NinjaWarrior2 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 RGEM is showing some backend snow. 12z GFS is also close to backend flurries. I would rather have a dusting of snow on the backend then 2" on the front end washed away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 On 1/23/2015 at 3:12 PM, FairfaxVAsnowlover said: Are the WRFs worth looking into? They're really just baby NAMs. Maybe useful for thermal profiles a little bit. Probably not worth wasting time on in general though. They can have some utility for thunderstorms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 On 1/23/2015 at 3:16 PM, Fozz said: After the last clipper and with that Monday storm on the way, I don't really care what happens with this one As long as Sun-Mon pan out. I also could care less about tonight. Must be my new profile pics that is changing our luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Cobb data for the 12Z NAM run has 4.8" of snow at MRB, 6.5" at HGR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 12Z GFS is all rain... The low crosses somewhere not too far east of Charlotte, NC ETA: For metro areas, that is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 On 1/23/2015 at 3:28 PM, WVclimo said: Cobb data for the 12Z NAM run has 4.8" of snow at MRB, 6.5" at HGR. yeah, even with the mix bag still 6.5" for westminster per the nam before the rasn, frdz kick in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 On 1/23/2015 at 3:28 PM, WVclimo said: Cobb data for the 12Z NAM run has 4.8" of snow at MRB, 6.5" at HGR. And 12Z GFS is rain overnight, changing to non-accumulating snow tomorrow morning. Pretty poor agreement for an event 12 hrs away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 White Flag? Bring on Sunday!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 On 1/23/2015 at 3:46 PM, interstate said: White Flag? Bring on Sunday!!! Holding out until PG weighs in with his analysis Where he at? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 I think back-end snow looks more likely than front-end snow at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 On 1/23/2015 at 3:51 PM, WxUSAF said: I think back-end snow looks more likely than front-end snow at the moment. for you? front end looks nicer for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 On 1/23/2015 at 3:52 PM, mapgirl said: for you? front end looks nicer for me. On the GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 On 1/23/2015 at 3:52 PM, mapgirl said: for you? front end looks nicer for me.I don't what to make of this system. I have no idea or confidence in any outcome. For us it's a definite nowcast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 On 1/23/2015 at 3:56 PM, WxUSAF said: On the GFS? oh, yeah the GFS blows chunks. All rain tonight/snow tomorrow. Maybe. I'm hugging the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Not too different from the initial map... game on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 On 1/23/2015 at 3:56 PM, HighStakes said: I don't what to make of this system. I have no idea or confidence in any outcome. For us it's a definite nowcast. I agree. Definitely going to be watching temps closely today/tonight. But I think anything is to be expected for you and I. snow tonight, or rain, or sleet. or all three at once? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...WE WILL BE UPGRADING THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO A WINTER STORMWARNING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE CWA...ESSENTIALLYWASHINGTON AND ALLEGANY COUNTY IN MARYLAND...MUCH OF THE EASTERNWEST VIRGINIA PANHANDLE AND INTO FREDERICK COUNTY VIRGINIA. WEEXPECT A SW TO NE STRIPE OF SNOW TO OCCUR AND BRING 5 OR MOREINCHES OF SNOW IN THIS UPGRADED AREA. IN ADDITION...END TIMES WILLBE ADJUSTED FOR SOME OF THE REMAINING ADVISORY AREA. SNOW AMOUNTSWILL LIKELY TAPER OFF SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE SOUTHEAST AS A TIGHTGRADIENT OF SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS IS LIKELY TO OCCUR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
attml Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 The models are warmer than they should be - we are going to get more snow than what they are currently predicting with the potential for a lot more! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 I am going to the car wash. Works every time. But ain't no surprise this is torching. Hagerstown isn't that far away for road trip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 On 1/23/2015 at 3:52 PM, mapgirl said: for you? front end looks nicer for me. I honestly feel like this could go either way for us. It's so close. If precip holds together and comes in fast and hard we could get an isothermal profile right at 32 and thump snow most of the night. But moderate wont get it done. I could see just snow/sleet/rain mix all night with little accumulation also if the banding doesnt set up good. Going to just have to wait it out. My fear Monday for us is missing south not north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 On 1/23/2015 at 4:16 PM, psuhoffman said: I honestly feel like this could go either way for us. It's so close. If precip holds together and comes in fast and hard we could get an isothermal profile right at 32 and thump snow most of the night. But moderate wont get it done. I could see just snow/sleet/rain mix all night with little accumulation also if the banding doesnt set up good. Going to just have to wait it out. My fear Monday for us is missing south not north. yup -- was just whining to Ian via text about how i hate southern clippers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 On 1/23/2015 at 3:52 PM, mapgirl said: for you? front end looks nicer for me. I agree, front end here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 On 1/23/2015 at 4:18 PM, mapgirl said: yup -- was just whining to Ian via text about how i hate southern clippers With the flow the way it is I see no way this could turn the corner so if it starts south it will stay south... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Light snow here. 38 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 oh my. shenandoah co schools just announced 1 pm dismissal. smh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 On 1/23/2015 at 4:27 PM, EastCoast NPZ said: oh my. shenandoah co schools just announced 1 pm dismissal. smh. Page announcecd 130PM closing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 On 1/23/2015 at 4:19 PM, Sparky said: I agree, front end here. well, as long as the NAM is right. If the GFS is right, we will get back end stuff. Hard forecast for us northerners. On 1/23/2015 at 4:20 PM, psuhoffman said: With the flow the way it is I see no way this could turn the corner so if it starts south it will stay south... blah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 On 1/23/2015 at 4:34 PM, mapgirl said: well, as long as the NAM is right. If the GFS is right, we will get back end stuff. Hard forecast for us northerners. blah. why can't it be both? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 RGEM definitely likes the backend... not sure how reliable it is though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 On 1/23/2015 at 4:35 PM, Fozz said: RGEM definitely likes the backend... not sure how reliable it is thoughModels can't pin down deform bands to save their life. Have to just wait and see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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