The 4 Seasons Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 The RPM goes bananas, a large stripe of 12-16 with a bulls eye of 16-20" of SE NY, too bad its a POS. I know someone who puts a lot of stock in that thing and don't know why. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 I personally wouldn't trust that new GFS even if it showed warning snows at 12z today. Cuz at 18z it will go right back to a FROPA, or a weak low OTS...the swings with that thing are amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 I'd say as a first call 1-2" south of BDL or east of 495(Given that I think the enhancement of precip over eastern areas is real, also sort of an IVT signal there), C-1" everyone else. NAM backed off big time at 12z, and really the only guidance supporting higher totals right now are the SREFS(Which will probably also cut back considering the NAM cut back). EURO was close to making it something bigger, but verbatim would verify those numbers nicely. Should make the ground white for most, but I'm not confident in much more than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 The RPM goes bananas, a large stripe of 12-16 with a bulls eye of 16-20" of SE NY, too bad its a POS. I know someone who puts a lot of stock in that thing and don't know why. It's a nuke, but the model is not meant for anything past 24 hrs. Put zero stock in it this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 The RPM goes bananas, a large stripe of 12-16 with a bulls eye of 16-20" of SE NY, too bad its a POS. I know someone who puts a lot of stock in that thing and don't know why. Lmao... 12 inches... Not this winter. Has that model showed anything like that this year for any other system? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 It's a nuke, but the model is not meant for anything past 24 hrs. Put zero stock in it this far out. Agreed. Lmao... 12 inches... Not this winter. Has that model showed anything like that this year for any other system? No, from what I've seen it has almost always been on the lighter and wetter side with almost everything. It was one of the few models that gave most CT almost nothing measure for snowfall on the Nov 26th storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Yesterday, We had Nam humpers, Today we have Nam jumpers, We are down to relying on the RGEM and the Euro, That's about it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 19, 2015 Author Share Posted January 19, 2015 I'd say a C-1 is a good call for now, maybe a bit of enhancement along the shores. Still a bit of Time for this to trend worse or a bit better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 The shortwave track definitely implies that snow could linger for quite some time...esp over eastern areas. Rgem at 48 looks semi promising but we really need to wait until tonight for it to be close enough to "see" the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Yesterday, We had Nam humpers, Today we have Nam jumpers, We are down to relying on the RGEM and the Euro, That's about it Go with the model that's hot. Good life lesson. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Go with the model that's hot. Good life lesson. Works for Brady................... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 The shortwave track definitely implies that snow could linger for quite some time...esp over eastern areas. Rgem at 48 looks semi promising but we really need to wait until tonight for it to be close enough to "see" the event. Yup, Still a bit outside the RGEM range, But even at 48 hrs, Its better then most Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 I didn't think the s/w on the NAM looked all that bad. Probabaly elongated too much if I had to nitpick it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Yeah the only mishap I see on the NAM is the elongation of the shortwave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 The only mishap I see on the NAM is that people are using it outside of 6 hours and spending precious time buying it. Truthfully the new gfs doesn't seem a lot better. Are we now relegated to cmc and euro with little weight to cmc? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 The only mishap I see on the NAM is that people are using it outside of 6 hours and spending precious time buying it. Truthfully the new gfs doesn't seem a lot better. Are we now relegated to cmc and euro with little weight to cmc?Hasnt it always been that way? Most folks don't use the GFS in their forecasts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 The only mishap I see on the NAM is that people are using it outside of 6 hours and spending precious time buying it. Truthfully the new gfs doesn't seem a lot better. Are we now relegated to cmc and euro with little weight to cmc? Sill Jerry. The 18z NAM will be the final solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Sill Jerry. The 18z NAM will be the final solution. Yesterday's 18z. Should I hoist the warnings? Kevin the old gfs had some use and you knew what y needed to adjust. The new gfs seems pretty worthless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 GFS strong again with the confluence, that's what's going to kill this event if it's right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 12z GFS is slightly NW of the 06z run but still is a no go for anyone outside Delaware/NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Yesterday's 18z. Should I hoist the warnings? Kevin the old gfs had some use and you knew what y needed to adjust. The new gfs seems pretty worthless. Yup. Mini-nuke incoming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leesun Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 I give more credence to the nam than the gfs right now. That's pretty bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Gfs has nothing for here!! Why do we even run this model the changes are huge all the time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Gfs has nothing for here!! Why do we even run this model the changes are huge all the time I don't think it ever had any snow for you regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 FOR NOW...WE BROUGHT LOW CHANCES TO THE CAPITAL REGION...SLIGHT CHANCES FURTHERNORTH. EVEN IF THIS SYSTEM WERE TO DIRECTLY HIT US...WE ARE LOOKING AT NO MORE THAN SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW. - NWS, Albany I thought this was kind of funny this morning, the way this was worded. We are looking at no more than several inches of snow? So 5, 6, 7 inches of snow is nothing now. Because to me if a couple is 2, a few is 3 or more, several is around 5+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 It had an inch but im talking everywhere in general theres so many changes I don't think it ever had any snow for you regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 There's a copy of different things to account for. The inverted trof, the actual clipper shield of precip, and the eroding snows as the energy transfers offshore to the clipper. This is why snowfall probably won't be relegated to just the south coast or south the the pike. We'll see how the euro acts at 12z. I'm still considering the GFS to be looney toons. There could be a scenario where BOS or Ray sees more snow than places pretty far south of both locations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 FOR NOW...WE BROUGHT LOW CHANCES TO THE CAPITAL REGION...SLIGHT CHANCES FURTHER NORTH. EVEN IF THIS SYSTEM WERE TO DIRECTLY HIT US...WE ARE LOOKING AT NO MORE THAN SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW. - NWS, Albany I thought this was kind of funny this morning, the way this was worded. We are looking at no more than several inches of snow? So 5, 6, 7 inches of snow is nothing now. Because to me if a couple is 2, a few is 3 or more, several is around 5+ Couple = 2" Few = 3" Several = 4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Couple = 2" Few = 3" Several = 4" no no no. a couple is 2-3 a few is 3-5 several is 5-7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Couple = 2" Few = 3" Several = 4" I thought three was company? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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