BTRWx Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Are people seriously locking in advections 4 days out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACFD FIREMAN Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 It's a wet storm....around 1.2-1.9" areawide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 On 1/20/2015 at 6:24 PM, BTRWx said: Are people seriously locking in advections 4 days out?Nobody is locking in anything. But the risk of this type of solution was staring us in the face before the run. Now we stare at the run and know it's not going to come easy.ETA: and it was really close to a frozen solution. Surface was fine and 850's only 1 degree off for the most part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Euro is warm but I want to see more runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 On 1/20/2015 at 6:24 PM, ACFD FIREMAN said: It's a wet storm....around 1.2-1.9" areawide. Good........I'll take my chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 On 1/20/2015 at 6:21 PM, Bob Chill said: The low in Canada is a fair bit stronger this run. I'm sure that has something to do with losing the midlevels. Seems like that will be the running story with this storm. Any LP to our NW will dictate where it goes and how warm it will get Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 i just want a storm to track....even if it is going to bust with rain...at least i have something to look forward to seeing in the models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Taking a look at the column... 700 is fine, 850 and 925s are within 1 degree of 0c and surface is fine. Man that is close. Soundings are going to be tough to look at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 On 1/20/2015 at 6:27 PM, Ji said: i just want a storm to track....even if it is going to bust with rain...at least i have something to look forward to seeing in the models Exactly. Clippers are fine and all but they don't give up the goods like the coastals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACFD FIREMAN Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 On 1/20/2015 at 6:26 PM, WinterWxLuvr said: Good........I'll take my chances. Probably around .8+/- out your way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 On 1/20/2015 at 6:29 PM, Bob Chill said: Taking a look at the column... 700 is fine, 850 and 925s are within 1 degree of 0c and surface is fine. Man that is close. Soundings are going to be tough to look at. If we are talking 1 degree, that could be stuff that can change hours before the storm right? Nothing to sweat at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 On 1/20/2015 at 6:31 PM, PraetorianGuard said: If we are talking 1 degree, that could be stuff that can change hours before the storm right? Nothing to sweat at the moment. Let's see what the Euro's ensembles say... There's a shot at agreement further off the coast given the earlier trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 3 days ago, tomorrow was going to be too warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 its so close for Leesburg. 850 temps at 0 to .9. Surface temps 32-33. AT 12Z 24-JAN 0.1 0.9 1010 99 100 0.44 552 544SAT 18Z 24-JAN 0.6 0.1 1002 97 99 0.47 543 542SUN 00Z 25-JAN -2.0 -1.1 1000 90 7 0.18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Wouldn't sweat the specifics, we have a real storm to track, first one all season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 On 1/20/2015 at 6:29 PM, Bob Chill said: Taking a look at the column... 700 is fine, 850 and 925s are within 1 degree of 0c and surface is fine. Man that is close. Soundings are going to be tough to look at. 1C is in the noise of a 4 day prog, but it certainly highlights the borderline nature of this event without a high anchored to the north. Both of the globals may be playing to their inherent biases also: Euro is wound-up and west, GFS is farther east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 On 1/20/2015 at 6:49 PM, WxUSAF said: 1C is in the noise of a 4 day prog, but it certainly highlights the borderline nature of this event without a high anchored to the north. Both of the globals may be playing to their inherent biases also: Euro is wound-up and west, GFS is farther east.Track would be perfect with a measly 1020 hp in NY. lol. But you're right. Last night was marginal and snowy. This afternoon is marginal and rainy. All within the envelope. I'll be honest though. If we get a prolific precip producer on a solid track in late January and it ends up rain...it will get under my skin. And it will further prove that things are out of sync this winter for everyone. Been that way all year in the east half of the country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 On 1/20/2015 at 6:49 PM, WxUSAF said: 1C is in the noise of a 4 day prog, but it certainly highlights the borderline nature of this event without a high anchored to the north. Both of the globals may be playing to their inherent biases also: Euro is wound-up and west, GFS is farther east. I'd personally throw all known GFS Op biases out the window until we understand the tendencies of the higher res version first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 If you looked up "Marginal event" in a weather dictionary, this run of the Euro is what it would show. Going to be a close call it looks like unless we have some major changes with the low to our north. I agree with Bob. A 1020 high would probably get the job done here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 the borderline nature of this system is very typical of +NAO systems you just don't see a whole lot of "cold" storms w/o a -NAO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 On 1/20/2015 at 7:16 PM, Ellinwood said: I'd personally throw all known GFS Op biases out the window until we understand the tendencies of the higher res version first. True, good point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Looks like the EPS mean is even further west than the OP. The low center is almost over Ocean City as it passes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 On 1/20/2015 at 8:24 PM, lsukev5 said: Looks like the EPS mean is even further west than the OP. The low center is almost over Ocean City as it passes. I could tell just by looking at the snow maps ( ) that it was west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 On 1/20/2015 at 8:26 PM, Warrior Bigfoot said: I could tell just by looking at the snow maps ( ) that it was west. I'm going to ride the "Euro is always overamped" bias until the bitter end. Alot of the ensembles look warm too. Blah. ETA: Alot of Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 On 1/20/2015 at 8:19 PM, WxWatcher said: Anyone seen the ensembles? not great unless in the mtns.. lots of too close members Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 On 1/20/2015 at 8:28 PM, lsukev5 said: I'm going to ride the "Euro is always overamped" bias until the bitter end. Alot of the ensembles look warm too. Blah. ETA: Alot of Problem is we need the amped up solution to get it to come north far enough to get the moisture in here. Obviously its to early to worry about the details. But this one feels like a nail biter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Of course, Ji's favorite Euro Control run is a big hit 95 and NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 On 1/20/2015 at 8:43 PM, UVVmet84 said: Of course, Ji's favorite Euro Control run is a big hit 95 and NW. i feel like the euro control has been in the lead here. It had the big hit to the DC area before the Euro Op caught on. its my new favorite model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Noticeable shift nw with euro ens mean 850 @ 12z Saturday. Last night straddled 95. Today is close to PA border. Similar to the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 On 1/20/2015 at 8:48 PM, Bob Chill said: Noticeable shift nw with euro ens mean 850 @ 12z Saturday. Last night straddled 95. Today is close to PA border. Similar to the op. ensembles are always South and East except when we need them to be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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