Bob Chill Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Euro is a lot colder at the surface than other guidance but precip max is way north. PA does well and 1-2 along the md/pa border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 06z GFS at hrs 57 and 60.... hmmm... Soundings suggest snow at DCA... winners are extreme N VA, DC, and all of MD (not including SE MD)... h5 vort passes just south of us or right over us 06z 13KM GFS bullseyes DCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Damn this thread is dead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Damn this thread is dead. Which was surprising given the GFS. I guess when King NAM gives squat we all jump ship. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Which was surprising given the GFS. I guess when King NAM gives squat we all jump ship. THat's what I'm sayin'! I guess folks are disillusioned. Maybe the 12z GFS will either kill or seal the deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Damn this thread is dead. I'm still all in. Always in. Always all in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Damn this thread is dead. I think we are all waiting for the GFS and euro as none of us trust the NAM inside of 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 I'd rather have the GFS/EURO than the NAM/GEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Gfs says congrats Wes. Overall a pretty nice and organized precip shield around our general area. Good run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 GFS looks pretty decent...is it cold enough tho? surface warm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 GFS looks pretty decent...is it cold enough tho? surface warm? It's colder than it has been. Mid 30' dropping during the afternoon. If precip gets in early with temps below freezing we might be ok even during peak afternoon. Would need to have snow otg. If snow starts with temps in the mid 30s then it's obviously trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Gfs says congrats Wes. Overall a pretty nice and organized precip shield around our general area. Good run. except mid 30s but the vort and jet streak track isn't bad, sort of like the early Jan clipper but without the cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 except mid 30s but the vort and jet streak track isn't bad, sort of like the early Jan clipper but without the cold air. What's up with the dual low structure? Wouldnt the low to the west easy transfer to the developing system in the Atlantic? Why does the gfs keep them separate and distinct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 What's up with the dual low structure? Wouldnt the low to the west easy transfer to the developing system in the Atlantic? Why does the gfs keep them separate and distinct? Don't know, maybe someone else can figure it out. How much does the GFS give DCA and BWI? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_060_dom_precip_type.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=12¶m=dom_precip_type&fhr=060&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&ps=model&use_mins=no&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150119+12+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_060_dom_precip_type.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=12¶m=dom_precip_type&fhr=060&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&ps=model&use_mins=no&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150119+12+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 Why is it showing freezing rain? 850 and 925 below 0C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYY_2 Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Don't know, maybe someone else can figure it out. How much does the GFS give DCA and BWI? 12z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Not a bad look. One more small shift south and the gettin gets even better....assuming temps being ok though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Don't know, maybe someone else can figure it out. How much does the GFS give DCA and BWI? Looks like some sort of deform band in s md as the low offshore deepens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Looks like some sort of deform band in s md as the low offshore deepens gfs precip.JPG Shift that 50-75 miles west and we somewhat rejoice... but that looks like a potent deform band Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Overnight Tues the GFS keeps most everyone above freezing. Mid 30's @ 1pm and dropping to freezing or below for most of MD by 7pm. Wouldn't take much to have a better surface. If we get below freezing tuesday night it would make a big difference. I hope the GFS warm boundary bias is real. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Overnight Tues the GFS keeps most everyone above freezing. Mid 30's @ 1pm and dropping to freezing or below for most of MD by 7pm. Wouldn't take much to have a better surface. If we get below freezing tuesday night it would make a big difference. I hope the GFS warm boundary bias is real. but if it has a warm bias, it is likelier to be wetter then, right? just wondering Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Overnight Tues the GFS keeps most everyone above freezing. Mid 30's @ 1pm and dropping to freezing or below for most of MD by 7pm. Wouldn't take much to have a better surface. If we get below freezing tuesday night it would make a big difference. I hope the GFS warm boundary bias is real. Well the Euro was colder and it doesn't seem like it would take much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 but if it has a warm bias, it is likelier to be wetter then, right? just wondering heh, I have no idea. I'm not sure what I think about the new gfs. Seems awful jumpy even in the short range. Medium range is even worse. Could be the higher resolution. Would make sense given errors over time. H5 is rated better than the old gfs but I can't say the same applies to lower levels. Time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Well the Euro was colder and it doesn't seem like it would take much. Yep, euro was 28-32 for just about everyone @ 7am and 32-35 @ 1pm before dropping again. Probably the most important thing is to be below freezing at dawn with precip falling. You are in a better spot for temps. I don't know what to think about precip distribution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 12z GGEM is interesting... brings in the QPF Wed night... but a miss for most unless you are in N MD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 From this morning's AFD- STILL UNCERTAINTY OVER PRECIPITATION START TIMES AND TEMPERATUREPROFILES. OVER BALTIMORE AND WASHINGTON DC METROS...THERE IS ACHANCE PRECIPITATION WILL START AS SNOW DURING THE MORNING RUSHAND THEN CHANGE TO RAIN AS SURFACE TEMPS MODERATE DURING THEDAY...BUT THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL THAT IT MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL LATERIN THE MORNING. BLENDED MOS GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT ANDWEDNESDAY. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S...WITH SOMEAREAS STAYING ABOVE FREEZING. WEDNESDAY HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE LOW40S OVER MOST OF THE CWA...WITH UPPER 30S POSSIBLE NEAR THE MASONDIXON LINE. && What? Surface? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 From this morning's AFD- STILL UNCERTAINTY OVER PRECIPITATION START TIMES AND TEMPERATURE PROFILES. OVER BALTIMORE AND WASHINGTON DC METROS...THERE IS A CHANCE PRECIPITATION WILL START AS SNOW DURING THE MORNING RUSH AND THEN CHANGE TO RAIN AS SURFACE TEMPS MODERATE DURING THE DAY...BUT THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL THAT IT MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER IN THE MORNING. BLENDED MOS GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S...WITH SOME AREAS STAYING ABOVE FREEZING. WEDNESDAY HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE LOW 40S OVER MOST OF THE CWA...WITH UPPER 30S POSSIBLE NEAR THE MASON DIXON LINE. && What? Surface? Yeah, those two don't correlate at all. I'm guessing he meant that the change to rain will occur while surface temps are rising as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Looks like some sort of deform band in s md as the low offshore deepens gfs precip.JPG It seems kind of random why sometimes your maps (wxbell?) are somewhat different than the NCEP ones. Look at the 0.25" line especially.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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