84 Hour NAM Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Seems like everytime we take a step forward and think things may be trending for us, we take 2 steps back. Hopefully the next cycle of runs can pick up where they left off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 I pretty much have no stance on threats outside 72 hours and even then there are pretty significant fluctuations. Huge storm probably unlikely with the pattern. Otherwise have no clue No doubt. I've had zero interest for days on this one. I won't be the least surprised or upset if/when it does nothing. I do like the 25th-28th. That's shaping up to be at least a legitimate window. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Pretty much the only way to go. 72 hrs. It has been frustrating to see the flip flop in the models, so much so that you don't want to look anymore. I like to see precip overrun from the Tennessee valley in advance of the coastal. I'll get excited when there are blues in southwest Virginia making a beeline for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ltrain Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 No doubt. I've had zero interest for days on this one. I won't be the least surprised or upset if/when it does nothing. I do like the 25th-28th. That's shaping up to be at least a legitimate window. For what Bob? A clipper? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 This isn't a 10 day fantasy storm, today is the 19th do the math. OK, I'll give the math a shot. 33.5* lat, 75* lon at 120 to 42*lat, 55*lon at 144 = I'm not very interested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 10 solids and another 5 lesser or very close by. Night and day compared to last night. MSLP track is from the FL panhandle to just off obx on up. A bit east but considering how different from last night, it's night and day. Still not a good storm setup for us. We would have to luck into it in many ways in out area. I count around 20 members with 2" or more hits at DCA, which is decent (~40%) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 OK, I'll give the math a shot. 33.5* lat, 75* lon at 120 to 42*lat, 55*lon at 144 = I'm not very interested. I'm almost there with you after my initial excitement. I was just happen to see something on the models...but I dunno..we've kinda been through this exercise before. We take a step forward then tonight, we'll take 4 steps back. Repeat. I think the 72 hour benchmark is a good one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 I count around 20 members with 2" or more hits at DCA We need another couple of ticks NW...a lot to ask at this point....where is the apps runner mojo when u need it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Seems like everytime we take a step forward and think things may be trending for us, we take 2 steps back. Hopefully the next cycle of runs can pick up where they left off. I'm almost there with you after my initial excitement. I was just happen to see something on the models...but I dunno..we've kinda been through this exercise before. We take a step forward then tonight, we'll take 4 steps back. Repeat. I think the 72 hour benchmark is a good one. We either have ESP and I don't know it, or you're copying my posts! Second time in 2 days! Lulz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 I'm almost there with you after my initial excitement. I was just happen to see something on the models...but I dunno..we've kinda been through this exercise before. We take a step forward then tonight, we'll take 4 steps back. Repeat. I think the 72 hour benchmark is a good one. I will never fall for the Euro ens. again after the mid-late Dec. (21st?) fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Even if this snow ghost doesn't occur psuhoffman is getting excited about early Feb. Good things happen this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 For what Bob? A clipper? You can see for yourself in Wes' thread. While obviously that period may end up not producing, the potential is not for a regular clipper. HINT: multiple ones of the analogs have NESIS numbers assigned to them... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 There is pretty much no way to predict what the models will do in the next 120 hours so how invested we are In the event is wholly irrelevant. Is there anyone who isn't going to follow the Models regularly at this point anyway? I don't like s huge event based on the pattern but otherwise it will either come west or it won't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 There are some decent GGEM ensemble members for us as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Euro control is an HECS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Was trying to look for clues in 84hr NAM at 500... I came up with nothing because I can't see what allows this to bomb and come north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted January 19, 2015 Author Share Posted January 19, 2015 why anyone would even look at that is beyond me Euro control is an HECS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted January 19, 2015 Author Share Posted January 19, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 why anyone would sue that is beyond me I'm not sue, or using it for anything. Just stating it. Its probably got much more skill than the NAVGEM that keeps being bantered about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 I thought NAVGEM was one of the more advanced models out there? Isn't some of the data classified actually? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 12zeps.jpg that is some nice clustering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 12zeps.jpg That's perty....just a tick NW please...of course the GLL is always around to pee in our cornflakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 that is some nice clustering. Especially between ILM and OBX... interesting to see a few members are even inland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Especially between ILM and OBX... interesting to see a few members are even inland I think I see a 986 right over ILM??? Good grief what a bomb that would be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Well GFS has it, but it is of no use to us. Slides right When can we start using "S and E" bias for the new GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Well GFS has it, but it is of no use to us. Slides right When can we start using "S and E" bias for the new GFS? Still an improvement on 12z. Besides. SE bias. 18z... something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Well GFS has it, but it is of no use to us. Slides right When can we start using "S and E" bias for the new GFS? It was a jump north though and h5 improved. Too bad the midlevels are trashed by the low to the north so nobody has a chance on the run. I'll hug the 10 euro ensemble members that give me snow and toss everything else for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Well GFS has it, but it is of no use to us. Slides right When can we start using "S and E" bias for the new GFS? Maybe it just has a wrong bias Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 12zeps.jpg I am confused as your statments seems to have been that the next 2 weeks and any upcoming events are no good for snow or cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Even if this snow ghost doesn't occur psuhoffman is getting excited about early Feb. Good things happen this time of year. I'm optimistic that's our best shot. But if we could luck into this one I won't complain. I would like to see the nao tank to feel really excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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