feloniousq Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Thanks for the explanation. That makes sense. But only one solution can be "right", and perhaps not even one of the ten hypothetical model runs you refer to.... I think your map in and of itself was fine. But when that confidence key is there and has 40% or less, I just take it to mean you may be struggling to interpret the available data or not willing to put a stake in the ground. As you know, there are tons of weather forecasting products out there...govt, private sector, TV, other media, amateurs, on and on....I don't see how you differentiate yourself when you say here's my map but I'm 40% or less confident in the parameters. But you are right in that I don't understand weather forecasting confidence intervals or utilization. I admit that freely. It must suck to be a pro in the weather business when you don't really know what will happen 18-24 hours out. You know what solution is "right" here? Taking this to banter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 You know what solution is "right" here? Taking this to banter. Or just let this brief conversation play out because some of us might find it interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
feloniousq Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Or just let this brief conversation play out because some of us might find it interesting. Can you let this not very brief at all conversation "play out" somewhere other than an event thread the night before said event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Can you let this not very brief at all conversation "play out" somewhere other than an event thread the night before said event? It was like 5 posts lol. Some of you are nutty. I think it's perfectly ok to have mini banter in a storm thread. It wasn't distracting to me at all. It's not as if they were talking about the super bowl. Anyway, I have no more comments to make on that. Carry on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 It's a clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 a little melodramatic at 21 hrs. on this BWI 0Z NAM printout, don't you think? http://68.226.77.253/text/NAMSFC/NAM_Kbwi.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 37/28. Surprised at how quickly temps have dropped. 29/30 showing up at some spots inside the Beltway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Thanks for the explanation. That makes sense. But only one solution can be "right", and perhaps not even one of the ten hypothetical model runs you refer to.... I literally covered every possible scenario (less than 1", 1-2", greater than 2"), so... yeah. I think your map in and of itself was fine. But when that confidence key is there and has 40% or less, I just take it to mean you may be struggling to interpret the available data or not willing to put a stake in the ground. Forecast confidence is a bit cover-your-ass, but it's a matter of offering your audience proper perspective. No two storms are the same, and some storms are more "locked in" in terms of snow totals than others. Forecast confidence is a way of saying, "this is what I think will happen, and the confidence is the potential for it to be wrong." As you know, there are tons of weather forecasting products out there...govt, private sector, TV, other media, amateurs, on and on....I don't see how you differentiate yourself when you say here's my map but I'm 40% or less confident in the parameters. I try to differentiate myself by being consistently better than others in overall forecast verification. Forecast confidence does not equate into the verification process... ultimately it's what you put on the map, and what the end result was. Also, I make and disseminate my snow forecast maps for free independent of my workplace, so I'm not really competing against anyone for an audience. But you are right in that I don't understand weather forecasting confidence intervals or utilization. I admit that freely. It must suck to be a pro in the weather business when you don't really know what will happen 18-24 hours out. It does suck. Most clients want to know exacts and want 100% confidence, but they also realize that it can never really be that way realistically. Energy/agriculture clients especially like forecast confidence, because giving them a forecast along with the forecast confidence will help them determine how much risk they want to take with their money and the like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 RGEM aligns pretty well with the NAM. 1-3 inches with maybe some isolated 4" amounts central DE to extreme SNJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 a little melodramatic at 21 hrs. on this BWI 0Z NAM printout, don't you think? http://68.226.77.253/text/NAMSFC/NAM_Kbwi.txt TSSN nice Mitch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 37/28. Surprised at how quickly temps have dropped. 29/30 showing up at some spots inside the Beltway. I'm just outside the beltway and 29/26 when I last checked. Highs reached 48. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 I betcha the GFS came in better, hence that map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 I betcha the GFS came in better, hence that map Hr 18 looks pretty nice Looks like 1-2 for DCA/IAD/BWI.. jackpot is in NW VA/W MD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 I betcha the GFS came in better, hence that map Maybe the NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Maybe the NAM? they wouldn't dare use the NAM, please tell me no.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 they wouldn't dare use the NAM, please tell me no.... RGEM + NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 StormTotalSnowRange new.png Nice... Good luck down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherCCB Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 29/24 Clear sky's have let temps drop fast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 I betcha the GFS came in better, hence that mapIf i recall correctly DTK or some other NWS meteorologist said they don't see it before us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 If i recall correctly DTK said they don't see it before us. DTK= Don't Think Knows? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 So still a 3-4 hr difference between the NAM and GFS on onset time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Gfs is extremely dry for dca Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Gfs is extremely dry for dca It's not so bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Gfs is extremely dry for dca Its 0.1-0.15 QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 GFS gives us 1-2", more once you get up into Maryland. RGEM gives DC the heaviest snow band, around 2-3" DC/IAD/points east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Would not be surprised to see 5-6" somewhere in SNJ probably toward the coast. Impressive frontogenesis on the NW side of the coastal low per NAM. Could be some heavy banding there tomorrow evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Would not be surprised to see 5-6" somewhere in SNJ probably toward the coast. Impressive frontogenesis on the NW side of the coastal low per NAM. Could be some heavy banding there tomorrow evening. I posted earlier the NAM give ACY .65" qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 I posted earlier the NAM give ACY .65" qpf Yeah that looks like the jackpot area. RGEM has it there too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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