stormtracker Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 3 lows, strung out POS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ltrain Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 What are you guys using? I'm out to 75 on instantweathermaps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 From the IWM maps, it looks like 850 is our (DC) worst layer. 900/925/950 are all better. 850 low in bad position I guess? Interesting this was both east and warmer at 850. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 3 lows, strung out POS. It looked fine till around 48 and then started having spurious lows appear... lets see what the GooFus does Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 I'm thinking we get some more precip after 60 hours and that changes back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 I posted this earlier, but the 500mb evolution reminds me a bit of Feb 5th 2001. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 pretty nice looking vort http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=060ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F00%2Fnam_namer_060_500_vort_ht.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=500_vort_ht&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150122+00+UTC&imageSize=L&ps=model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Ok, somebody with more knowledge than me explain why this system is having such trouble bringing precip north and west of the low. Even as it strengthens up near ne it still has comparatively little precip to the west vs the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC_WX Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 IIRC, the NAM was dubious with the coastal low last February too, many different solutions none correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Ok, somebody with more knowledge than me explain why this system is having such trouble bringing precip north and west of the low. Even as it strengthens up near ne it still has comparatively little precip to the west vs the east. my wag is the flow is pretty strong what fives me pause with the Euro is that it always wants to slow and blow things up and that probably is tricky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Enjoy, it may almost beat the clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ltrain Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Snowfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 nice precip from the vort after 60 hrs and that should be snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Ok, somebody with more knowledge than me explain why this system is having such trouble bringing precip north and west of the low. Even as it strengthens up near ne it still has comparatively little precip to the west vs the east. I thought I remember reading (maybe from Bob?) the lack of H to the north (besides just acting as a block) will prevent the precip shield from expanding well to the N & W like other coastals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 dang, BWI looks better than I thought it would http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM80km/NAM_kbwi.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 NAM's coming east this runSeems to me the issue is strength not track. The stronger solutions are a bit more west but not cutting inland or anything. The problem with the east/weak solution is it's also drier and warmer. The more amped solution is what we need if we want more then a slushy inch from this. With the marginal temps only way this works out is with a thump type scenario to aid in cooling. Basically the euro solution. Track seems locked in. If it's east it's weaker. I've also noticed over the years when there is no high in front it can cause that strung out look from precip. I think with a high it helps enhance the waa precip in front by adding resistance to the waa. You get a better precip shield out ahead of the low. Without cold in place or a high we are waiting for the low to bomb to get heavy precip. It can work out that way but it takes a feb 2006 type solution where the low bombs just in time and we get death banded. If you remember that storm the early part was a disorganized mess of light non accumulating snow. The death band saved that from being a low end event. This seems to be a similar scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Only we can screw up a miller A Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 I'm not too worried as it seems muddled either way but euro could be too amped. Though it's inside the range it's usually solid especially with these types of systems. If it holds tonight it's probably worth hugging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Seems to me the issue is strength not track. The stronger solutions are a bit more west but not cutting inland or anything. The problem with the east/weak solution is it's also drier and warmer. The more amped solution is what we need if we want more then a slushy inch from this. With the marginal temps only way this works out is with a thump type scenario to aid in cooling. Basically the euro solution. Track seems locked in. If it's east it's weaker. I've also noticed over the years when there is no high in front it can cause that strung out look from precip. I think with a high you get more convergence and a better precip shield out ahead of the low. Without cold in place or a high we are waiting for the low to bomb to get heavy precip. It can work out that way but it takes a feb 2006 type solution where the low bombs just in time and we get death banded. If you remember that storm the early part was a disorganized mess of light non accumulating snow. The death band saved that from being a low end event. This seems to be a similar scenario. agree and that's why I mentioned decent precip post 60 hours looks to be from the u/l low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Throw it in the garbage if you want, but the SREF bumped up the mean at DCA slightly to 2.5", FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Given that this is a Miller A with a lead time of about 48-60hrs, I'd probably weight a forecast like this right now: Euro Op: 40% Euro ensembles: 30% GFS Op: 20% GEFS: 10% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Given that this is a Miller A with a lead time of about 48-60hrs, I'd probably weight a forecast like this right now: Euro Op: 40% Euro ensembles: 30% GFS Op: 20% GEFS: 10% what a nice way to tell us losers analyzing the NAM to hang it up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Throw it in the garbage if you want, but the SREF bumped up the mean at DCA slightly to 2.5", FWIW Yeah, no overly big members though..usually the Srefs have a couple insane members..usually you can discount the top 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Yeah, no overly big members though..usually the Srefs have a couple insane members..usually you can discount the top 2 there's just not enough qpf to get insane with this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Yeah, no overly big members though..usually the Srefs have a couple insane members..usually you can discount the top 2 It's more useful to look at the mean which tends to iron out the noise, because there are always some zeros in there too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 no precip maps yet, but the uvv's and rh on the 48 hr RGEM are pretty suggestive of a bigger precip event on the way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 It's amazing that those in the 10K+ post club are putting any stock whatsoever in NAM >h24. They know better and constantly beat that drum, but get caught up in the fine details of these late hour NAM panels. Understandable if it's just for the sake of tracking and fun, since it's been a relatively slow winter for the snow people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Honestly given the taint with this system, 2.5" for DC might not be far off from the reality. Time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Foreign models usually smoke american models for coastals. nam still has to do its Nam'd thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 It's amazing that those in the 10K+ post club are putting any stock whatsoever in NAM >h24. They know better and constantly beat that drum, but get caught up in the fine details of these late hour NAM panels. Understandable if it's just for the sake of tracking and fun, since it's been a relatively slow winter for the snow people. I am guilty of reading the NAM too much, I guess. I like it within 24 hours, but I also find it a good practice tool for map reading as well...just saying... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.