Bob Chill Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 ensembles are always South and East except when we need them to be If we do get good snow out of this, it's surely one of the more jacked up ways to do it. The no high pressure storm for the ages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 The big difference is the way each model is handling the dynamics with the storm. GFS (hope the improvement helped) has quite a bit of dynamical cooling of the column as the precip moves through. The low is actually only 30-40 miles different in terms of position between the euro and GFS operational, but the mid-column (950-850) is about 2-3 degrees cooler on the GFS. If we get appreciable snow out of this it would be a good win for the GFS in something it historically hasn't done well in- precip dynamics. Time to buy American? Edit: I agree, Matt below..2-4 seems like a safe call. But I guess with this much QPF at stake, a wobble could mean the difference between <1 and 5+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 I don't really see why this is a big threat for the coastal plain...It seems very thread the needle to me...Of course anytime you get a deepening low off the coast in late January with a potential large amount of liquid, it will understandably pique everyone's interest....but it seems the margin for error is so so slight. Rain/mix to snow seems most likely...though the Euro does have a bias of being too far west and then adjusting south and east. 95% of threats aren't big 6"+ events...this seems like a mangled 2-4" type event to me..just my hunch,... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 At what point do we start believing the NAM's temperature profiles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 If we do get good snow out of this, it's surely one of the more jacked up ways to do it. The no high pressure storm for the ages. I "think" that first of 2 storms in 1/87 lacked decent HP to our north too, so if memory serves, it's possible I recall it shutting off just before a change imby SE of BWI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 I don't really see why this is a big threat for the coastal plain...It seems very thread the needle to me...Of course anytime you get a deepening low off the coast in late January with a potential large amount of liquid, it will understandably pique everyone's interest....but it seems the margin for error is so so slight. Rain/mix to snow seems most likely...though the Euro does have a bias of being too far west and then adjusting south and east. 95% of threats aren't big 6"+ events...this seems like a mangled 2-4" type event to me..just my hunch,... I'd take 2-4" of mash as the 2nd in 3-day snow event with another on the horizon but would, of course, prefer a snow event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Well we can hope. I like the little "typo" in the LWX disco:...LONG TERM ENSEMBLE MEMBERS CONTINUE TO TREND LOW PRESSURE CLOSER TOTHE COAST SATURDAY. LATEST MODEL RUNS SNOW THE PRECIPITATION SHIELDCOVERING THE ENTIRE AREA... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 I "think" that first of 2 storms in 1/87 lacked decent HP to our north too, so if memory serves, it's possible I recall it shutting off just before a change imby SE of BWI I was just going to reference that storm. There was much uncertainty with the forecast even the morning of the storm. I think the last forecast leading up to the onset of the precip was for 2-4 changing to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 I'd take 2-4" of mash as the 2nd in 3-day snow event with another on the horizon but would, of course, prefer a snow event same...most of our events are small <3"...That is usually a pretty good way to go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 I was just going to reference that storm. There was much uncertainty with the forecast even the morning of the storm. I think the last forecast leading up to the onset of the precip was for 2-4 changing to rain. I'd love to do a redux on both storms of 1/87 with Sat's event & next week.....possible if all the stars align Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 I was just going to reference that storm. There was much uncertainty with the forecast even the morning of the storm. I think the last forecast leading up to the onset of the precip was for 2-4 changing to rain. Wes references the event here: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2015/01/20/a-stormy-winter-pattern-sets-in-snow-chances-every-2-3-days-including-saturday-and-early-next-week/ He talks about it pretty fondly on this board from a forecasting perspective because IIRC he nailed it. Edited to add: Note that even before the 12Z Euro came out today, his stance was already favoring N and W for impact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 From eyeballing it (raw numbers not out yet), the Euro Ensemble mean snow (15 days) is 10" for DCA and about a foot for IAD. First time I've seen that this year. Lots of low probability threats adding up over over the next two weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 I'm thinking that our hope may be that the southern Canadian Low drifts further north in future modeling; that may eliminate some of its negative influence barring the perfect track, that could help I would think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 I'd love to do a redux on both storms of 1/87 with Sat's event & next week.....possible if all the stars align I'll take half the amount from each storm and be very happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Wes references the event here: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2015/01/20/a-stormy-winter-pattern-sets-in-snow-chances-every-2-3-days-including-saturday-and-early-next-week/ He talks about it pretty fondly on this board from a forecasting perspective because IIRC he nailed it. Edited to add: Note that even before the 12Z Euro came out today, his stance was already favoring N and W for impact. That's got to be one of the best calls ever because there was nothing easy about predicting that storm. Huge bust potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 18z GFS at 48 has a closed h5 low in W NM.... still closed but smaller at 54 1012 SLP south of Mobile Bay, AL at 66 72 -- 1011 SLP W FL near TAL 78 -- 1010 SLP in SW GA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 If I could, I would reach up into Canada and stab that low to death. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Precip up to DC at 84, 1007 SLP near CHS 87 -- 1003 MSLP near ILM 90 -- 1000 SLP by HSE 93 -- 997 SLP east of VA/NC border ~100 miles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 If I could, I would reach up into Canada and stab that low to death. Its a ton weaker on the GFS though than the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Its a ton weaker on the GFS though than the Euro Honestly, that's our only hope to thread the needle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 I haven't looked at soundings, but this is a really good run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 GFS is actually pretty decent at 90 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 SLP is bombing at 96.... 990 MB east of OC... 99 is 984mb east of ACY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 GFS is actually pretty decent at 90 hours. It is definitely mixy and warm for DC...I think that is going to be hard to escape...there is a warm nose much of the time, and then the BL/SFC is iffy...but we have to work with what we have to work with Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 I haven't looked at soundings, but this is a really good run 90-96 look good...warms just beyond 950mb...but maybe under 1c? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Just lock this one up please. Haven't seen soundings but looks mostly if not all snow 95 n-w. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 It is definitely mixy and warm for DC...I think that is going to be hard to escape...there is a warm nose much of the time, and then the BL/SFC is iffy...but we have to work with what we have to work with Track seems to be locking in somewhat, temps will be the main issue now...unless something else changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 It is definitely mixy and warm for DC...I think that is going to be hard to escape...there is a warm nose much of the time, and then the BL/SFC is iffy...but we have to work with what we have to work with ah, ok. I should prob do text output vs skew T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Just lock this one up please. Haven't seen soundings but looks mostly if not all snow 95 n-w. They're not pretty, but probably accumulating snow for the N and W burbs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 90-96 look good...warms just beyond 950mb...but maybe under 1c? Looks like snow soundings to me at DCA from 90-96... isothermal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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