Bob Chill Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 It seems kind of random why sometimes your maps (wxbell?) are somewhat different than the NCEP ones. Look at the 0.25" line especially.... I think ncep still populates certain maps on the old 27km grid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 I think ncep still populates certain maps on the old 27km grid. Gotcha... and checking actual printout of precip at DCA and IAD, your map is the right one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 It's colder than it has been. Mid 30' dropping during the afternoon. If precip gets in early with temps below freezing we might be ok even during peak afternoon. Would need to have snow otg. If snow starts with temps in the mid 30s then it's obviously trouble. I have noticed that clippers are good for cool dynamic cooling especially if you can under the vort max. So we could theoretically start in the mid 30s and be below freezing quickly after the precip starts.... Its that quick drop in temps that causes so many damn accidents with clippers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Just curious as to why nobody mentioned the mega jump in total precip that the srefs took. Surface is cold too, most of the area aob freezing by Wed morning. I know they aren't trusted far out in time but you can't ignore it either...can you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 I like clippers because you never expect too much but they generally always perform if they happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Euro is weaker than last night overall. Starts later so either rain or non-accum snow until late afternoon. Some precip falls with temps below freezing. Maybe 1-1.5" for some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 It's OK. Kinda far north with the vort pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 I think the 25th-26th clipper looks more promising... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 It's OK. Kinda far north with the vort pass. Yea, just overall weaker and strung out with the vort and no help with the developing low offshore. Not a good run if we're looking for improvements. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Euro is weaker than last night overall. Starts later so either rain or non-accum snow until late afternoon. Some precip falls with temps below freezing. Maybe 1-1.5" for some. Pretty much the same as 00z north of Baltimore. I'm hoping temps cooperate for you guys down there (not that I'm in best spot lol). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 I like clippers because you never expect too much but they generally always perform if they happen. I believe that has only been true over the last 365 days... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 It's OK. Kinda far north with the vort pass. Exactly how the last one started Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 I am pulling for this one. Already set my bar but if I get a dusting I will be happy. Just looks too warm and too north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 I believe that has only been true over the last 365 days... Not really.. there are of course plenty that do little or nothing but those are often clear as such early and it's not like we're ever going nuts expecting a foot from a clipper at day 8 or something. I'd count any that drops .5"-1"+ as acceptable and there are plenty over the years like that.. often all snow etc. Plus every now and then you get one like Jan 6 which is a solid event around here even if lower end. Maybe it's just the energy expended watching to success ratio is better or something, partly because we don't chase phantom clippers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Exactly how the last one started Sorta.. that one had blips here and there but otherwise it was further off the radar until it trended into us the final few days. I think this one is more or less locked up in a vort track between about CVA and S PA since we've seen that for days and days on various models. The temperature differences are pretty substantial though and it's hard not to favor the northern envelope at this point.. but snow is snow. We need more on the tally at this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 We posted this to CWG. Heavily me re-iterating Wes and making up percentages. http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2015/01/19/clipper-threatens-snow-on-wednesday-track-and-temperatures-still-up-in-the-air/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Euro ensembles pretty supportive of a light event for the clipper. Temps are going to be the focus more than qpf on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 We posted this to CWG. Heavily me re-iterating Wes and making up percentages. http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2015/01/19/clipper-threatens-snow-on-wednesday-track-and-temperatures-still-up-in-the-air/ I thought you did a good job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ltrain Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 It was good Ian. I shared it so people can get an idea about it without listening to pro snow biases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 We posted this to CWG. Heavily me re-iterating Wes and making up percentages. http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2015/01/19/clipper-threatens-snow-on-wednesday-track-and-temperatures-still-up-in-the-air/ Very good write up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 The track looks good on the 18Z GFS. Surface temps not so much though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 DC has a tendency to have clippers in a series of 3 which tend to follow this-first to north, second hit, 3rd to south anchoring in cold air for next 5 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 The track looks good on the 18Z GFS. Precip barely gets south of the M/D line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Precip barely gets south of the M/D line. Vort basically goes overhead, as does the surface low (which is kind of a mess). We want both to go south of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Vort basically goes overhead, as does the surface low (which is kind of a mess). We want both to go south of us. Pretty good agreement today with globals that we're just going to miss on a better vort track or slp development. But we're only talking 75 miles or so. Within the realm of possibility but things haven't gone in our favor today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Pretty good agreement today with globals that we're just going to miss on a better vort track or slp development. But we're only talking 75 miles or so. Within the realm of possibility but things haven't gone in our favor today. Let's get a 30.40 over top of it to push it south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Let's get a 30.40 over top of it to push it south. Highs are wimpy these days. You need either perfect timing or the block of the century it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Yes it does seem to help to have a 50-50 low in place or a -NAO to stop those highs from running away as soon as the precip arrives Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Unless things change majorly this is seeming dead for anyone south of Baltimore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Unless things change majorly this is seeming dead for anyone south of Baltimore. I don't agree that a major change is needed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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