yoda Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 06z GFS at 60 hrs has SLP just offshore of FL peninsula at 1012mb 66 -- 1012mb SLP near TAL 72 -- 1008mb SLP near Charleston, SC 75 -- 1005mb SLP near ILM Hopefully this run of the GFS is just an abberation... probably will check ensembles to see if they are same or different than the OP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 According to the GFS, it's 41F at 18Z Saturday. The Euro is 34F. Both at DCA. Ridiculous disparity at this point. I'm betting Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 FWIW, here's an edited (for relevance to Mid-Atl) excerpt of a post by Baroclinic Zone in the NE forum: 00z Euro/GFS Ensm both have a track just outside the BM. Tough to argue against them right now 06z Op GFS looks out of sync with the 00z OP/ENSM and 06 Ensm runs so I would discount it at this time until we see what the 12z run does today. Still plenty of time for the track to adjust on this one. I don't [see] a westward track being a threat given the progressive nature of the overall hemispheric pattern as well as the upstream kicker that will be knocking on it's heel over the GL. A track inside the BM could still happen... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 What does BM stand for? Benchmark for SNE at 40 N 70 W......the BM is a little bit different down here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Benchmark for SNE - 40N 70W My takeaway from Baro's post, FWIW, is that the 6z GFS is presently an outlier, and a track that hugs the coastline for a while longer than it indicates remains more likely. That would be a more wound-up solution, but not necessarily better for us, if it's too far west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Took a look at Euro for BWI, Approximately 1" of precipitation beginning around midnight Friday. Should start as snow with surface temperatures at or just below freezing. 850 T rise overnight and looks to change to sleet? by morning but then back to snow by noon or so. (90 HR skew T likely a snow sounding). So an inch of snow, followed by 1.5" of sleet, followed by 2 inches of snow. One to watch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Decent amount of moisture in the GOM at hr 39 on 12z NAM with a 1013mb SLP located south of LA in the GOM 42 -- 1012mb SLP just south of NO in LA 48 -- 1011mb SLP just south of Mobile Bay in AL 51 -- 1010mb SLP in extreme W FL panhandle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 1014mb low (?) comes ashore near Alabama at 48hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 1012mb low moves over the panhandle at 57hrs. Is that a weak high I see? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 1012mb low moves over the panhandle at 57hrs. Is that a weak high I see? I think that's what the H means. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 60 -- 1010mb SLP in S GA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Light snow near DC around 60hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 I think that's what the H means. Looking at MSLP plots on InstantWeatherMaps...no Hs or Ls...just numbers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 I think that's what the H means. Think I'll camp out in this thread. The clipper has angered me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 I think that's what the H means. Our bench if Yoda isn't around. Give him a break. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Looks a little warm at 63hrs. Low off the coast of SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 63 -- 1010mb SLP E SC, down by CHS 66 -- 1006mb SLP by ILM in SE NC 69 -- SLP over OBX 72 -- SLP east of Ocean City (998 mb) 75 -- 992mb SLP east of Ocean City Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Nothing better than PBP of a crappy model we can all get for free. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 63 -- 1010mb SLP E SC, down by CHS 66 -- mb SLP by ILM in SE NC Is someone going to be doing a pbp on the JMA too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 The NAM does continue the un-amped look that the 6z GFS showed. But its the late hours of the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Nothing better than PBP of a crappy model we can all get for free. PBP filled with ???? And assumptions and I thinks...thrilling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 996mb low off the Delmarva at 75, looks warm for DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 PBP filled with ???? And assumptions and I thinks...thrilling Uh, I actually look at the map and don't assume Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Nothing better than PBP of a crappy model we can all get for free. You're on fire today. I think the same thing but it's harmless. And some people might not have access to the models. I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 NW VA, E WV and S PA get hammered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 996mb low off the Delmarva at 75, looks warm for DC. ??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Uh, I actually look at the map and don't assume Not you silly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 996mb low off the Delmarva at 75, looks warm for DC. How warm is it? What level? Eyeballing it or did you check soundings? Where is it warm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 How warm is it? What level? Eyeballing it or did you check soundings? Where is it warm? I checked the 2m temperatures, and snowfall, looks warm for DC and south, N and W is fine though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Nothing better than PBP of a crappy model we can all get for free. I am in meetings and busy! It makes it easier.. but leaves me with all kinds of questions.. which makes it kind of bad! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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