DTWXRISK Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 big shift in 12z CMC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted January 19, 2015 Author Share Posted January 19, 2015 and now we see this on the 12z gefs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 I have been keeping an eye on it just in case... but looks a bit too far east still for much of anything... but definite shift west as you state It almost looks like it would come up the coast, but it takes a right turn by OBX and out to sea it goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted January 19, 2015 Author Share Posted January 19, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 I posted the NAVGEM for fun earlier. Euro ensembles not into it at all. Something like 4 members considered the option. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 12z UKIE 120 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 On 1/19/2015 at 5:27 PM, yoda said: 12z UKIE 120 GZ_D5_PN_120_0000.gif Not bad. Seems to be a lot more stream interaction in all the models today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 On 1/19/2015 at 5:25 PM, Bob Chill said: I posted the NAVGEM for fun earlier. Euro ensembles not into it at all. Something like 4 members considered the option. With UKIE/GGEM returning west some, I would not be surprised to to see EURO do same, or at least have a few more ensembles join Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 GEFS has only 1 member that brings precip of consequence here. Looks like 3 bring it to RIC. The rest look mostly like the op but with different timing. Not a good storm setup for us either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 On 1/19/2015 at 5:33 PM, Bob Chill said: GEFS has only 1 member that brings precip of consequence here. Looks like 3 bring it to RIC. The rest look mostly like the op but with different timing. Not a good storm setup for us either way. As of right now, not sure what big deal is for this threat besides it returning west some... agree that the setup is terrible for us... now watch the EURO pound us lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeVa Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Loving that 984 bomb off the coast on the CMC. Surprisingly the 850s are cooperating as well, but I just don't where the cold is coming from as there doesn't seem to be anything feeding the cold down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robertgny Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 On 1/19/2015 at 5:40 PM, yoda said: As of right now, not sure what big deal is for this threat besides it returning west some... agree that the setup is terrible for us... now watch the EURO pound us lol You realize the Nogaps looks like Jan 6 - 7 1996 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 On 1/19/2015 at 5:42 PM, SeVa said: Loving that 984 bomb off the coast on the CMC. Surprisingly the 850s are cooperating as well, but I just don't where the cold is coming from as there doesn't seem to be anything feeding the cold down. It's January, cold has the advantage right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robertgny Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_loop.cgi?area=nvg_namer&dtg=2015011912∏=500τ=000&set=All Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 On 1/19/2015 at 5:42 PM, robertgny said: You realize the Nogaps looks like Jan 6 - 7 1996 Uh no... and its a good track for lots of rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 On 1/19/2015 at 5:48 PM, yoda said: Uh no... and its a good track for lots of rain Agree, It is rather peculiar when the NAVGEM is the most wound up, western model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 On 1/19/2015 at 5:48 PM, yoda said: Uh no... and its a good track for lots of rain Maybe he meant Jan 15, 1996. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 This should be an interesting Euro run to see if it decides to latch on to the GGEM/UKIE idea or declines to join the "west party" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robertgny Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 On 1/19/2015 at 5:52 PM, yoda said: This should be an interesting Euro run to see if it decides to latch on to the GGEM/UKIE idea or declines to join the "west party" Im more interested in what the JMA has to say, since it's doing better than the Ecmwf right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Lol navgem, nuff said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 I'm interested since DT is interested. He must feel it might pull west more or he wouldn't bother to start thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Someone should start the jan 26-30 thread so I can start the early feb HECS thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 On 1/19/2015 at 6:01 PM, Ian said: Someone should start the jan 26-30 thread so I can start the early feb HECS thread. Name it "Triple Phaser Event!!!!!one!!@!!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Meh. The CMC has been sh*t in almost every event. Still too far S and E for us to worry about it. It's a tease and I'm starting to get frustrated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted January 19, 2015 Author Share Posted January 19, 2015 yes it is too far s and e for DCA /BWI to be a significant event and points north BUT for central and interior se va and central NC... this looks like a ball game Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted January 19, 2015 Author Share Posted January 19, 2015 at 102 hrs 12z euro is further N with north edge of precip and surface Low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Euro is ejecting the sw quicker and heights not as suppressive in front. It's going to shift N. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 This should be an interesting run with the s/w energy not being held back at 96 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robertgny Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Ecmwf looks way better than 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 On 1/19/2015 at 6:17 PM, yoda said: This should be an interesting run with the s/w energy not being held back at 96 When you do the model pbp good things happen...that energy being held back is what killed before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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