HighStakes Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 The lakes low is really screwing this up. It's stringing it out almost like a wave and preventing a nice closed circulation. Without that you don't get the precip on the west side of the storm. Of course euro could be right but that interaction is bothersome. Probably preventing at least a weak high from showing up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Probably preventing at least a weak high from showing up.forget a high, I would be elated if that lakes low was simply weaker. Say 1000 mb instead of 993. The problem for us is at our latitude the lakes low is the dominant feature of course further north the low bombs and eventually it's circulation takes over but that looks too late for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Hopefully its the right accum map, but UKIE is very nice and probably the best track for us snow weenies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Hopefully its the right accum map, but UKIE is very nice and probably the best track for us snow weenies the UKIE is great, problem is it is by far the best of this suite so far.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 We gotta get some kind of high somehow. Today had a 30.1 at start and that was enough. Real big difference back in the neighborhoods for accumulations just few hundred yards inside versus outside beltway Silver Spring 1/21 event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Eh, euro looks more like the gfs. Warm and drier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 I'll just jump on this grenade. Euro is very warm compared to it's older run. Kind of a has a double barreled look to it at 54. Any cold at 850 is sucked right out of the storm. 850s pushed above the Mason Dixon line at 54 and 60. Storm still plenty amped with a track over Edenton, NC. Way too far west for a good result. Snowmaps will look very poor for this run of the Euro. Edit: The double barrel look is promoting what looks like a dry slot right through VA up into DCA and BWI. Pretty much went from best to worst global model for the area in one run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 I'll just jump on this grenade. Euro is very warm compared to it's older run. Kind of a has a double barreled look to it at 54. Any cold at 850 is sucked right out of the storm. Snowmaps will look very poor for this run of the Euro. Edit: The double barrel look is promoting what looks like a dry slot right through VA up into DCA and BWI. Pretty much went from best to worst global model for the area in one run. No sugar coating. It's an awful run. Gfs in the lead for now. Nw shield looks terrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 No sugar coating. It's an awful run. Gfs in the lead for now. Nw shield looks terrible. I am going to take the GGEM/UKIE and run with them after the awful EURO run tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Lol. Awful run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 No sugar coating. It's an awful run. Gfs in the lead for now. Nw shield looks terrible. I stayed up for this $%$#? Well, not quite ready to give her up for dead yet...no reason to, but things look a lot more bleak than just 12 hours ago. Some luck we're having...GFS would pick now to possibly lead the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 I stayed up for this $%$#? Well, not quite ready to give her up for dead yet...no reason to, but things look a lot more bleak than just 12 hours ago. Some luck we're having...GFS would pick now to possibly lead the way. Even though the GFS has a bad precip shield, the thermals are still better than what the Euro is displaying here. 925, 850 both fry with the double barrel structure and no high. I don't believe the GFS spawns a second low, which is the difference here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Even though the GFS has a bad precip shield, the thermals are still better than what the Euro is displaying here. 925, 850 both fry with the double barrel structure and no high. I don't believe the GFS spawns a second low, which is the difference here. And is the double low really how it shakes out? Euro went from a consolidated precip bomb to a strung out roaster in 12 hours. I'm gonna pour a drink Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Sunday night through Tuesday is amusing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Sunday night through Tuesday is amusing I bet at least 90 percent of these modeled long duration events end up 6-8 hours events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Sunday night through Tuesday is amusing .1" per hour rates for 40 hours. I'm in. Looks cold too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Morning Day 2 from WPC: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 06z NAM has snow in DCA at hr 45 and hr 48... sleet at 51 and back to snow for hours 54 and 57 I believe per sounding Hr 60 is snow sounding at DCA as well Looks like we miss the ULL action as a potent h5 moves through -- as in down in C VA south of EZF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 06z HI-RES NAM has the storm a few hours slower than the NAM... snowing in DC at hr 48 Potent h5/ULL moving through at 60... HI-RES NAM P-TYPE RADAR shows heavy returns over all of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 06z RGEM QPF/MSLP map at 48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 06z RGEM QPF/MSLP map at 54 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 6z GFS is still ugly, but much wetter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Appears that the EURO ensembles look better for us vs the OP... I think... as in a lil better for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 6z give us the Northwest burbs some back end now. Still a pretty close call. I still think anything is on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 I can't believe that there will be no serious dynamic cooling the way that storm is winding up off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 I can't believe that there will be no serious dynamic cooling the way that storm is winding up off the coast. I would think a quickly deepening storm going from 1005 to 988 would generate enough dynamics for us. I'll let the experts chime in on that of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 I would think a quickly deepening storm going from 1005 to 988 would generate enough dynamics for us. I'll let the experts chime in on that of course. I think the problem is the strength of the lakes low. It's 993mb. That means it's the dominant circulation until the gulf low bombs but that's too late for us. You can see how the low has a good circulation and consolidated look down south but as it approaches the influence of the lakes low it gets sheared apart some. What causes the dynamics and precip on the west side of a coastal is the convergence of the cold conveyor belt and the moist flow circulating around the low. The lakes low disrupts that circulation and thus the precip looks broken up on the west side. Still time to trend better. Need either more separation between the lies for less interaction or a weaker lakes low and stronger gulf low. Otherwise we get a crap storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Well it looks like we may lose the big storm. But at least we should all see some snow out of this one. It will be interesting to see what the actual strength of the low is down in the FL panhandle tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Well it looks like we may lose the big storm. But at least we should all see some snow out of this one. It will be interesting to see what the actual strength of the low is down in the FL panhandle tomorrow night. Yeah definitely not good trends over the last 24h, probably would have to head out to Davis, WV to see a good snowfall from this, I'm tempted to hope for an inch on the backside but that usually doesn't work out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Seems that accumulation if any will come in a thump between midnight and 6AM Saturday, which could be a pretty fun viewing period for those out at the bars. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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