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JAN 23-24 anyone ?


DTWXRISK

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Are people seriously locking in advections 4 days out?

Nobody is locking in anything. But the risk of this type of solution was staring us in the face before the run. Now we stare at the run and know it's not going to come easy.

ETA: and it was really close to a frozen solution. Surface was fine and 850's only 1 degree off for the most part.

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Taking a look at the column... 700 is fine, 850 and 925s are within 1 degree of 0c and surface is fine. Man that is close. Soundings are going to be tough to look at.

If we are talking 1 degree, that could be stuff that can change hours before the storm right? Nothing to sweat at the moment.

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If we are talking 1 degree, that could be stuff that can change hours before the storm right? Nothing to sweat at the moment.

 

Let's see what the Euro's ensembles say...  There's a shot at agreement further off the coast given the earlier trends.

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Taking a look at the column... 700 is fine, 850 and 925s are within 1 degree of 0c and surface is fine. Man that is close. Soundings are going to be tough to look at.

1C is in the noise of a 4 day prog, but it certainly highlights the borderline nature of this event without a high anchored to the north.  Both of the globals may be playing to their inherent biases also:  Euro is wound-up and west, GFS is farther east.  

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1C is in the noise of a 4 day prog, but it certainly highlights the borderline nature of this event without a high anchored to the north. Both of the globals may be playing to their inherent biases also: Euro is wound-up and west, GFS is farther east.

Track would be perfect with a measly 1020 hp in NY. lol.

But you're right. Last night was marginal and snowy. This afternoon is marginal and rainy. All within the envelope.

I'll be honest though. If we get a prolific precip producer on a solid track in late January and it ends up rain...it will get under my skin. And it will further prove that things are out of sync this winter for everyone. Been that way all year in the east half of the country.

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1C is in the noise of a 4 day prog, but it certainly highlights the borderline nature of this event without a high anchored to the north.  Both of the globals may be playing to their inherent biases also:  Euro is wound-up and west, GFS is farther east.

I'd personally throw all known GFS Op biases out the window until we understand the tendencies of the higher res version first.

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I'm going to ride the "Euro is always overamped" bias until the bitter end.  Alot of the ensembles look warm too.  Blah.

 

ETA: Alot of

 

Problem is we need the amped up solution to get it to come north far enough to get the moisture in here. Obviously its to early to worry about the details. But this one feels like a nail biter.

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