DTWXRISK Posted January 19, 2015 Author Share Posted January 19, 2015 major changes at 114 hrs ... the 12z EURO has the Low with 2 or 3 contours around it and its as far North as central GA .... a jump over 100 miles.. when comnpatred to the 0z run at 126 hrs precip is now on the VA NC stgate line a t114 ... at 126 hr on the 0z run precip was JYSTA as far north as ILM and NC SC state line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Woah... 120 SLP... 997 just SE of ILM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted January 19, 2015 Author Share Posted January 19, 2015 FOOKING BOW WOW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 lol looks like the Canadian Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Ok, I might be in on this one. Hmmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Ensembles should be plenty tasty this afternoon if they take the OP idea... EURO ropes us all back in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Ok, I might be in on this one. Hmmm Let us know so we know whether to track it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 975 at 132 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Let us know so we know whether to track it Ok, I'll keep you posted. And you be sure to keep us posted with informative posts like "euro". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 966 @ hr138. Maybe it will punch the +nao right in the face. eta: good god, 961 @ hr144. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 At hr 120, DCA is around 30 and 850s are -2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 JMA looks interesting too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 FOOKING BOW WOW Amazing change there from earlier. Where does it move the low beyond that time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Ensembles should be plenty tasty this afternoon if they take the OP idea... EURO ropes us all back in It didn't rope me in. Partly cloudy doesn't excite me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 h5 closes off @ 132 and bombs away from there. Close that thing off 6 hours earlier and it would crush us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 h5 closes off @ 132 and bombs away from there. Close that thing off 6 hours earlier and it would crush us. Yup, which is why IMO we will likely see some "interesting" ensembles... very impressive 12z suite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Ensembles should be plenty tasty this afternoon if they take the OP idea... EURO ropes us all back in I knew you would be good luck...at least for now...but I was hoping you would do a BOOM post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Still looks like the northern edge only grazes us. Decent hit for se va and nc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted January 19, 2015 Author Share Posted January 19, 2015 This is rapidly Changing situation. The TREND over the past 3 model cycles is for this low to come "Up the coast " BUT because of the Upper air pattern over Noth America it can only come so far North. This Low isnt going to Cape Cod or the benchmark ( 40N and 70 W).2. this is NOT 10 days out or 7 days .. its 5 days and closing FAST. keep in Mind The forecasts have to be OUT there by JAN 23... today is the 19th... so do the math 3 this event does have the support of MJO which is currently in Phase 8 (weak phase 8) which in JAN/ FEB / MAR is one of the east coast snowstorm phases4 Low level temps over CENTRAL VA are marginal . This means right near the ground it might be 33 or 34 and snow/ rain mix which does not accumulate....( this appllies o central NC central / eastern va) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeVa Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Temps blow down here. I can see the rain snow line setting up a la 12/19/09 where RIC north gets clobbered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted January 19, 2015 Author Share Posted January 19, 2015 it needs to be kept in mind that the snow storm climatology for central and Southern Virginia as well as North Carolina is substantially different than it is for the big cities of I-95. Of course sometimes you get one of these massive systems which affects everybody... But most of the time that is not the case. In this setup we can see the European model has the southern shortwave with a distinct positive TILT at108 hours. There is also a 50 / 50 Low over southeastern Canada and the classic position but the POLAR branch of the Jetstream is not dropping in and phasing with the shortwave and the subtropical jet. Because the southern shortwave is already passed the lodge and two of the Mississippi delta -- 90 West Long -- it only has so much room before it can develop a neutral and then potentially negative tilt. On the European and Canadian models this southern shortwave eventually does develop a negative till but by that time the whole system is well off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 The euro has still another chance around the 27th so there may be a couple of chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Oh wow, big changes on the euro ensembles compared to last night. A lot of spread but a substantial increase in members that get solid precip in here. Last night was virtually nothing for us. Now around 15 or so decent hits and plenty of grazes.... Mean precip is around .20-.25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Oh wow, big changes on the euro ensembles compared to last night. A lot of spread but a substantial increase in members that get solid precip in here. Last night was virtually nothing for us. Now around 15 or so decent hits and plenty of grazes.... Mean precip is around .20-.25 Any SECS type hits? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Any SECS type hits? 10 solids and another 5 lesser or very close by. Night and day compared to last night. MSLP track is from the FL panhandle to just off obx on up. A bit east but considering how different from last night, it's night and day. Still not a good storm setup for us. We would have to luck into it in many ways in out area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 I pretty much have no stance on threats outside 72 hours and even then there are pretty significant fluctuations. Huge storm probably unlikely with the pattern. Otherwise have no clue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 10 solids and another 5 lesser or very close by. Night and day compared to last night. MSLP track is from the FL panhandle to just off obx on up. A bit east but considering how different from last night, it's night and day. Still not a good storm setup for us. We would have to luck into it in many ways in out area. EPS is up the coast too, just outside BM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robPAwx Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 This isn't a 10 day fantasy storm, today is the 19th do the math. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 I pretty much have no stance on threats outside 72 hours and even then there are pretty significant fluctuations. Huge storm probably unlikely with the pattern. Otherwise have no clue Pretty much the only way to go. 72 hrs. It has been frustrating to see the flip flop in the models, so much so that you don't want to look anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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