RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 The 24-25 time frame bears watching on euro but if that craps out, im folding winter out of turn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Hang back snows over most of us Thursday on the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 I didn't say it should be used as the go-to model outside of 120 hours...I just said that it doesn't have those types of major swings within 72 hours any more than the other major globals do, i.e. rarely. And neither did i say inside 72 hrs, Where did you come up with that? I said it has wild run to run swings at times, I did not mention anything about 72 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 The same signal as 00z and the signal on the GFS too. Probably a lot of mood fluff verbatim. Maybe an inch or two in lucky spots as is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 That's a nice 1-3 deal for all of SNE . Not tossed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Tough to bite on the IVT idea and where Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Honestly, that's probably about the best to hope for. You'll have spots with a dusting and others get a lucky inch or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Honestly, that's probably about the best to hope for. You'll have spots with a dusting and others get a lucky inch or two. That's a KU this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 And neither did i say inside 72 hrs, Where did you come up with that? I said it has wild run to run swings at times, I did not mention anything about 72 hrs 72 hours...as in the current time frame that this storm will be occurring... Canadian is meh. Coatings and mood snow for many. It sucks anyways even if it showed a blizzard which it could very well do the next run then have it 500 miles west on the one after that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 And let's not assume this is the final solution. As it is its a long duration light snow event for Sne. Could be 3-4 in spots as models hone in tomorriw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 72 hours...as in the current time frame that this storm will be occurring... My point was it sucks, How hard is that to understand? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 That's a nice 1-3 deal for all of SNE . Not tossed The only place in SNE that gets more than 1" is BOS with 1.1". Everyone else is C-1" verbatim on the EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 And let's not assume this is the final solution. As it is its a long duration light snow event for Sne. Could be 3-4 in spots as models hone in tomorriw Right, it could completely miss too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Right, it could completely miss too. Yup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 My point was it sucks, How hard is that to understand? I understand...and my point is that within 72 hours, it doesn't suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 The only place in SNE that gets more than 1" is BOS with 1.1". Everyone else is C-1" verbatim on the EURO. You gotta look past qpf. That setup will lead at least to a general 1-3 inch swath Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 700mb fields were very moist at hour 72. I would think someone would get hit hard with the inverted trough. Why aren't inverted troughs more consistent in giving a narrow region like 12-18" instead of 3-4"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Right, it could completely miss too.No that doesn't appear to be an option Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Nobody is getting hit hard..lol. 700mb fields moist is usually a good flag. Given light onshore flow, it's usually good for C-2" type stuff more or less. Some get skunked, some can get more. It also could totally flatten out and weaken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 No that doesn't appear to be an option Certainly is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Honestly, that's probably about the best to hope for. You'll have spots with a dusting and others get a lucky inch or two. A lot of the GEFS seem to be hinting at that. This isn't going to be a bomb, but the potential is still there for a low ceiling event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 ah, I don't think you guys saw the same thing I did on this particular Euro run. To paraphrase what I just posted in the model thread ... there is a 700mb saturated band from NY through SNE, collocated with 1.5 lat N of mid level jet max(es) ...There could be a weak frontogenetic entity there, producing a band of light to moderate snow...or perhaps shredded bands, but snowing nonetheless. The low is flat (Oh lord...) and weak, okay, but just remember: sometimes little critters can bite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 We'll take the 1-3" inverted trof, especially seeing as the clipper misses. Bonus. Especially since the clipper has looked like garbage for a couple days now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 700mb fields were very moist at hour 72. I would think someone would get hit hard with the inverted trough. Why aren't inverted troughs more consistent in giving a narrow region like 12-18" instead of 3-4"? Norlun troughs are notoriously difficult to pin down. One thing I have noticed is that they tend to rotate south, cyclonically, across successive runs. Ex: if at 84 hours there is a precipitating column amid inverted troughing up in Maine, the 72 hour run slips it south, 60 to Cape Ann...48 along LI, then a no show. Yet they do happen from time to time. What that means really is that whatever physical properties cause them to happen they are less discretely understood -- otherwise the models would process them with more accuracy. One of the best Norlun stories I ever heard was a virtual blind result of nearly 20" in Portland Maine. Imagine going to bed and waking up with your car tented, with no idea it was coming ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Just don't exactly lock those in either as being successful. Those deals are normally not settled until less then 36-48 hrs out. But, both models sort of have that look...that is, moist 700 profiles and light onshore flow above N-NE winds at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 WPC has 40-50% chances of >1" for all of SNE. 30-40% of 2", 20-30% of 4", 5-20% of 6", 1-10% of 8". Seems good to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Euro continues a weenie look in eastern mass over the same areas of eastern mass. Verbatim enhanced stuff along the coast probably resulting in a small jack of 2-3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 it fuking sucks Oops, I forgot about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 This is met 101 for those of you that just look at qpf fields. That setup and flow is nice for a solid light to possibly low end moderate snowfall for the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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