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Potential Clipper System 1/21


TauntonBlizzard2013

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Classic vort track for an over-performer compared to QPF Queens' expectations. That weak ML fronto almost and some pretty good instability under the 5H trough.

That's why I'm still interested in this one for a band of decent snow somewhere.

if you look at 7h you would think that's a 3-6 lock
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I think this ends up looking pretty similar to most of the other snow events this year.

Ground gets covered for many with a C-1, and someone does a bit better with 2" or so. Maybe a bit better with this "event", but more or less just penny type stuff.

if the Euro and NAM midlevels are right Hunchie yea rah rah sis boom ba.
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who cares about clippersecmwf_z500_mslp_eus_6.png

Ginxy clippers just aren't working out until perhaps the pattern flip but you and I have been very steadfast of a change after the 22nd ish....

The 24th was about when it appeared to me the circus would start so that map is no surprise. We will just have to watch the north south displacement as there will be haves and have nots

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Models suck big time, NAM is a no show even without an inverted trough in the region, GFS is closer to the coast.  EURO is far off and GGEM is far off.  Man when are we going to catch a break?  That EURO depiction 120 hours out supports a rain mix with snow for coastal SNE, when can we get storms without the rain?

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looks like you boys are blowing off your date for the prom queen, let's just hope she doesn't blow you off and leave you completely high and dry.

More like went to the prom alone, sat in the corner the entire night, and are now back home perusing the internet for the best material to fantasize with.
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The models cannot get out of their own way with this thing.

 

They haven't been that bad...the Euro went more to the front-running energy rather than that nice consolidated piece of trailing energy that we need to get a good band.

 

But we are talking fairly minor difference in the overall setup that have larger sensible wx differences....it's the kind of stuff we debate when the difference is a couple of inches vs flurries.

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They haven't been that bad...the Euro went more to the front-running energy rather than that nice consolidated piece of trailing energy that we need to get a good band.

But we are talking fairly minor difference in the overall setup that have larger sensible wx differences....it's the kind of stuff we debate when the difference is a couple of inches vs flurries.

There are a lot of s/w in the flow...so models aren't successfully keying in on threats +5 days out. Other than that, they have been fine.
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There are a lot of s/w in the flow...so models aren't successfully keying in on threats +5 days out. Other than that, they have been fine.

 

 

Well part of the problem is what I've said before...people are trying to get specific with threats at a time interval than is beyond guidance skill for that type of detail.

 

It's part of the reason we wanted to start the model thread vs starting threads for spefiic events 5+ days out. This particular thread was fine in that regard...but there's still some sort of sense of expectation on guidance that is not relaistic. I'm not sure why all of the sudden that expectation is there. I think it definitely has to do with the increased ease of model access.

 

Again some of that model "failure" gets way overblown when people are debating 0.4" vs 1.5" all winter as if that is some sort of meaningful model shift when it really isn't.

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