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1/21 Clipper Thread


84 Hour NAM

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GFS looks pretty decent...is it cold enough tho? surface warm?

It's colder than it has been. Mid 30' dropping during the afternoon. If precip gets in early with temps below freezing we might be ok even during peak afternoon. Would need to have snow otg. If snow starts with temps in the mid 30s then it's obviously trouble.

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except mid 30s but the vort and jet streak track isn't bad, sort of like the early Jan clipper but without the cold air.

What's up with the dual low structure? Wouldnt the low to the west easy transfer to the developing system in the Atlantic? Why does the gfs keep them separate and distinct?

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Overnight Tues the GFS keeps most everyone above freezing. Mid 30's @ 1pm and dropping to freezing or below for most of MD by 7pm. Wouldn't take much to have a better surface. If we get below freezing tuesday night it would make a big difference. I hope the GFS warm boundary bias is real. 

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Overnight Tues the GFS keeps most everyone above freezing. Mid 30's @ 1pm and dropping to freezing or below for most of MD by 7pm. Wouldn't take much to have a better surface. If we get below freezing tuesday night it would make a big difference. I hope the GFS warm boundary bias is real. 

but if it has a warm bias, it is likelier to be wetter then, right?

just wondering

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Overnight Tues the GFS keeps most everyone above freezing. Mid 30's @ 1pm and dropping to freezing or below for most of MD by 7pm. Wouldn't take much to have a better surface. If we get below freezing tuesday night it would make a big difference. I hope the GFS warm boundary bias is real. 

Well the Euro was colder and it doesn't seem like it would take much.

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but if it has a warm bias, it is likelier to be wetter then, right?

just wondering

 

heh, I have no idea. I'm not sure what I think about the new gfs. Seems awful jumpy even in the short range. Medium range is even worse. Could be the higher resolution. Would make sense given errors over time. H5 is rated better than the old gfs but I can't say the same applies to lower levels. Time will tell. 

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Well the Euro was colder and it doesn't seem like it would take much.

 

Yep, euro was 28-32 for just about everyone @ 7am and 32-35 @ 1pm before dropping again. Probably the most important thing is to be below freezing at dawn with precip falling. You are in a better spot for temps. I don't know what to think about precip distribution. 

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From this morning's AFD-

 

STILL UNCERTAINTY OVER PRECIPITATION START TIMES AND TEMPERATURE
PROFILES. OVER BALTIMORE AND WASHINGTON DC METROS...THERE IS A
CHANCE PRECIPITATION WILL START AS SNOW DURING THE MORNING RUSH
AND THEN CHANGE TO RAIN AS SURFACE TEMPS MODERATE DURING THE
DAY
...BUT THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL THAT IT MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER
IN THE MORNING. BLENDED MOS GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S...WITH SOME
AREAS STAYING ABOVE FREEZING. WEDNESDAY HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE LOW
40S OVER MOST OF THE CWA...WITH UPPER 30S POSSIBLE NEAR THE MASON
DIXON LINE.

 

&&

 

What? Surface?

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From this morning's AFD-

 

STILL UNCERTAINTY OVER PRECIPITATION START TIMES AND TEMPERATURE

PROFILES. OVER BALTIMORE AND WASHINGTON DC METROS...THERE IS A

CHANCE PRECIPITATION WILL START AS SNOW DURING THE MORNING RUSH

AND THEN CHANGE TO RAIN AS SURFACE TEMPS MODERATE DURING THE

DAY...BUT THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL THAT IT MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER

IN THE MORNING. BLENDED MOS GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT AND

WEDNESDAY. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S...WITH SOME

AREAS STAYING ABOVE FREEZING. WEDNESDAY HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE LOW

40S OVER MOST OF THE CWA...WITH UPPER 30S POSSIBLE NEAR THE MASON

DIXON LINE.

 

&&

 

What? Surface?

 

Yeah, those two don't correlate at all.

 

I'm guessing he meant that the change to rain will occur while surface temps are rising as well.

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