Bob Chill Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 I'm not betting against the euro with precip either Matt. Euro ens mean was like .75 or something close to that. Op even wetter. And we're inside of it's pretty deadly range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 I wouldn't worry too much about the GFS....I realize it is an upgraded version, but I still don't expect it to do well with coastals...it never has....I'm more concerned with warmth and rain than QPF.... agreed Euro seems to have gotten its footings again (more like the Euro of old that is) with that rain event over the weekend when it had it nailed from 4 or 5 days out predicting high qpf unlike the American models that waffled with little qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 SageFastest 36 hours ever Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 If the GFS verifies someone will get 2 hours of snizzle. Less and less precip in the coma head with every passing GFS and NAM run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 I've only been side-eye tracking this with the clipper around but it all seems better to me today. I agree cold first precip later.. esp with that track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 That's pretty classic in these events. Leesburg and sparky will worry over fringing and then get the mega band in the end. Its not so much the mega band as it is the precip shield always ends up larger then modeled. Although being in the mega band is nice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Just remember the SREF ensemble was also throwing out 8-15 inch totals March 2013 for what became a wet pavement storm. You can say this about a lot of models and a lot of storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 The GFS took a nice jog southeast with the passage of the 850 mb low. it tracks southeast of the city, which gives DC proper a much better chance at all or mostly snow. QPF will probably be difficult to pin down this early, but yeah the Euro is in its deadly range, so it's probably closer to correct than the GFS, and we've been overperforming on qpf this year, so we can throw seasonal trend in there as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 I've only been side-eye tracking this with the clipper around but it all seems better to me today. I agree cold first precip later.. esp with that track. I'm just the opposite. It wasn't a lack of cold that hurt me today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 18Z RGEM says "Yeah, the Euro's got the right idea." http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/colour_images/18_054_R1_north@america_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_048.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ger Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 How much is the Euro advertising in general? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 How much is the Euro advertising in general? % snow is in question, but qpf around an inch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 I wouldn't worry too much about the GFS....I realize it is an upgraded version, but I still don't expect it to do well with coastals...it never has....I'm more concerned with warmth and rain than QPF.... Me too, but I thought I 'd tweak Ji. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 I am going to guess people saw this already, but just in case: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 DT's first guess map is up if anyone cares. 1-5 in the cities. 4-8 in the NW burbs. Seems reasonable I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 I am going to guess people saw this already, but just in case: Thanks Yoda. I never bothered to look at the regular stuff. Gonna be a fun Friday night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 DT's first guess map is up if anyone cares. 1-5 in the cities. 4-8 in the NW burbs. Seems reasonable I guess. 1-5 inches for the cities seems like a weird forecast... but looks okay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 1-5 inches for the cities seems like a weird forecast... but looks okayBetter than 0-10" right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Better than 0-10" right? I guess so... I would have gone with smaller range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 1-5 inches for the cities seems like a weird forecast... but looks okay This far out I think it's a reasonable range with all the uncertainty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 21z SREFs: hr 66 1004mb SLP over OBX hr 69 1000mb SLP east of ORF by 50-100 miles 850s briefly reach 0c hrs 63 and 66 along the I-95 corridor, but the 0c line never gets NW of I-95 proper it appears Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Paging Yoda: 21z SREFs are out. MSLP track similar to prior runs (OBX to BM). 850s moved a touch east. ETA: Yoda'd! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 21z SREFs: hr 66 1004mb SLP over OBX hr 69 1000mb SLP east of ORF by 50-100 miles 850s briefly reach 0c hrs 63 and 66 along the I-95 corridor, but the 0c line never gets NW of I-95 proper it appears They're pretty warm region wide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Looks like an overnight Fri-Sat start time for DC, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 I hope the NAM comes in with 3" of precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 21z SREFs: hr 66 1004mb SLP over OBX hr 69 1000mb SLP east of ORF by 50-100 miles 850s briefly reach 0c hrs 63 and 66 along the I-95 corridor, but the 0c line never gets NW of I-95 proper it appears Since we start an end below 0c at 860mb, the staggered timing of SREF members will cause the mean to be too cold. In other words, the mean won't show you getting above 0c, but the median will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 They're pretty warm region wide. I don't like not having any real cushion.. I am 20 miles west of I95 and can't afford much wiggle room Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 DT's 1st guess looks reasonable to me. Obviously hugging the Euro, but I think that's fine with a Miller A. I'm at the junction of 3 of his zones though...guess I'll just take the one I like best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 DT's 1st guess looks reasonable to me. Obviously hugging the Euro, but I think that's fine with a Miller A. I'm at the junction of 3 of his zones though...guess I'll just take the one I like best.Me too. I live on the B/H line. High end H beats low end B...so I have time to think which I prefer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 DT's 1st guess looks reasonable to me. Obviously hugging the Euro, but I think that's fine with a Miller A. I'm at the junction of 3 of his zones though...guess I'll just take the one I like best. I'll take the 4-8 zone just cause this seems like the kind of storm where the Fall line/I-95 is the dividing line between slop/mixing and significant snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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