stormtracker Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Be glad it's the NAM as the surface low track is a bad one. Too far west. Yeah, its tucked in there good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 78 hours..sfc is below freezing, but sneaky warm layer snow...taint....snow I can live with that in this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 that radar signature certainly suggested it would warm since we have no strong High to the north sfc is surprisingly cold... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 snow...taint....snow I can live with that in this winter Yeah, it's definitely taint city..warm nose from 800 to 950...but surface is kinda odd in that it's close to freezing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 snow...taint....snow I can live with that in this winter 775-875 is our fun warm layer per soundings Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Yeah, its tucked in there good Th e850 low is in WV at 81 hours. That suggests above 850 it's probably even warmer than at 850. I'd have to check the soundings when they get on Twister to verify where the warm layer is, but the cold surface could be real west of the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 those heavy returns in WV were sort of a hint that it was bringing gulf heat along with gulf moisture generally, if the heaviest returns are in western VA, it's better, at least in this humble weenie's experience Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
feloniousq Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 It's the NAM at 75 hours. Let's set it as the west-most bookmark and reel it in on the other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 sfc is surprisingly cold... SREFS showed the same thing...colder down low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 775-875 is our fun warm layer per soundings Winds out of the SW at those layers? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 sfc is surprisingly cold...NAM has a huge sfc cold bias lately. At least in general. I have trouble even using its temps sometimes in forecasts the GFS has been so far superior this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Pretty much an ice storm on the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 only a little over 1/2" qpf on the NAM Euro was much wetter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 NAM has a huge cold bias lately. At least in general. I have trouble even using its temps sometimes in forecasts the GFS has been so far superior this winter. Yeah..I mean, I'm not really taking ANY model verbatim this far out, especially the NAM. We just need to realize that we're gonna taint. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Th e850 low is in WV at 81 hours. That suggests above 850 it's probably even warmer than at 850. I'd have to check the soundings when they get on Twister to verify where the warm layer is, but the cold surface could be real west of the city. Anything to prevent this from becoming an apps runner? Heck we got time for it to trend further west. Gotta stay awake for GFS now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Yeah..I mean, I'm not really taking ANY model verbatim this far out, especially the NAM. We just need to realize that we're gonna taint. I'm mostly hoping it's at least a small percentage non taint. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Pretty much an ice storm on the NAM. Which is not even remotely plausible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Morgantown to UNV jackpot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Boy...that's not looking bad at JYO...tad warm at 750 and 800 but not much and they crash quickly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 It's the NAM, you guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 I think the 72-84hr NAM has been thoroughly analyzed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Frederick the closest location to stay all snow from what I tell by a quick perusal http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM80km/NAM_kfdk.txt so it wouldn't take that much for us even on this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 driest noreaster ever. Next Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 I think the 72-84hr NAM has been thoroughly analyzed. oh man, just 1 or 2 more looks??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 we get dry slotted on this run. But the surface appears colder because there is some cold air damning evident, with a 1033 High between this low and the Hudson Bay low getting squeezed. Nam could be overdoing the damning or catching on to some small scale cold surface trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 It's the NAM, you guys. It is the NAM. the one disquieting thing is the lack of a high to the north and the tendency for models to bring lows farther west. You can see that pretty clearly on the GEFS ens mean and on the recent Euro. I sometimes think that's a systematic bias when there is no blocking present but right now really all you can do is say is precipitation is likely. The euro ens mean also is kind of warm but that is due to having westerly members skewing the temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 FWIW, 00z HI-RES NAM at 60 has the SLP in extreme S MS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 there is a nice little CAD nose evident on the HI-RES as well which would explain the colder surface temps. That High between the two lows is squeezing down the east side of the apps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 00z GFS briefly has a closed h5 low out in NM at 48... 00z NAM did not have that... though by 54, h5 is open in SW At 57, SLP is 1011mb and located just south of LA in N GOM At hr 69, 1010mb SLP crossing into W FL At hr 75, 1010mb SLP just off coast of SC near CHS 78 -- on SC/NC border just south of ILM at 1007mb; snowing in DCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 GFS has low just off of MYR, snowing at 78h here. Hanging on to snow sounding at 81 hours at DCA. Low is just off of ILM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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