mitchnick Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Gotta have precip first Yoda you can make the same arguments why cold is more important fact is, one w/o the other means no snow tonight's NAM looks flatter thru 45 hrs vs. 18z at 51 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Gotta have precip first Yoda Doesn't even matter, its rain if it precipitates, or its nothing at all... its pretty easy to toss this threat when just about every run suggests rain ETA: See Bob's post above Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Lotta time left boys....buck up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Hard to call a storm terrible when it drops a 1-2 feet across the area... Yes, but do you know how much fell in Warrior Bigfoot's backyard? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 NAM looks north based on sim/radar, with best 40N Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robPAwx Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Any maps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Any maps? http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-parameter.php?group=Model%20Guidance&model=nam&area=namer&cycle=20150119%2000%20UTC¶m=sim_radar&fourpan=no&imageSize=L&ps=model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 The heavy snow at 3am was great in the Feb storm. And I'm one that totally discounts Feb 2006 for the following day warmth.Yeah I was up for it. It definitely dumped for a while and the sleet stalled south of me for a bit.. But it was melty mashed potatoes by sunrise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Nam is beautiful... For northern new jersey... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 NAM looks north based on sim/radar, with best 40N For now. It looks close to a good storm for us. We've got time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Good thing NAM isn't a real model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 For now. It looks close to a good storm for us. We've got time. You expecting snow during the middle of the day when the clipper comes through? Even if surface was supportive of snow, 850-950 say no dice for snow even out in MRB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 For now. It looks close to a good storm for us. We've got time. everything will be on the table until 0Z Wednesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 You expecting snow during the middle of the day when the clipper comes through? Even if surface was supportive of snow, 850-950 say no dice for snow even out in MRB bottom line, it must come south like the Euro or it's pleasant rain showers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 bottom line, it must come south like the Euro or it's pleasant rain showers Yup... and we don't usually have that kind of luck with clippers... but we shall see what the GFS shows shortly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheesyPoofs Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Yup... and we don't usually have that kind of luck with clippers... but we shall see what the GFS shows shortly We had some pretty good luck with one only two weeks ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 You expecting snow during the middle of the day when the clipper comes through? Even if surface was supportive of snow, 850-950 say no dice for snow even out in MRB Man, you wading through deep pessimistic waters at every turn tonight. Like winterwx says, we got time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Down with yoda Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 GFS looking to disappoint w/nothing special Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Gfs brought nothing new. No surface reflection to the south and weak overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Gfs brought nothing new. No surface reflection to the south and weak overall. I sometimes think that if all of us directed our energies to something useful instead of looking at models, we would have cured cancer by now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Down with yoda Sorry for being a debbie downer for this clipper... I just don't see it at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kay Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Clippers are like buses, if you miss one... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 I sometimes think that if all of us directed our energies to something useful instead of looking at models, we would have cured cancer by now Nah, being an armchair weenie requires no formal education. And requires less sanity than the gen pop. Luckily we have another 24 hours before deciding if we're in or out. Part of the problen on the gfs depiction is the vort isn't clean and discrete as it drops down. Trailing energy and elongated look is bad but certainly not set in stone. It still goes under us but pretty flat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Clippers are like buses, f you miss one... For us, clippers are like unicorns in pots of gold at the end of rainbows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kay Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 For us, clippers are like unicorns in pots of gold at the end of rainbows Don't rain on my clipper parade, man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Nah, being an armchair weenie requires no formal education. And requires less sanity than the gen pop. Luckily we have another 24 hours before deciding if we're in or out. Part of the problen on the gfs depiction is the vort isn't clean and discrete as it drops down. Trailing energy and elongated look is bad but certainly not set in stone. It still goes under us but pretty flat. I noticed the RGEM was stretching it out too as depicted at the end of its 48 hr. run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Don't rain on my clipper parade, man. he won't have to....they'll do it themselves! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 GEM says what clipper? last night it had almost .75" qpf, and now nothing tonight's GFS run ends at 7PM February 3 time for a true reality check folks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 We suck at clippers. Recency bias. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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