WinterWxLuvr Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Nam looks like a big hit for Philly... Shew..........I was worried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 "The clipper passes by early Wednesday ushering some cooler air aloft, however a layer of warmer air should remain at the surface." Whoops... not sure MR (not zwyts) even read the post yesterday.. tho perhaps should have been fixed in editing. bouncy bounce. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 not sure MR (not zwyts) even read the post yesterday.. tho perhaps should have been fixed in editing. bouncy bounce. Just commenting on my terrible forecast from Sunday. My high off the SE coast went *poof* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Just commenting on my terrible forecast from Sunday. My high off the SE coast went *poof* yeah i know.. just reminded me newest forecast jumped 5 degrees+ for Wed and diminished the clipper from yesterday's thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Nam looks like a big hit for Philly...Big hit as in 1-2 inches? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 yeah i know.. just reminded me newest forecast jumped 5 degrees+ for Wed and diminished the clipper from yesterday's thoughts. Ha. I didn't even notice that. I was just reading yesterday's post and Wes's's's's's email Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Ha. I didn't even notice that. I was just reading yesterday's post and Wes's's's's's email NAM is sketch since it did well last time and we're not far out at this pt but hard not to favor a Euro/GFS blend for now. We (weather weenies) do certainly over-analyze these small events as a whole. on both events this year my thoughts have been hurt by thinking too much it seemed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Big hit as in 1-2 inches? Maybe 4 for some burbs, actually As Ian says, it's a decoy model... also known as a piece of quack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 I'll only trust the NAM once inside 24-32 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 I'm thinking 1.5 for BWI, 1.1 DCA, and mapgirl rolling in 2-2.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 I'll only trust the NAM once inside 24-32 hours. I thought we only trust the NAM 6 hours after the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 I thought we only trust the NAM 6 hours after the storm. We only like it when it gives us snow. NAM has been north on this one. I am putting my pennies on Euro/GFS as any weenie would. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Nam vort is pretty south for its precip depiction so there's that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Biggest difference between NAM and GFS (which is probably more apparent above the surface on maps that i'm probably too dumb to read) is the coastal feature...and seeing as NAM's not known for its ability to handle the subtleties of coastal redevelopment...maybe we wishcast for GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Nam vort is pretty south for its precip depiction so there's that. And it's already a lot better than its 0Z run from last night at the surface for everyone... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Nam vort is pretty south for its precip depiction so there's that. I saw that too. The vort is close but still under us yet all the good precip is in central and east pa. Slp off the coast in the same general spot as other guidance. Rgem is similar to the nam but has the precip bullseye in central md. Hard to ignore the nam because it's been consistent the last few runs but we still have more reliable guidance on our side for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 And it's already a lot better than its 0Z run from last night at the surface for everyone... Agreed. All guidance looks better at the surface now. Which is weird because we usually trend the wrong way when things are dicey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 i'm 90% in for flakes. i'm 75% in for grass stickage. i'm only 40% in for pavement stickage south of the rockville/columbia corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 south trend looks feasible from this perspective... http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/uppermissvly_loop.php http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/flash-wv.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Ian's talking dirty over text -- vort pass, heavier stuff should be further south, snow on top of snow on top of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 I can't really buy into anything the NAM/SREF has right now. When NAM scored the coup, it held strong and other models trended towards it. In this case, globals have been trending south, AWAY from the NAM instead of towards it. That, along with the tendency of the vorts to verify stronger and "suppressed" south this season, pushes me towards the GFS/Euro track with a fair amount of confidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Ian's talking dirty over text -- vort pass, heavier stuff should be further south, snow on top of snow on top of snowPeople may be sick of snow by my bday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 I can't really buy into anything the NAM/SREF has right now. When NAM scored the coup, it held strong and other models trended towards it. In this case, globals have been trending south, AWAY from the NAM instead of towards it. That, along with the tendency of the vorts to verify stronger and "suppressed" south this season, pushes me towards the GFS/Euro track with a fair amount of confidence. If you make a snow map, DC better not be in that sh***y gray. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutMD Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 What time do you think it would start around DC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 People may be sick of snow by my bday. Or cold rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 What time do you think it would start around DC? Seems like 3-5am or so. Should be another fun morning for school systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Or cold rain.I was sick of cold rain by thanksgiving Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted January 20, 2015 Author Share Posted January 20, 2015 Seems like 3-5am or so. Should be another fun morning for school systems. Local TV advertising a 9am - 3pm timeframe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 What time do you think it would start around DC? FWIW, here's RAP's radar simulation at 2am...not much going on yet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Seems like 3-5am or so. Should be another fun morning for school systems. If we get six hours of flakes then it shouldn't be hard. But if the trend south verifies it is going to be a tough call. My bar was set at sprinkles with hope of dusting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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