AlaskaETC Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 SLP low at 998MB moving up past the Delmarva at 69hrs. Looks like snow tapers off between 66-69 hours too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 SLP low at 998MB moving up past the Delmarva at 69hrs. Looks like snow tapers off between 66-69 hours too. Sounds weak. The Euro at that time is 984mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 I'd be interested to see soundings on Twisterdata when they're out but it looks like from 63-66 we (DC) lose 850-925 but I would imagine based on the IWM maps, it's not by more than a degree (if that). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Ryan Maue posted this. Euro ensemble snowfall. https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/557992260407525376?s=09 All of these use weatherbell's snow algorithm which as we all know has a +snow bias Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 All of these use weatherbell's snow algorithm which as we all know has a +snow bias Absolutely true. I think they just check if the 850mb is <=0C and the multiply QPF by 10. Works fine if the column is nice and cold, but could be very misleading for PL/FZRA events or white rain. But they are fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 I'm wondering if snow can survive a trip through 0.5C layer without becoming rain. I'm thinking that it could and that we could be all heavy wet snow but man that 0.5C layer will give forecasters headaches for the next two days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 In 36 hours, I'm probably gonna be excited for 0.2" of precip...or less Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 I'm wondering if snow can survive a trip through 0.5C layer without becoming rain. I'm thinking that it could and that we could be all heavy wet snow but man that 0.5C layer will give forecasters headaches for the next two days. Depends on the depth of that layer. You can actually calculate this exactly using a skew-t diagram, but it's been about 12 years since I've done it. In a hand-wavey way, it would probably still be snow when it reaches the surface if the layer is 0.5C below 950 or 975mb only. Much thicker than that and it's probably rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nalanthi Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Longtime Lurker..... I don't usually post, happy to just follow the discussion, but I know several people who are planning to drive various parts of the Baltimore-NY I-95 run. Looking at the panels I have access to, my weenie eyes tell me that somewhere on long there is going to be a very unfun/unsafe drive. Can anyone give me a reason to doubt this conclusion? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 NAM slp is Pamlico Sound to Benchmark.....sound familiar? EDIT: but it does have that pesky low in WV that dies and then it transfers that seems to be our biggest problem....get it to die sooner and we hold the marginal cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Longtime Lurker..... I don't usually post, happy to just follow the discussion, but I know several people who are planning to drive various parts of the Baltimore-NY I-95 run. Looking at the panels I have access to, my weenie eyes tell me that somewhere on long there is going to be a very unfun/unsafe drive. Can anyone give me a reason to doubt this conclusion? No. That drive on Saturday morning could be hairy for sure, even if it is mostly rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 SREF Mean for DCA isn't very encouraging, although I'll take the 1-2" and be happy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 isnt SREF garbage till 24 hours out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 isnt SREF garbage till 24 hours out? It is garbage at all times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 tell me how the new GFS is improved when it shows .17 of QPF for leesburg and all the other models show about an inch. It did this last year with the Feb MECS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 isnt SREF garbage till 24 hours out? Isn't all of the guidance pretty much garbage til 24 hours out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 SREF Mean for DCA isn't very encouraging, although I'll take the 1-2" and be happy Just remember the SREF ensemble was also throwing out 8-15 inch totals March 2013 for what became a wet pavement storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 isnt SREF garbage till 24 hours out?For the past few years Sref has been garbage in general. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 isnt SREF garbage till 24 hours out? usually way too snowy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 From Stu Ostro and Jim Cantore on twitter. Bomb's away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Lol good ole twc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Lol good ole twc Ji is going to have a meltdown if the 18Z GFS is right. it's shifted the low farther east. My guess is it comes back west on the next run or two but I guess we'll see. It would offer snow just not that much of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 GFS does not like the NW side of the storm irt to qpf. Colder at 850 this run but pretty dry. I'll blend GFS temps and Euro QPF and call it a day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 the GFS upgrade looks like its the same trash as the GFS downgrade It could be right though....nam is dry too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 GFS does not like the NW side of the storm irt to qpf. Colder at 850 this run but pretty dry. I'll blend GFS temps and Euro QPF and call it a day. That's pretty classic in these events. Leesburg and sparky will worry over fringing and then get the mega band in the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 It could be right though....nam is dry too not that dry NAM is .75" for me and between .5 and.75" for you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 18Z NAM is pretty good for the northern MD counties per soundings. Flirting with mix at 66HR but OK otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Ji is going to have a meltdown if the 18Z GFS is right. it's shifted the low farther east. My guess is it comes back west on the next run or two but I guess we'll see. It would offer snow just not that much of it. I thought you couldn't get the models early? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Glad I did ok for today's event. This has the earmarks of snow to heavy rain maybe ending as snow for here. Maybe I can get a couple inches on the front end before transitioning to mud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 I wouldn't worry too much about the GFS....I realize it is an upgraded version, but I still don't expect it to do well with coastals...it never has....I'm more concerned with warmth and rain than QPF.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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