yoda Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Yoda, is that further west than earlier? Looks more like the SLP is tighter 09z at 78 -- http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=078ℑ=data%2Fsref%2F09%2Fsref_namer_078_mslp.gif&model=sref&area=namer¶m=mslp&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150121+09+UTC&imageSize=&ps=area 15z at 72 -- http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=072ℑ=data%2Fsref%2F15%2Fsref_namer_072_mslp.gif&model=sref&area=namer¶m=mslp&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150121+15+UTC&imageSize=&ps=area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 850 line is It looks like we only deal a few hrs of taint with the 850s... DC is probably +1 at worst at 850 level Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Euro ens track is right over the NC sounds. Virtually no lows east of OBX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Euro ens track is right over the NC sounds. Virtually no lows east of OBX. I am already focused on the Feb 1-3 SuperHecs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 I am already focused on the Feb 1-3 SuperHecs I'm pumped for the slow motion NAM discussion incoming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 15z SREF's are warm at the surface, Upper 30s Saturday Afternoon, like a 60% Rain, 25% Wintry on the plumes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Euro ens track is right over the NC sounds. Virtually no lows east of OBX. Does that mean we taint more? I would think that we would be okay... as long as the SLP is moving ENE or NE out to sea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Euro ens track is right over the NC sounds. Virtually no lows east of OBX. Bob, once they get to the VA latitude, how far off the VA Capes? If it is moving NE or ENE once to VA border, we'll do OK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 I'm pumped for the slow motion NAM discussion incoming. I am ready to discuss the NAM ad nausem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Euro ens track is right over the NC sounds. Virtually no lows east of OBX. it is pretty close to the OP....maybe a tad east... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Does that mean we taint more? I would think that we would be okay We should see if RaleighWx will create a taint map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Bob, once they get to the VA latitude, how far off the VA Capes? If it is moving NE or ENE once to VA border, we'll do OK. It looks pretty much like the op. Draw a line from Pamlico sound to 40/70 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 It looks pretty much like the op. Draw a line from Pamlico sound to 40/70 thx should I use a black or blue colored pen? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 it is pretty close to the OP....maybe a tad east... Slightly east sounds good... thanks and thanks Bob for the mental drawing image Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Does that mean we taint more? I would think that we would be okay... as long as the SLP is moving ENE or NE out to sea The track of the surface low is not determinative of subtle nuances over DC metro....That is why we have soundings and high res models....detecting mixing and subtle differences between rain/snow/sleet over a small area by using the sfc low is something that was probably done in 1953....the track is important, but not every track is going to yield the same result....it is different every storm...we could get rain with that track..other features are of crucial importance..you realize that though...you have been following models for 12 years.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 It looks pretty much like the op. Draw a line from Pamlico sound to 40/70 Somehow not too much of a surprise at this point that it's mirroring the ops. I know you mentioned there are virtually no lows east of OBX, but what's the spread like approaching the VA/NC border? Either way, as has been said many times, we're looking at a real knife-edge here. I am ready to discuss the NAM ad nausem Since it's the NAM, it might be more like "reductio ad absurdum!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ltrain Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Ryan Maue posted this. Euro ensemble snowfall. https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/557992260407525376?s=09 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 We should see if RaleighWx will create a taint map. Can't imagine that'd be pretty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 the 850 mb low track is actually more telling in this situation than the track of the surface low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Ryan Maue posted this. Euro ensemble snowfall. https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/557992260407525376?s=09 A couple HECS's in there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Man. I just had a chance to look at the euro. It is about as good a run as we could hope for. Mixing is part of the deal with these events anyways. Verbatim it is 8+ for the far NW burbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 hr 42 has a 1012mb SLP right over Mobile Bay AL, hr 48 the 1012mb SLP is in extreme Western FL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 These can be tough while to low is to our west in longitude especially if the center of circulation is in northen North Carolina or north. In those cases we have to wait until it is east of our longitude for the snow to dominate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Ryan Maue posted this. Euro ensemble snowfall. https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/557992260407525376?s=09 #29 please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 18z NAM looks warm at hrs 51 and 54. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 I am already focused on the Feb 1-3 SuperHecsI've liked that setup for a while. All this is bonus I think the first week of feb we get a flush hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 18z NAM gets precipitation to DC by 57hrs, with the SLP low off SC, it looks like rain though. Snow starts 60hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Snowing in DCA at hr 60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 And now we wait for 3 hours for NAM panels after 60 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Snowing in DCA at hr 60 Sleety snow at 63 at DCA... or is sleet. Column is isothermal at 66 so prob snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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