BTRWx Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Just figured I'd share the latest from LWX very interesting! Trend is our friend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 I've never argued clippers are the best snows ever or something but they are a regular part of our cilmo. Not sure why that's so hard for some people to wrap their minds around. 1" is better than 0" if you like snow.. and they do perform better at times. If a clipper is going to totally suck we usually know early and don't even pay much attention. Given we've had one good one the odds are probably higher than normal of another this winter. Yeah, temps aren't as good, and it might fail, but classic example of this forum focusing on fairies more than real stuff. Not at all in reference to being the best snows. I was trying to imply the differences in track tendencies from season to season. One year they are way north in New England, then another down into the Carolinas, but this year, DMV ground zero Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 RGEM is decent with precip over 2-12 hour maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 GFS is decent for the region as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 GFS is decent for the region as well It's not terrific. Precip slowing down could be an issue with the sfc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 GFS is decent for the region as well It's an odd system that would support snow in the beltway and rain in central WV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 RGEM is back to 0.25" showing up near DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 GFS is not the best depiction for the 95 corridor. The 2 maxes scenario is what dials this thing back come game time. If we can get an organized precip shield in here before 11AM even, things would be okay. However, judging by models and radar and the current short term models, thats unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 GFS is not the best depiction for the 95 corridor. The 2 maxes scenario is what dials this thing back come game time. If we can get an organized precip shield in here before 11AM even, things would be okay. However, judging by models and radar and the current short term models, thats unlikely. terrible at BWI only .09" with 1PM temps 2.5c I'll chalk this up to a blip of the GFS and not the start of another last minute collapse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Every thread needs at least one max potential map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 RGEM is back to 0.25" showing up near DC. Looks like consensus is forming on the 2 separate qpf maxes with you and me in between for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Odds there's some sort of school related meltdown tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Odds there's some sort of school related meltdown tomorrow?99% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Looks like consensus is forming on the 2 separate qpf maxes with you and me in between for now. On the NAM we're on the edge of one of the maxes... what's more interesting to me about the RGEM and NAM timing is that the afternoon rush hour looks more impacted than the morning one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 I'm not sure why the wwa starts at 6am for central md. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 I'm not sure why the wwa starts at 6am for central md.So you can get an off day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RickinBaltimore Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Every thread needs at least one max potential map That just jumped up from earlier, was only just about 3 in the Baltimore area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 So you can get an off day. Lol I hope not. An early release is enough. But am I crazy or doesn't this look like a 10 - 11'ish start? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 he said: FROM MY EXPERIENCE HERE (AND THIS GOES BACK TO THE 80S AS A KID), CLIPPERS HAVE A TENDENCY TO GET MANGLED AS THEY CROSS THE MOUNTAINS. THEY ARE THE SOURCE OF MANY BUSTS. THE LAST CLIPPER HAD REAL COLD TEMPS. WITHOUT THOSE TEMPS, THAT CLIPPER IS A NON-ACCUMULATING MESS (OR ACTUALLY IT MAY HAVE GONE NORTH OF US INSTEAD). lol yea i'm not sure what i missed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Odds there's some sort of school related meltdown tomorrow? 100% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 huh? my point is that they're easy to get wrong and aren't the storms we rely on to get to our season average in a normal season. i do agree, though, that a little snow is better than nothing...but i also agree with ji's comment that clippers with marginal temps are tough to get excited about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mosi76 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Odds there's some sort of school related meltdown tomorrow? They are probably hosed no matter which way they end up going. The start time hurts everybody because if it over-performs mid morning there will probably be early release and we all know how buses do in the snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 They are probably hosed no matter which way they end up going. The start time hurts everybody because if it over-performs mid morning there will probably be early release and we all know how buses do in the snow Except that it's a day event with temperatures aoa freezing. I don't disagree that everyone will be a critique but i doubt the roads get snow covered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrs.J Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 They are probably hosed no matter which way they end up going. The start time hurts everybody because if it over-performs mid morning there will probably be early release and we all know how buses do in the snow Was talking to the front office at my girls school. They would prefer a earlier start to this as a early dismissal is hectic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Except that it's a day event with temperatures aoa freezing. I don't disagree that everyone will be a critique but i doubt the roads get snow covered. Temps could easily dip to 29-30F in the heavier bands, so I think the roads could be a problem. The dilemma is that the heaviest precip won't come until late morning/early afternoon, so the question is cancel school before precip arrives, or let it play out and allow for early dismissal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ltrain Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 I remember when I was in high school in the late 90's, it was March and we got out early for a threat of rain changing to snow but it just rained. They might just cancel all together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Lol I hope not. An early release is enough. But am I crazy or doesn't this look like a 10 - 11'ish start? I am out of town but with this kind of forecast it is generally a 2 hour late start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ltrain Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 I am out of town but with this kind of forecast it is generally a 2 hour late start. So they go in late but let out at normal time when it will be snowing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Temps could easily dip to 29-30F in the heavier bands, so I think the roads could be a problem. The dilemma is that the heaviest precip won't come until late morning/early afternoon, so the question is cancel school before precip arrives, or let it play out and allow for early dismissal? This is a tough one. Really going to be tough to determine where good bands set up if they do at all. Could just be some light stuff for a 6-8 period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Temps could easily dip to 29-30F in the heavier bands, so I think the roads could be a problem. The dilemma is that the heaviest precip won't come until late morning/early afternoon, so the question is cancel school before precip arrives, or let it play out and allow for early dismissal? Treated roads probably shouldnt be an issue, but yeah untreated stuff will probably be slick, but not sure about complete snow covered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.