paulythegun Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 I believe so. Thanks. I ask because most of the models have had a decent snowcover cooked into the cake over the next day or two (from the clipper), and I assume they're factoring that into temps Thursday night (which get pretty cold - upper teens in many places). Absent that widespread snowcover....many areas may be much warmer at the surface I'd imagine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 0C at 850 still to my southeast at 72h on the Euro. -2 just to my northwest. OKV, MRB, and HGR may mix though with a warm level somewhere nearby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 I'd consider it a better run than last night...everyone gets snow, and it is real borderline who flips....at 69 hours the mid levels are the warmest, and everyone east of a JYO-BWI line goes above 0 at 850, 925mb we are teetering on the edge for parts of the run too... but it honestly is probably like +0.5 or something like that at those 2 levels...I don't consider this a bad run per se' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Believe it or not, it's actually a touch (and I mean smidge) colder @ 850 @ at 12z Saturday than last nights run. DCA is right at 0c or a shade above even through the 0c line is way west. Snow to rain to snow but close to less rain/more snow with just a little help from the slp track. This is as marginal as it gets. I mean right on the cusp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 I'd consider it a better run than last night...everyone gets snow, and it is real borderline who flips....at 69 hours the mid levels are the warmest, and everyone east of a JYO-BWI line goes above 0 at 850, 925mb we are teetering on the edge for parts of the run too... but it honestly is probably like +0.5 or something like that at those 2 levels...I don't consider this a bad run per se' Same here. Even with a slight jog west with the MSLP, rates are overcoming temps especially in the lower portion of the atmosphere. If we could get the low jog east with the same dynamics..it could be a different ballgame for 95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Although surface is marginal, the issue is up off the surface at the 850 MB (an others I am sure) levels.. the warmth will cause a mix or rain.. the surface can be in the 30s and snow (like today) but that warm air inflow will get above us and cause a mix or changeover. Yep, gotcha. I guess I'm just worried about wasting a percentage of the snow that does fall thanks to marginal temps. Is it really a snowstorm if it the roads don't stay covered after the snow stops? existential snow weenie question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Same here. Even with a slight jog west with the MSLP, rates are overcoming temps especially in the lower portion of the atmosphere. If we could get the low jog east with the same dynamics..it could be a different ballgame for 95. This is what excites me, there are good dynamics...the low is bombing...and the QPF is substantial. Just 30-50 miles east on the low track could be all it takes for more than just the thump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 I'd consider it a better run than last night...everyone gets snow, and it is real borderline who flips....at 69 hours the mid levels are the warmest, and everyone east of a JYO-BWI line goes above 0 at 850, 925mb we are teetering on the edge for parts of the run too... but it honestly is probably like +0.5 or something like that at those 2 levels...I don't consider this a bad run per se' Whats the look down toward EZF or a bit (10-15 miles) west of there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Much wetter for the northerner's who are interested. Doubles QPF from 0z run. Looks like a lot of it is snow but it's a close call. 850's briefly get to slightly above 0 around 12z before dropping back to -2 around 18z. Total QPF for event at Westminster is .85 or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 I'd consider it a better run than last night...everyone gets snow, and it is real borderline who flips....at 69 hours the mid levels are the warmest, and everyone east of a JYO-BWI line goes above 0 at 850, 925mb we are teetering on the edge for parts of the run too... but it honestly is probably like +0.5 or something like that at those 2 levels...I don't consider this a bad run per se' Yeah, at 850 and 925, we warm to about 0.5 or so, based on the maps so it's not terrible. I like what you've been saying for days - for coastal plain, keep expectations in check that we'll flip to mix/rain for a period of time. Get this SLP east by like 30 miles and we mix even less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Yep, gotcha. I guess I'm just worried about wasting a percentage of the snow that does fall thanks to marginal temps. Is it really a snowstorm if it the roads don't stay covered after the snow stops? existential snow weenie question. all subjective and personal...every storm has its own characteristics and identity...i try to embrace it....for people who chase 6"+ events (still not off the table for many) with every low off the coast, they will face a lot of disappointment... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 I have a feeling this storm perfectly threads the needle for warning criteria for many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 I know wrong thread, but what about Monday? Plymouth maps are lacking but show some decent RH at 850 and 700mb? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Yeah, at 850 and 925, we warm to about 0.5 or so, based on the maps so it's not terrible. I like what you've been saying for days - for coastal plain, keep expectations in check that we'll flip to mix/rain for a period of time. Get this SLP east by like 30 miles and we mix even less. we might be drier though...an imperfect event befitting of DC.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 I'd consider it a better run than last night...everyone gets snow, and it is real borderline who flips....at 69 hours the mid levels are the warmest, and everyone east of a JYO-BWI line goes above 0 at 850, 925mb we are teetering on the edge for parts of the run too... but it honestly is probably like +0.5 or something like that at those 2 levels...I don't consider this a bad run per se' 90% of our good coastals have a warm layer at some point and we see a bit of sleet S&E. Not a huge concern IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 I know wrong thread, but what about Monday? Plymouth maps are lacking but show some decent RH at 850 and 700mb? It's like a 2-parter that is kind of weak sauce...discussion is in other thread though at this point I think someone can start a thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 It's like a 2-parter that is kind of weak sauce...discussion is in other thread though at this point I think someone can start a thread thx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Much wetter for the northerner's who are interested. Doubles QPF from 0z run. Looks like a lot of it is snow but it's a close call. 850's briefly get to slightly above 0 around 12z before dropping back to -2 around 18z. Total QPF for event at Westminster is .85 or so. Sweet, thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 90% of our good coastals have a warm layer at some point and we see a bit of sleet S&E. Not a huge concern IMO and this might not be a good one....a lot of our snow events are 2", 3", 1.5", 4", mixy etc....and a lot of those are miller A coastals.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 and this might not be a good one....a lot of our snow events are 2", 3", 1.5", 4", mixy etc....and a lot of those are miller A coastals.... What's the regional precip look like Matt? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 we might be drier though...an imperfect event befitting of DC.... IMO, if choosing between the two, I'd rather this type of track depicted on Euro...I can deal with some sleet/rain if it means better snow rates, before/after we flip, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Sure is wetter ..nice run . Oz had n/w of westminster on the fringes. Gfs is still a little dry but I don't buy it . I don't buy it either. If the Euro looked like last night or even drier I would be concerned. Now that we are only 60 hours away from the first flakes this run should be taken seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 I don't buy it either. If the Euro looked like last night or even drier I would be concerned. Now that we are only 60 hours away from the first flakes this run should be taken seriously. Agreed. Things look especially good in this one up near you guys, but also doesn't take much to boost totals up from what is shown for the cities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Relying on dynamics to keep the thermals right is such an amazingly difficult forecast. If you rip throughout you can get 4+" and if the the heavy banding doesn't pan out you are left with cartopper and wet streets. This will really test forecaster skills. Rolling the dice and hoping for a hard eight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Does anybody have access to the ECMWF snowfall map that they would be willing to post to the digital snow thread? I think it will be interesting to look back on after this storm rolls through. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Does anybody have access to the ECMWF snowfall map that they would be willing to post to the digital snow thread? I think it will be interesting to look back on after this storm rolls through. Thanks Cantore posted one on twitter, but it seems to include the Sun/Mon deal as well. https://twitter.com/JimCantore/status/557967931078742016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 15z SREFs at hr 72 have 1004 SLP right along the VA/NC border (north of OBX but south of ORF) and deepens as it moves ENE Hrs 69 and 72 DCA dances with the 0c 850 line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 15z SREFs at hr 72 have 1004 SLP right along the VA/NC border (north of OBX but south of ORF) and deepens as it moves ENE Hrs 69 and 72 DCA dances with the 0c 850 line Thread the needle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 15z SREFs at hr 72 have 1004 SLP right along the VA/NC border (north of OBX but south of ORF) and deepens as it moves ENE Hrs 69 and 72 DCA dances with the 0c 850 line Yoda, is that further west than earlier? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Yoda, is that further west than earlier? 850 line is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.