of models seem set on 33 degrees most of Saturday Morning, it just depends on what side of 850mb we are. Really tough to get enthused by this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 NAM HI-RES looks okay to me... can it still snow with thickness 1310? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Decent banding of snow at hrs 51 and 54 for us on HI-RES 2-4/3-5 looks possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 You know when you look at the DCA sounding for 6Z GFS and NAM runs last night the picture looks much better than the maps for frozen precip. I know this is old news, and the new guidance may just torch the columns but DCA is still sitting there on the knife edge in the US model soundings through 7AM Saturday. Too close to throw in the towel completely on frozen accumulation, IMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Decent banding of snow at hrs 51 and 54 for us 2-4/3-5 looks possible 51 and 54? Thats not what I see.... http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ETAPA_12z/etaloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 i think the best i can do from this storm is clipper like totals. Maybe 1-3? NAM is a sloppy 4-5" from what I can see... .48 with 2m temp of 32 and all levels below freezing but around 900 around hr 42. Certainly close enough to pay attention here I think....based on the NAM anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Decent banding of snow at hrs 51 and 54 for us 2-4/3-5 looks possible Oh maybe on the Hi res..my fault Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 51 and 54? Thats not what I see.... http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ETAPA_12z/etaloop.html Yoda's talking about the Hi-res. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 12Z NAM drops 0.40" liquid at MRB with all levels of the column sub-freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 12z RGEM has precip making it into DCA by 00z tomorrow evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 12Z NAM drops 0.40" liquid at MRB with all levels of the column sub-freezing. For the moment longitude more important than latitude I think. Route 15 west in the game still based on the nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC_WX Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Reminds me of the day before Thanksgiving storm from earlier this season. Snow, but with ratios of like 4:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 12z RGEM has precip making it into DCA by 00z tomorrow 06z RGEM wasn't really snowy at all...it was mainly rain . Still waiting on 12z on weatherbell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 i think the best i can do from this storm is clipper like totals. Maybe 1-3? Clippers > snow climo peak miller As Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Lot of precip from 00z SAT to 12z SAT opn 12z RGEM http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/600_100.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Lot of precip from 00z SAT to 12z SAT opn 12z RGEM http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/600_100.gif Heavy rain. Fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Hr 42 QPF map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Heavy rain. Fun. Are you positive? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 RGEM the only one holding onto the heavy precip event. Likely wrong since it stands alone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Doubt we get heavy rain from this. Heavy precip will be sloppy wet snow at least, IMO. Light stuff could be rain/drizzle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 RGEM plots from the AWX Model page show snowfall around DC at 42 hours. About 1-2". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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