CoastalWx Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Euro is actually trying to amp up the front running s/w a bit now. That would mean a decent chance for SE areas to get clipped by the main offshore system. Beat me to it. The s/w's are a bit more consolidated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Beat me to it. The s/w's are a bit more consolidated. Man, the entire time on the this system, it looks like the precip "should" be better than what is shown based on the upper air look...you see that nice little vortmax swinging from S NJ up just E of LI along the negatively tilting s/w and you'd think there should be a nice little swath of snow to the north of that but we really don't see that on the output. Just very light stuff. It will be interesting to see if that amps up just a hair more, because that doesn't really look bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 This isn't over for southern or coastal areas. We've seen these bumps nw around 36-54hrs before. Don't turn your back on a falling tree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Man, the entire time on the this system, it looks like the precip "should" be better than what is shown based on the upper air look...you see that nice little vortmax swinging from S NJ up just E of LI along the negatively tilting s/w and you'd think there should be a nice little swath of snow to the north of that but we really don't see that on the output. Just very light stuff. It will be interesting to see if tha tamps up just a hair more, because that doesn't really look bad. I agree..even some diffluence in the height contours which usually is what you want over us. I bet it has to do with the lack of WAA. 850 temps actually get shunted SE. I wonder if it's a ribbon of mid level frontogenesis with light QPF that models usually have a tough time showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 So what are we talking Will, Scott? An additional .15" of QPF, or 1.5" of snow over Cape Cod, MA? I think 18z American model runs come north and west and then 00z runs tonight show additional NW movement or additional strengthening like the 12z EURO shows, this is a much better shortwave than last week's clipper had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 I feel like my chances of breaking an inch here are increasing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Does ACKWaves post here anymore? They might get 2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 So it sounds like Euro is back to giving C-1 or 2 in a spot? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 forky hasnt sent a picture of dim sunshine for this one so i am cautiously optimistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 So it sounds like Euro is back to giving C-1 or 2 in a spot? Maybe C-1 verbatim, best chances for >1" near the south coast...though the upper levels might imply a bit better overall picture. The problem is the little nuances in the vort energy changes from run to run so you can't be sure on any of these solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Nice storm for NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Maybe C-1 verbatim, best chances for >1" near the south coast...though the upper levels might imply a bit better overall picture. The problem is the little nuances in the vort energy changes from run to run so you can't be sure on any of these solutions. So at the least there will be some light snows scattered around? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 So at the least there will be some light snows scattered around? If the Euro verified...yes. Just hope an 18z NAM type solution doesn't verify if you want light snows around...keeps vort energy too far south and we never saturate the lower levels very well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nwbostonwx Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Cape gets clipped on 18z rgem, if only it was 50 miles west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Cape gets clipped on 18z rgem, if only it was 50 miles west. 18z gfs also clips the cape.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 18z GFS clips the Cape with at least some lift at 700mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 NAM is trying to give a James Nichols Special with the CCB getting quite close and clipping the Cape/Islands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 21z SREFs clip SE MA with 0.1" line on the mean. 0.25" out on CC. Pretty sizable shift N from the 15z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Go James go! One more tug on the line and she'll be in the boat... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Those of us who grew up in the NYC area 45+ years ago remember Gordon Barnes. He would describe this as a "dropping dry ice in a Martini storm". Then again, maybe Jerry Weathafella is the only other dude on this board who can relate to Gordon Barnes. It's really close from NYC to the Cape at this point. Big win for ACY to ACK? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nwbostonwx Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Hold the horses rgem is a no go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Old man winter lifts his skirt on the gfs tonight giving the cape a decent hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 3-4" on the NAM, 2-3" on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Nantucket, MA has a winter weather advisory issued for the area, while Cape Cod could get up to 3" locally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 GFS is stronger with the vort max, but is weaker with the surface low, I think its just the off run of the 6z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 It gon snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Yeah Ginxy, its gonna snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 RGEM is sure interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 RGEM is sure interesting For... the clipper? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Nice inv trough signature in CT on the 06z rgem. could be some sneaky snows there. see what 12z run brings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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