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1/21 Clipper Thread


84 Hour NAM

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It's colder than it has been. Mid 30' dropping during the afternoon. If precip gets in early with temps below freezing we might be ok even during peak afternoon. Would need to have snow otg. If snow starts with temps in the mid 30s then it's obviously trouble.

I have noticed that clippers are good  for cool dynamic cooling especially if you can under the vort max.  So we could theoretically start in the mid 30s and be below freezing quickly after the precip starts....

 

Its that quick drop in temps that causes so many damn accidents with clippers.  

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Euro is weaker than last night overall. Starts later so either rain or non-accum snow until late afternoon. Some precip falls with temps below freezing. Maybe 1-1.5" for some. 

Pretty much the same as 00z north of Baltimore. I'm hoping temps cooperate for you guys down there (not that I'm in best spot lol).

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I believe that has only been true over the last 365 days...

Not really.. there are of course plenty that do little or nothing but those are often clear as such early and it's not like we're ever going nuts expecting a foot from a clipper at day 8 or something. I'd count any that drops .5"-1"+ as acceptable and there are plenty over the years like that.. often all snow etc. Plus every now and then you get one like Jan 6 which is a solid event around here even if lower end. Maybe it's just the energy expended watching to success ratio is better or something, partly because we don't chase phantom clippers.

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Exactly how the last one started ;)

Sorta.. that one had blips here and there but otherwise it was further off the radar until it trended into us the final few days.  I think this one is more or less locked up in a vort track between about CVA and S PA since we've seen that for days and days on various models. The temperature differences are pretty substantial though and it's hard not to favor the northern envelope at this point.. but snow is snow. We need more on the tally at this time of year.

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Vort basically goes overhead, as does the surface low (which is kind of a mess).  We want both to go south of us. 

 

Pretty good agreement today with globals that we're just going to miss on a better vort track or slp development. But we're only talking 75 miles or so. Within the realm of possibility but things haven't gone in our favor today. 

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