gymengineer Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 This is a tough one. Really going to be tough to determine where good bands set up if they do at all. Could just be some light stuff for a 6-8 period. I agree.. you can see the hints at banding on all the models. If those materialize, the snow may come down hard enough in a band to slush over roads even at like 1 pm. (The Hi-res NAM is a good deal colder than the GFS at the surface, especially in the northern suburbs.) But outside of the bands, I doubt there will be much impact during the daytime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 I agree.. you can see the hints at banding on all the models. If those materialize, the snow may come down hard enough in a band to slush over roads even at like 1 pm. (The Hi-res NAM is a good deal colder than the GFS at the surface, especially in the northern suburbs.) But outside of the bands, I doubt there will be much impact during the daytime. I thinnk you've hit on the big forecast dilemma, the location of the band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
infekshus Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 my point is that they're easy to get wrong and aren't the storms we rely on to get to our season average in a normal season. i do agree, though, that a little snow is better than nothing...but i also agree with ji's comment that clippers with marginal temps are tough to get excited about it. IMO they're pretty easy to get right...with a good vort pass and supportive temps, forecast 0.5-3" and you'll be right 90+X/100 for typical clippers. perhaps it's harder to forecast for right on the lee side of the mts as redevelopment is many times not speedy enough to catch them w/ decent LE, but for anywhere east of say Rt 29 in VA it's hard to get more straightforward. shot in the dark: DCA: 0.0-1", boom 1.3 IAD: 1-2", boom 2.8 BWI: 1-3", boom 3.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Marginal temperatures at the surface and at 925-900 mb, mostly light rates during the day... yeah, I'm not expecting too much locally. Probably should have brought the 1-2" contour even further north, but whatever. We'll see how it goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Marginal temperatures at the surface and at 925-900 mb, mostly light rates during the day... yeah, I'm not expecting too much locally. Probably should have brought the 1-2" contour even further north, but whatever. We'll see how it goes. png[/url] A call that makes sense. I like this. It's simply not that cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 LOL DCA doesn't even get an inch on that map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Clippers at 34 degrees often work out here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Seems like 11 am start, slowwwww down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 FWIW, WPC has 60% odds of 1" and 40% odds of 2" for DC, add about 5% for Baltimore, add 10% for Mt Parkton/Westminster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Looking at the NCEP maps, 21z SREFs 0.25" mean includes C MD (including Baltimore) and Eastern Shore. Usual areas near the M/D line in northern MD look to do well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jnis Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Based on current radar, it appears to my weenie eyes that a the 18z GFS seems to be handling the energy over MO/AR better than the 18z NAM... so far.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Marginal temperatures at the surface and at 925-900 mb, mostly light rates during the day... yeah, I'm not expecting too much locally. Probably should have brought the 1-2" contour even further north, but whatever. We'll see how it goes. What's the point of putting out a map with a 40% (or is the shading meant to be less) confidence level? Why not put out your highest confidence forecast? It's within 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 What's the point of putting out a map with a 40% (or is the shading meant to be less) confidence level? Why not put out your highest confidence forecast? It's within 24 hours. You don't understand forecast confidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Looking at the NCEP maps, 21z SREFs 0.25" mean includes C MD (including Baltimore) and Eastern Shore. Usual areas near the M/D line in northern MD look to do well. Snow plumes steadily going up for APG (2.5" now). But the SREF sucks ass so impossible to trust it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 The short term/rapid update guidance suggests underperformance. It seems precipitation may slow down and hold off until noon to perhaps 1 pm and then yield a pulse of perhaps 3 hours snow tapering to drizzle/flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 You don't understand forecast confidence. You have explained your reasoning and, I think, given the nature of clippers, it is very prudent. We are only talking about a few inches. My expectations are low. Nice to see flakes for a few hours., we can agree on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Question, what is the Canadian HRDPS on WxBell? It shows a nice hit for the clipper, but I'm not sure what it is. I believe it's an experimental high-resolution regional nest within the RGEM. https://weather.gc.ca/grib/grib2_HRDPS_HR_e.html I'm not sure how good it is for our area. The 12z run is weenie-bait if you're under one of the big bands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 You have explained your reasoning and, I think, given the nature of clippers, it is very prudent. We are only talking about a few inches. My expectations are low. Nice to see flakes for a few hours., we can agree on that. We had flakes here this afternoon. It wasn't that thrilling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 I believe it's an experimental high-resolution regional nest within the RGEM. https://weather.gc.ca/grib/grib2_HRDPS_HR_e.html I'm not sure how good it is for our area. The 12z run is weenie-bait if you're under one of the big bands. I haven't looked at it enough to know how good it performs for the area but you are right regarding what the HRDPS is - its basically an experimental high-res regional model within RGEM. I think it even ingests the same data that the RGEM does, IIRC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 I believe it's an experimental high-resolution regional nest within the RGEM. https://weather.gc.ca/grib/grib2_HRDPS_HR_e.html I'm not sure how good it is for our area. The 12z run is weenie-bait if you're under one of the big bands. lolz.... puts me in the bullseye Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Looks like the snow doesn't get into the N VA/DC/MD area until noon if we are to use the composite reflectivity radar... decent band in MD/DC/N VA from hrs 17-20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Looks like the snow doesn't get into the N VA/DC/MD area until noon if we are to use the composite reflectivity radar... decent band in MD/DC/N VA at hr 17 and 18 Want to edit this for a third time? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Wetter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Wetter About 0.15" for DC, 0.3" for Balt, 0.35" for NE MD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Nice stripe... I hope it arrives earlier than noon. Congrats mapgirl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Real nice run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 I believe it's an experimental high-resolution regional nest within the RGEM. https://weather.gc.ca/grib/grib2_HRDPS_HR_e.html I'm not sure how good it is for our area. The 12z run is weenie-bait if you're under one of the big bands. meh, those things are for the birds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Mapgirl just got NAM'ed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Mapgirl just got NAM'ed. Woo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 I better see deck pics from Parkton tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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