Expat Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Is it possible that we will get dry-slotted? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 I guess. I don't see the great harm in pbp if it's decent. As I was saying earlier, some people don't have access to models or it takes forever to load on a phone, etc. I think the problem comes from bad analysis like "its looks warm".."Warm" east. west. etc. unless it actually was warmer than its previous run. I am not gonna sit here and defend the Nam. But it did nail one storm already this year. And it has been performing decently. Was it right this run? Who knows. But it was definitely different from its previous run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 it's timing unless people mention the hr. of the model run, we can both be right or wrong Wait, are you two even comparing to the same run? It almost seems like you're comparing to the 18Z run while Ian's comparing to the 12Z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Wait, are you two even comparing to the same run? It almost seems like you're comparing to the 18Z run while Ian's comparing to the 12Z run. dunno what he was comparing this one to I always use the prior run, but it's nbd really bottom line, result looks like less snow than NAM verbatim Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Wait, are you two even comparing to the same run? It almost seems like you're comparing to the 18Z run while Ian's comparing to the 12Z run. Dumb conversation. I'm comparing it to 18z. Around here the .25 line did shift north a bit but the bulk of the real action all shifted SE by like 50 miles or so. I was looking at the broader region initially on small SV maps. 850s are also slightly warmer as the low passes.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 dunno what he was comparing this one to I always use the prior run, but it's nbd really bottom line, result looks like less snow than NAM verbatim I am hoping the GGEM stays the course... its the model that has been bringing a dumping to the region for the past few runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 The whole deal is pretty much done at 7AM Saturday on the GFS. Very quick thump and gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Canadian at 7Pm Friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CandymanColumbusGA Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Talk about a way to be welcomed to Virginia! First night on air tonight and I get to talk about this!? The Shenandoah Valley definitely stands the best chance of picking up accumulating snow, but this will start out as a nice snow event up in DC. However, I'm thinking you guys switch to a sloppy mess before mainly rain by Saturday afternoon. Down here in Charlottesville, it's going to be close. The Blue Ridge will definitely be white, but will any of that make it down 3000'? Tough to tell. Hence why I have snow showers mixed with rain during the whole event at this time. Again, what a way to be welcomed to Virginia! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Canadian at 7Pm Friday Really hoping the Canadian holds serve tonight and scores the coup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Gfs run was dreadful. as long as the GFS and other models come south with the Monday thing, and I believe history will repeat itself (again), we'll be OK early net week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 I know its garbage but it's there so I look. I remember only 24 hours before the dec 09 storm after having a run that gave dc 40" it shifted the heavy snow southeast and DT got all excited and everyone up here was worried then of course the rest of the 0z suite came in and we forgot about it. Sometimes I think I should go back to how it used to be and ignore the off hour runs and obscure stuff to cut down on noise but it's too tempting not to look. Makes sense. I think that Cobb product was giving even more than 40 on some of those Dec 09 runs. Not always useful but fun to look at and for the snow people to fantasize about potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 as long as the GFS and other models come south with the Monday thing, and I believe history will repeat itself (again), we'll be OK early net week to that end, this is the 12Z GFS from 1/16 for today's vort....you can see it had it in NE http://beta.wxcaster.com/loops/gfs_model_loop_archive.php?datetime=2015011612Z%0D%0A&fcsthour=114&type=1000-500_SLPTHKPRP®ion=NORTH-AMERICA&loopit=nol recall too that the clipper earlier this month was proged 4-5 days out to go to our north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Talk about a way to be welcomed to Virginia! First night on air tonight and I get to talk about this!? The Shenandoah Valley definitely stands the best chance of picking up accumulating snow, but this will start out as a nice snow event up in DC. However, I'm thinking you guys switch to a sloppy mess before mainly rain by Saturday afternoon. Down here in Charlottesville, it's going to be close. The Blue Ridge will definitely be white, but will any of that make it down 3000'? Tough to tell. Hence why I have snow showers mixed with rain during the whole event at this time. Again, what a way to be welcomed to Virginia! Welcome to town. Good luck on your hard forecast this evening. Personally, i'm thinking front end snow here in Charlottesville. 1-2" followed by a few hours of sleet than rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 00z GGEM out to 36 hrs... juicy in AL... 1012mb SLP 42 -- 1012mb SLP in extreme SE AL 48 -- 1010mb SLP C GA Incoming at 54 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Smoked at 54 with sleet? Or is that snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Hope okay to post this image... if not please delete then... 54 on GGEM: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Looks like 3 or 4 inches for DC Metro area using the same map as Yoda at 66hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porsche Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Yoda that doesn't look bad, can you post the next frame? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 UKIE at 48 UKIE at 60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Canadian at 52 hrs...hrs 49-51 looked like a mixed bag. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Ukmet takes a great SLP track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CandymanColumbusGA Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Welcome to town. Good luck on your hard forecast this evening. Personally, i'm thinking front end snow here in Charlottesville. 1-2" followed by a few hours of sleet than rain. Thanks! Funny thing is I had 1-4" possible around here on my forecast sheet, so not terribly off. I'm getting thrown to the fire while trying to learn the quirks of forecasting here. Add in learning a new weather computer system and it's even more exciting! Should be fun for this Florida boy to forecast/experience this winter weather! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Ukmet takes a great SLP track. It pwns...hr 60 QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Ggem looks like crap. It runs the surface low out ahead if it's upper level support. Result is garbage. Waa thump comes with a warm surge at 850. Then there really is no Ccb precip band because the system is disjointed. Hope this isn't a trend towards a less consolidated amped system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Looks like the foreign models are all good to us, relatively speaking. Our models are either dry or very mixy. If the Euro holds tonight, I gotta ride with the foreigners. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Obviously what Im posting doesnt contain 850s or surface temps but just going off those conditional maps, the Canadian is warmer and more mixy and rain than 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Just by map glance, the UKMET has what's probably the ideal track/strength. But mid levels are the question Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 00z GGEM: It's a very fast mover and a front-end thump here IMBY. 850 line gets as far north as the M/D line and as far west as the panhandle of WV at 54 (6z Saturday) before retreating back east as precip exits. 1" qpf for DC. Maybe 3" of snow? Not sure what other DCers think... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 The lakes low is really screwing this up. It's stringing it out almost like a wave and preventing a nice closed circulation. Without that you don't get the precip on the west side of the storm. Of course euro could be right but that interaction is bothersome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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