AlaskaETC Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 one of the mets said that the new gfs does have a warm bias on surface temps soooo Hmm...thanks for the insight. Much appreciated! Makes me more optimistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 No closed low at H7 and no good precip rates now of the 850 line. Man looked much better for at least getting 6+ somewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 This is another one of our potential storms where it is dripping and melting away by the afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 This is another one of our potential storms where it is dripping and melting away by the afternoon. It's the best we do with a +NAO I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 The old GFS as said had issues on the NW side and would be light with QPF. This run shows that, but does the GFS classic run with a weaker low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 If this was the old GFS I would hedge towads the NW extent of heaviest precip being underdone. No idea about the new gfs. Gotta sweat it out either way. It seems with this storm, the good QPF is in the warm sector, but we know better....north and west will do better as usual....I think is people have measured expectations, and don't mind some mixing or even rain, this might be ok....we can't expect 6"+ every time there is a low off the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 This is another one of our potential storms where it is dripping and melting away by the afternoon. At least we're not dealing with March sun angle that incinerates it within seconds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 As others have noted, it looks a little weak/dry on the NW side...but soundings are ok (if you know to expect taint). >double what 6z dropped <bright side> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 >double what 6z dropped <bright side> Oh? I didn't even check 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 This is another one of our potential storms where it is dripping and melting away by the afternoon. yes...though I am not putting too much stock in the GFS, until we understand the new one better....We know the old one was terrible with coastals....and I am not a model basher per se'....I am amazed that we can model the atmosphere with such precision at such leads.....but I am putting a lot more stock in the euro for this threat than I even would normally... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 yes...though I am not putting too much stock in the GFS, until we understand the new one better....We know the old one was terrible with coastals....and I am not a model basher per se'....I am amazed that we can model the atmosphere with such precision at such leads.....but I am putting a lot more stock in the euro for this threat than I even would normally... Me too. It's like forgetting everything you know about something and starting from scratch. At least when we're living on the edge. If the column was solid we would only be discussing qpf. Not the case here and not sure how to judge the gfs. Could be spot on. Who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 12z GGEM very juicy once again... hr 48 SLP in extreme SW FL 54 -- 1011mb SLP in SE AL 60 -- 1009 mb SLP in S GA Incoming at 60! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 12z GGEM very juicy once again... hr 48 SLP in extreme SW FL 54 -- 1011mb SLP in SE AL they are all juicy in the southeast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 66 -- 1005 SE NC 72 -- 998 just offshore Delmarva 78 -- 989 east of ACY 1"+ QPF DCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 66 -- 1005 SE NC 72 -- 998 just offshore Delmarva 78 -- 989 east of ACY 1"+ QPF DCA GFS gave JYO .19. I am getting as much from the clipper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 How do temps look? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 How do temps look? Right around freezing... 32-33 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ezweather Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Plus we have that system to keep an eye on Monday. At least we have something to track and it passes time. I do agree it will be a marginal snow event. For the moment, I'm just monitoring how it tracks and where we can tap the cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 If we could get rid of the sleet profile, we would do very well based off the QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 This is hr 66. Stupid 850's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 This is hr 66. Stupid 850's gem66.JPG Lol, nice Zorro 850's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Not as much snow as there was in the 0z run? A couple of inches? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 This is hr 66. Stupid 850's gem66.JPG I don't buy that random zigzag of the 850 line.... we should be snowing to beat the band then... esp since its at night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 I don't buy that random zigzag of the 850 line.... we should be snowing to beat the band then... esp since its at night night time has nothing to do with 850 temps. I have seen heavy freezing rain at night with temps in the teens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 I don't buy that random zigzag of the 850 line.... we should be snowing to beat the band then... esp since its at night GFS has the same thing but it collapsed back south once precip moved through. We are livin on the edge with this one. No two ways around it. I won't discount any marginal temp stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 12z UKIE hr 72 QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 I think the track is starting to gain some consensus for a Pamlico Sound / Inner Banks NC to just off ORF exit point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 This is hr 66. Stupid 850's gem66.JPG And by the time 850s crash for most of this forum, surface temperatures start skyrocketing for back edge stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 GEM is too wet, and since wet = warmth, we're OK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 12z GEFS look pretty nice, closest approach of 850 0C line is at hr 72, but it stays just south and east of DC metro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.