WinterWolf Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 LOL, Kevin you were just whining about how cold and dry it's going to be a couple days ago. And remember, you are the one who cancelled this clipper for the MLK day event. It was the MLK event you said we needed to watch, and that the clipper was "Dead." So nice to see you change your Tune LMAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 You and me on this one dude. let the other whine and think they're getting a dusting. We are hand in hand for 2-4 pike south 1-3 north I'm not gonna start throwing out specifics like that but I wouldn't be surprised if we saw a smattering of advisory amounts. The shortwave is a really good track for us. The only problem is that leading ribbon of vorticity out ahead of the main shortwave sort of shunts the best low level baroclinicity offshore, however, it's not as obvious as other times where this happens. Tip mentioned a very nice area of mid level saturation where goes from central NY right through SNE. This is in response to the favorable shortwave track. This is where models may underestimate the band of light snow to the north of the vortmax track because they like to focus precip near the low level forcing. It's sort of the same idea on why models might under estimate the precip on the northwest periphery of the mid level center in a coastal. I'm not talking big amounts or anything but the shortwave track tells me to not trash this threat yet because the pretty QPF maps aren't showing what everyone wants. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 I've said that as well. It's a classic 700 saturation with weak frontogenesis and that 950-900 east flow over a cold dome, probably a coastal front too. Could be a C-2" deal for a wide areas despite model QPF. Maybe more. Of course it may weaken too, but I would not rip QPF off verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 The Happy hour GFS does not share the same enthusiasm.........lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 I've said that as well. It's a classic 700 saturation with weak frontogenesis and that 950-900 east flow over a cold dome, probably a coastal front too. Could be a C-2" deal for a wide areas despite model QPF. Maybe more. Of course it may weaken too, but I would not rip QPF off verbatim. Yeah. We also want a euro or nam shortwave look. The GGEM and GFS look a bit less favorable. The vort track near LI or south coast is what favors us the most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 I just want to see Hunchie in a cheerleader outfit. You know he's secretly hoping someone scores a four so he can show us his fetish. Decent setup lousy model output,chance of an overpreformer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 I keep asking myself over and over and over why folks are looking at the GFS? i mean for what purpose? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 I keep asking myself over and over and over why folks are looking at the GFS? i mean for what purpose? Gfs is really struggling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Yeah. We also want a euro or nam shortwave look. The GGEM and GFS look a bit less favorable. The vort track near LI or south coast is what favors us the most. GFS has hints of it, but not nearly like the EC guidance. It's too bad the s/w is so stretched out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 If its gfs gem versus the others then i feel fine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 If its gfs gem versus the others then i feel fine Don't forget we are arguing trivial amounts anyways. It's a dusting vs like maybe 1-2 or something like that. It's not like we are 1-2 on the GFS vs 6-8 on the euro or something like that. In this winter though, minor discrepancies are highly exaggerated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Don't forget we are arguing trivial amounts anyways. It's a dusting vs like maybe 1-2 or something like that. It's not like we are 1-2 on the GFS vs 6-8 on the euro or something like that. In this winter though, minor discrepancies are highly exaggerated. Yes...we've seen people get overly obsessed with 0.7" vs 1.9" on model outputs...it's trival for the most part. The Euro/NAM shortwaves would at least give us a chance to over-perform in this with some 2"+ amounts IMHO. Otherwise its a C-1" type deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 I don't see how it's possible anyone in SnE sees less than 1 inch. Again.. Just pretend the Gfs does not exist and make your forecasts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Yes...we've seen people get overly obsessed with 0.7" vs 1.9" on model outputs...it's trival for the most part. The Euro/NAM shortwaves would at least give us a chance to over-perform in this with some 2"+ amounts IMHO. Otherwise its a C-1" type deal. Will- is this still a Wed time frame deal or does it linger into Thur? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 On Ryans station, Brad Field just had his forecast for this...."Doubts it will be anything more than a Coating," was his call. Maybe it overperforms? Would be nice to see an overachiever even if it's the big 2 inch amounts that it is we are talking about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Will- is this still a Wed time frame deal or does it linger into Thur? Its definitely more Wed night and easily could linger much of the day Thursday...esp out east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 I don't see how it's possible anyone in SnE sees less than 1 inch. Again.. Just pretend the Gfs does not exist and make your forecastsEven if you exclude the GFS there is a high probability that many don't see over an inch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Even if you exclude the GFS there is a high probability that many don't see over an inch I don't agree with that at all. There's a higher prob of seeing over an inch than under Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 I don't agree with that at all. There's a higher prob of seeing over an inch than underWe have some of the best mets on here who like a portion of the look which is encouraging but I just hate to see some of the gaps in the precip shield I've seen on the models. Might be a localized sort of thing. We'll know better soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Inches are hard to come by thesedays, relying on norluns to provide a fresh coat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 If its gfs gem versus the others then i feel fineIt's not. It's every model vs. some old fashioned meteorology, and maybe the Srefs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewbeer Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Damn, 7 pages in 23 hours for 1-2+. We need a real storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nwbostonwx Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 For what it's worth the 18z rgem at h54 looks like it's going to produce, and 1/2 of its 12z ensemble members look good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Damn, 7 pages in 23 hours for 1-2+. We need a real storm. For maybe 1-2 plus. Most of these have gone poof even before Ray has a tirade Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Rah rah sis boom bah This Clipper has zip to 2" so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 The SREFS finally came to reality Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 The SREFS finally came to reality Yeah that wasn't a surprise, those ARW members out to lunch finally figured it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Yeah that wasn't a surprise, those ARW members out to lunch finally figured it out. I still think someone will end up with 4-5 inches from this somewhere in a box bounded by say NYC to BDL to PYM to ACK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 I still think someone will end up with 4-5 inches from this somewhere in a box bounded by say NYC to BDL to PYM to ACK Wow. Seems aggressive but that would be nice. I'm not convinced of more than C-2 right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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