NinjaWarrior2 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 RGEM is a little north/drier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 I saw that too. The vort is close but still under us yet all the good precip is in central and east pa. Slp off the coast in the same general spot as other guidance. Rgem is similar to the nam but has the precip bullseye in central md. Hard to ignore the nam because it's been consistent the last few runs but we still have more reliable guidance on our side for now. The vort pass on the Hi-res NAM is definitely further south than the regular NAM-- compare hrs 33 and 36. Correspondingly, the 0.1" contour makes it further south into MD as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 The vort pass on the Hi-res NAM is definitely further south than the regular NAM-- compare hrs 33 and 36. Correspondingly, the 0.1" contour makes it further south into MD as well. We'll see where the gfs goes but it's a bit further south than 6z and keep the closed contour longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 We'll see where the gfs goes but it's a bit further south than 6z and keep the closed contour longer. Hr 30 looks pretty nice in Northern and Central MD Looks like 1-2 for MD, close to an inch for DCA/N VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Gfs has the 2 low structure again with the one west staying intact as the offshore low deepens. Not really a good thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Does January 28th, 2007 sound familiar to this? I know it snowed that day. GFS is dry to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Not a good run for the cities/burbs. .05 dca/.11 bwi/.13 iad. .30 along the catoctins by thurmont. Small strip of .20 from mt. airy to mt. parkton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Not a good run for the cities/burbs. .05 dca/.11 bwi/.13 iad. .30 along the catoctins by thurmont. Small strip of .20 from mt. airy to mt. parkton. Looking back over from yesterday 12Z's runs through today's so far-- the models are all kind of jumpy. I think the current NWS map looks reasonable.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Eh. Looks OK to me. It's a clipper. It's going to snow a little and maybe a little more than a little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Eh. Looks OK to me. It's a clipper. It's going to snow a little and maybe a little more than a little. I'm stoked. It's tomorrow and I can score at least a half inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 12Z tomorrow looks pretty disorganized on the euro per Plymouth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Euro has that nice burst DC and North and east....sfc probably 32-33 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Euro has that nice burst DC and North and east....sfc probably 32-33 My euro feed appears to be broken. Won't be able to add much. Just give me the shocked emoticon when the weekend panels come out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 12Z tomorrow looks pretty disorganized on the euro per Plymouth it's around 0.3" for me and you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Euro has that nice burst DC and North and east....sfc probably 32-33 must be after 12Z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Euro looks solid to me once again, a decent run with good surface temperatures. Peak climo time, so that helps with sun angle and those concerns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 My euro feed appears to be broken. Won't be able to add much. Just give me the shocked emoticon when the weekend panels come out. It's basically 0.2 - 0.3" for DC metro with sfc at 32-33.....starts at 9-10am and ends at 3pm....1-3"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 It's basically 0.2 - 0.3" for DC metro with sfc at 32-33.....starts at 9-10am and ends at 3pm....1-3"... How about further north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 GGEM has one precip max in PA and one over the Del Marva...kind of meh here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 It's basically 0.2 - 0.3" for DC metro with sfc at 32-33.....starts at 9-10am and ends at 3pm....1-3"... nice to see the precip follow the vort track better than the NAM and GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 How about further north you're in a good spot for this one (according to the euro) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 nice to see the precip follow the vort track better than the NAM and GFS this will be a tricky forecast in terms of result...but I don't think a hard one...just one with a lot of bust potential.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 The euro like zwyts states above comes with a lot of bust potential, and that is true. The precipitation depiction is a bit streaky, and bandy in an appearance. With that being said, the .4-.5 QPF depicted over the Chesapeake leaves some boom potential as well around mitch and company. Unfortunately, because of the two precip maxes, someone will likely be let down by this one as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 The euro like zwyts states above comes with a lot of bust potential, and that is true. The precipitation depiction is a bit streaky, and bandy in an appearance. With that being said, the .4-.5 QPF depicted over the Chesapeake leaves some boom potential as well around mitch and company. Unfortunately, because of the two precip maxes, someone will likely be let down by this one as well. 12z Euro is showing 0.4-0.5" of QPF over the Bay? Is that enhancement from the coastal development? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 The euro like zwyts states above comes with a lot of bust potential, and that is true. The precipitation depiction is a bit streaky, and bandy in an appearance. With that being said, the .4-.5 QPF depicted over the Chesapeake leaves some boom potential as well around mitch and company. Unfortunately, because of the two precip maxes, someone will likely be let down by this one as well. yeah..bust potential either way..someone could get 3-5" somewhere...probably would be NE MD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 12z Euro is showing 0.4-0.5" of QPF over the Bay? Is that enhancement from the coastal development? Eh upon second glance around .35-.4 but yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Kind of a displaced system with the QPF a bit further south than one may think regarding the s/w placement. It's probably more from WAA forcing, but I think would like to see another run showing a hit for DC because it's a bit tricky being on the S/SW side of the blossoming precip shield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Question, what is the Canadian HRDPS on WxBell? It shows a nice hit for the clipper, but I'm not sure what it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 The High Rex NAM gives a solid six hours of light to occasionally moderate snow mid-day tomorrow through a large portion of the NVA/Central Maryland region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Would like to see the high get over top of the clipper but it's probably wont so going to be the track that is the determinent of precip type. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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