jamesnichols89 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 I think it snows while the temps are in the 32-34 range before it cools down. I also think the surface low comes within 50 miles of the benchmark and dumps more snow on Cape and Islands. This is our own mini snowstorm. Low is over the Outer Banks and down to 1016mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Normal Sea level pressure is 1013 mb if I'm not mistaken...so 1016mb isn't really a low at all...is it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Normal Sea level pressure is 1013 mb if I'm not mistaken...so 1016mb isn't really a low at all...is it? Well the SPC has two closed contours around the 1016mb, so yes its a low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Going to be close James. Should be fun to watch overnight. I just fear a ccb whiffing and subsidence on the other side. But looks like some hints this may get further nw up to about me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 12z EURO is out to hour 24, shows the clipper producing snow to BOS and interior New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Yeah indeed Clinch. Something to watch closely tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 i LOVE clippers, always have so i am hoping for some mood snows......dc had decent snow half hour ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Yeah DC is still in the great snows. I hope that hits us later tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Well the SPC has two closed contours around the 1016mb, so yes its a low. Gotcha!! :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Once that upper level disturbance over IN moves towards the ocean it will tilt the trough negative and we will get bombogenesis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Once that upper level disturbance over IN moves towards the ocean it will tilt the trough negative and we will get bombogenesis. Yep..and too far offshore to really impact anyone directly...ACK might get clipped with moderate snows for a brief time. Cape will probably just get scraped with light snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 What was Jimmy talking about that the Euro was snowy for interior SNE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 EURO shows good moisture over region at 700mb, indicative of lift and snow over region. I don't have the precip maps from the EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Area of strong thunderstorms is just ENE of Outer Banks, NC signifies where the surface low is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Coastal storm is already 2mb deeper than the NAM model at 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Low level circulation developing just west of the latest lighting strikes off the NC and VA coastlines. Low moving northeastward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 18z NAM has an inverted trof too. That idea is gaining ground. Where does it set up if it occurs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 18z NAM has an inverted trof too. That idea is gaining ground. Where does it set up if it occurs? Probably around Plymouth, Boston and then Essex, MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Lightning detected just recently within the last half hour over the Delmarva peninsula or just east of there over the ocean, comma head expanding and strengthening. Going to pack one mean punch, question is does it reach CHH? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 18z NAM sticks the inverted trough over central/eastern MA and RI...would probably give an inch or two in a few spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 18z NAM sticks the inverted trough over central/eastern MA and RI...would probably give an inch or two in a few spots. A few other short term regional models like E LI and SE CT. However, additional OES and echos are over much of the region elsewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Will, what do you think of the lightning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Models seem to like E CT and RI for inverted trof... We'll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Models seem to like E CT and RI for inverted trof... We'll see Thing is they never seem to setup where they are modeled and always seem to prefer open water Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 How does inv trough look Rgem 18z? Still all of Ct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 This system looks good to me. If I'm cold enough a couple of inches? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 EURO shows good moisture over region at 700mb, indicative of lift and snow over region. I don't have the precip maps from the EURO. You can have good moisture at 700mb be indicative of clouds, and not lift/snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Professional Lurker Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Pure comedic gold. Maybe the reverse psychology worked. At least now we all are going to get accumulating snows.. Well verbatim Euro is 1-3 Pike south..so regardless..it's going to lay down some snow now which is all anyone wants at this point of this kind of winter. There certainly is a solid trend to going snowier We'll Just lay down 2-5..keep it OTG and cold..and in this winter that should be considered a win 2-4 to the pike with 1-3 north. That's what this looks like That's a nice 1-3 deal for all of SNE . Not tossed . ...As it is its a long duration light snow event for Sne. Could be 3-4 in spots as models hone in tomorriw You gotta look past qpf. That setup will lead at least to a general 1-3 inch swath Right, it could completely miss too. No that doesn't appear to be an option This is met 101 for those of you that just look at qpf fields. That setup and flow is nice for a solid light to possibly low end moderate snowfall for the area You and me on this one dude. let the other whine and think they're getting a dusting. We are hand in hand for 2-4 pike south 1-3 north I don't see how it's possible anyone in SnE sees less than 1 inch. Again.. Just pretend the Gfs does not exist and make your forecasts I don't agree with that at all. There's a higher prob of seeing over an inch than under Even if you exclude the GFS there is a high probability that many don't see over an inch Emotions FTL. Hows your forecast of c-2 for everyone looking? So at the least there will be some light snows scattered around? I'm more invested in this. 1-2 pike south? Kevin swings like a monkey. Wish I had stuck with my initial call..instead of pulling the plug yesterday...Snow is coming Looks to me like most of CT sees 1-2.. And a spot 3 down twds Waterbury area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Its really enlightening to see all the forecasts. This is the Nichols -Rev storm Nichols actually could get it thou Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Professional Lurker Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Its really enlightening to see all the forecasts. This is the Nichols -Rev storm Nichols actually could get it thou Yeah. It's definitely not my intention to troll, just re-reading this thread was pretty funny. I know that the models were bouncing all around and this was not an easy forecast, but tossing around all kinds of amounts from c-5" over just 2 days was pretty hilarious. Hopefully the norlun tomorrow overproduces for you guys South of the pike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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