stormtracker Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Looks like snow soundings to me at DCA from 90-96... isothermal? That's what I thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Looks like snow soundings to me at DCA from 90-96... isothermal? probably snow at 90 hours or damn close... though It is probably silly to be parsing nuances at 90 hours on a global model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 That's what I thought. we probably get only 40% of our QPF after 90 hours... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 I "think" that first of 2 storms in 1/87 lacked decent HP to our north too, so if memory serves, it's possible I recall it shutting off just before a change imby SE of BWI Stayed up all night studying for a trig/functions test. Snow started IMBY (FFax County) at just the right time for school to be canceled. Ending up having multiple days off with the multiple events, and it was a glorious year to graduate HS as seniors did not need to make up missed snow days at that time. Still ended up failing the trig/functions test, even with the extra time to study (which was spent outside in the snow). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 probably snow at 90 hours or damn close... though It is probably silly to be parsing nuances at 90 hours on a global model Its all we have for next 3 hours until the 00z suite starts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 FYI, for now we're talking about the Monday event (GFS whoa) and any subsequent events, here http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/45397-january-medlong-range-disco-part-2/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 So the consensus is it's somewhere in between a washout and 1/26/11. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 18z GEFS mean looks good to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 18z GEFS mean looks good to me Some rainers but we can live with the majority Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 18z GEFS mean looks good to me Many of the members I saw were good. They mostly looked warm for you guys...at least with the low southeast of you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Some rainers but we can live with the majority <snip> I count 3 rainers in there with the other 9 being snow ETA: Looks like all of them are snow at 96, besides 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 I count 3 rainers in there with the other 9 being snow ETA: Looks like all of them are snow at 96, besides 1 I could easily see a snow-rain-snow scenario in the cities close burbs. Front end waa precip hitting a marginal but still ok airmass should start as snow. Dead of night timing helps. Then a transition to rain until the low hits and gets north of our latitude. Hard to say. Should be fun and a good lesson on how to analyze a really tough setup for ptype forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 I could easily see a snow-rain-snow scenario in the cities close burbs. Front end waa precip hitting a marginal but still ok airmass should start as snow. Dead of night timing helps. Then a transition to rain until the low hits and gets north of our latitude. Hard to say. Should be fun and a good lesson on how to analyze a really tough setup for ptype forecasts. Sort of reminds me of 2/13/14. Not sure of similarities in the upper-air pattern, but marginal sfc, big storm, and snow-rain-snow make me think of last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Looks like the GFS is faster overall with system than the Euro. Seems to often be the case. I think both models did this with the Thanksgiving storm and the GFS ended up being too fast and the Euro ended up being closer to right in duration of storm. I guess since the GFS doesn't take the precip field as far north it shortens the storm's duration. This could affect any backside snow for areas that see rain and are expecting a flip back to snow. Maybe I'm just splitting hairs but it's just an observation. Still an eternity left before anything is concrete. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Just checked the soundings on twisterdata.com for the 18z GFS. Better than I thought they'd look. Basically 950 on down is at or above freezing but the worst layer (1000) is only 1.1 degrees above freezing. I only checked for DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 I talk a bit about y'alls region if y'all want to watch...TY if not, no worries. Hey everyone, I know we all want some wintry weather, but you have to admit, the weather has been very nice lately. Lets talk about the storm coming out of the western gulf of mexico for Thur thru Sat. My thoughts and my forecast and we talk super clipper as well. Check out the video for more. Thanks for watching and sharing and liking my page. https://www.facebook.com/ChriswxmanSimmons Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Bob, I tend to agree with you on this. I believe all start as snow, and we all get white rain, rain, or some combo of white rain/rain for a period of time, then finish as snow. If this verifies there would be a tight accum gradient to the southeast of I/95 and to the NW of I-95. Pretty much the norm for marginal events. But I think even those who mix or switch to rain score some pretty good front end totals before the transition. Backend accums are always a crapshoot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 87 hr MSLP from 21z SREFs -- this tells me that it won't be so amped up as some models show and that a majority of the SREFs have the SLP around Norfolk at this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 I assume this is good? Weaker storm less warm intrusion I would think...how about stronger but more east..not sure if that would keep the precip too far offshore...need a Goldilocks track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 87 hr MSLP from 21z SREFs -- this tells me that it won't be so amped up as some models show and that a majority of the SREFs have the SLP around Norfolk at this time sref_namer_087_mslp.gif How does the 87hr SREF tell you it won't be as amped up as the operational global forecast models predict? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 87 hr MSLP from 21z SREFs -- this tells me that it won't be so amped up as some models show and that a majority of the SREFs have the SLP around Norfolk at this time Less amped than Euro for sure and the trough isn't as sharp on the 500 map; although I guess you could argue a mean of multiple members would likely be less amped than an OP run of a model. I'd certainly take the Euro over the SREF but it's another tool to analyze while we wait for the rest of the 0z suite to come in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 How does the 87hr SREF tell you it won't be as amped up as the operational global forecast models predict? Trough isn't as sharp as the 12z EURO had it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Trough isn't as sharp as the 12z EURO had it Yoda, it's a mean of a bunch of different forecast so it should not be as sharp. Averages damp waves because of timing differences, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 I really dont like the srefs. I find them to cause less clarity than focus. I suppose they are ok at trends one way or the other but overall I find little value. I only look at them when they are posted here. Not knocking anyone who posts them at all. Just stating my opinion on the ensemble Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Don't know about the sharpness of the trough on the mean, but if you loop the precip, the mean precip looks amped....and wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 I really dont like the srefs. I find them to cause less clarity than focus. I suppose they are ok at trends one way or the other but overall I find little value. I only look at them when they are posted here. Not knocking anyone who posts them at all. Just stating my opinion on the ensemble They are total crap. Looking at the 87HR SREF for guidance on extrapolating future low placement is a seriously weenie move and yoda should know better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 They are total crap. Looking at the 87HR SREF for guidance on extrapolating future low placement is a seriously weenie move and yoda should know better. Probably so, but they are the first one out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 They are total crap. Looking at the 87HR SREF for guidance on extrapolating future low placement is a seriously weenie move and yoda should know better. They are pretty bad. That being said, I don't know that Yoda was extrapolating, so I'd cut him some slack. Although comparing the mean to the Euro was Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 I really dont like the srefs. I find them to cause less clarity than focus. I suppose they are ok at trends one way or the other but overall I find little value. I only look at them when they are posted here. Not knocking anyone who posts them at all. Just stating my opinion on the ensemble I think it has it's uses but using the mean often can mislead. Sometimes not reaching clarity is a good thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 They are pretty bad. That being said, I don't know that Yoda was extrapolating, so I'd cut him some slack. Although comparing the mean to the Euro was I was more using it for placement of the SLP at hr 87 since there appeared to be a majority NE of where the mean has it.. but anyway yeah, poor idea by me... lets see what the rest of the NAM has in store for us tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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