84 Hour NAM Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Guys... The NAM just showed areas that got 2 inches of snow TODAY getting .04 qpf FOUR hours before storm onset. Why even look at it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 RGEM gets precip into DCA by 7PM on Friday....hmmm There are your high UVV's psuhoffman Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Guys... The NAM just showed areas that got 2 inches of snow TODAY getting .04 qpf FOUR hours before storm onset. Why even look at it? Because it is one of the many pieces of data that we consider when putting together a forecast, and it's the only new piece of data during the down time between the major globals. It can be of some use at times. Clippers are difficult for all of the models, to be fair. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Yeah, RGEM looks pretty loaded Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Yeah, RGEM looks pretty loaded And warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Yeah, RGEM looks pretty loaded and looky here too....just updated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 And warm see my post below yours/above Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 And warm That's nothing new with G/RGEM. Didn't look that warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 It's amazing that those in the 10K+ post club are putting any stock whatsoever in NAM >h24. They know better and constantly beat that drum, but get caught up in the fine details of these late hour NAM panels. Understandable if it's just for the sake of tracking and fun, since it's been a relatively slow winter for the snow people. I know its garbage but it's there so I look. I remember only 24 hours before the dec 09 storm after having a run that gave dc 40" it shifted the heavy snow southeast and DT got all excited and everyone up here was worried then of course the rest of the 0z suite came in and we forgot about it. Sometimes I think I should go back to how it used to be and ignore the off hour runs and obscure stuff to cut down on noise but it's too tempting not to look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 42 -- 1012 SLP S of FL Panhandle 45 -- 1009 SLP coming ashore near TAL (just west of there) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 I know its garbage but it's there so I look. I remember only 24 hours before the dec 09 storm after having a run that gave dc 40" it shifted the heavy snow southeast and DT got all excited and everyone up here was worried then of course the rest of the 0z suite came in and we forgot about it. Sometimes I think I should go back to how it used to be and ignore the off hour runs and obscure stuff to cut down on noise but it's too tempting not to look. Exactly. Why do we have to go through this exercise every storm? This is a weather board. The NAM is a weather model. It's ok to talk about it. It's not ok to base a forecast solely on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 RGEM gets precip into DCA by 7PM on Friday....hmmm There are your high UVV's psuhoffman gfs has it knocking on the door at 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Exactly. Why do we have to go through this exercise every storm? This is a weather board. The NAM is a weather model. It's ok to talk about it. It's not ok to base a forecast solely on it. I dunno.. pbp of the NAM is pretty awful. It makes me not want to look at the thread. People should at least try to analyze it or something.. or just stfu. The idea people on the road can read pbp nam is nice but who cares.. they can wait till they are at a computer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 gfs has it knocking on the door at 0z I think a faster start helps maintain cold instead of allowing it to move off the coast or warmer air filter in from the S and E Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Snowing at DCA at hr 54 and 57 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 I dunno.. pbp of the NAM is pretty awful. It makes me not want to look at the thread. People should at least try to analyze it or something.. or just stfu. The idea people on the road can read pbp nam is nice but who cares.. they can wait till they are at a computer yellow traffic light. fixed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 I dunno.. pbp of the NAM is pretty awful. It makes me not want to look at the thread. People should at least try to analyze it or something.. or just stfu. The idea people on the road can read pbp nam is nice but who cares.. they can wait till they are at a computer. I guess. I don't see the great harm in pbp if it's decent. As I was saying earlier, some people don't have access to models or it takes forever to load on a phone, etc. I think the problem comes from bad analysis like "its looks warm".."Warm" east. west. etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 GFS looks a little warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 definitely a little colder at 850 this run vs. 18 z....at least 1C colder at BWI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 GFS looks MUCH better than the NAM. Not sure how it fares relative to its earlier runs tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 derp you get a pass. Just make it snow and keep being optimistic. ETA: It actually looks a little better to me, but meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 RGEM gets precip into DCA by 7PM on Friday....hmmm There are your high UVV's psuhoffman The foreign models have looked good in general. We want the amped solution. I know people in Baltimore and dc are used to rooting for an east track because temps are a bigger problem for them then here but in this situation I think no one wins without a juices up bomb. I'd definitely lean that way given history of nam and gfs issues with these type storms. Still, whenever I feel too confident I remember a storm in 2007 when the day before everything had a nice little 3-5" snow from a weak developing coastal and only the nam had nothing. We ignored it if course then next run the storm was gone on all the other models too. Anything is possible. Just because the nam is the worst team in the league doesn't mean it can't win one game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 WinterWxLuvr is not going to be a fan. Looks a shade drier and warmer overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Perhaps we could solve the problem by dedicating a thread solely for PBP? And use the storm thread strictly for analysis? I honestly don't have a problem with it all being in one spot. You can always use the ignore feature if you don't don't like their PBP analyses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 you get a pass. Just make it snow and keep being optimistic. ETA: It actually looks a little better to me, but meh I was just comparing 850s.. I'm not fancy enough for the rest. It is a hair north at least for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 WinterWxLuvr is not going to be a fan. Looks a shade drier and warmer overall. wetter thru 57 hrs vs. 18z at 63 while temps look the same thru that period as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 wetter thru 57 hrs vs. 18z at 63 while temps look the same thru that period as well I'm at like 84.. I think I got too far ahead of the discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 maybe we get some late action from the vort pass as the NAM started showing for the first time this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 This is why the pbp can be so ridiculous it's timing unless people mention the hr. of the model run, we can both be right or wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 And for the meat of us it's not really drier.. it may actually be wetter NW. But the truly heavier stuff all shifted SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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