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Clipper snow disco and OBS Wednesday 1/21/2015


famartin

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Just as expected. I never bought those widespread accumulation amounts to the north and west of south Jersey; unmerited. Anyone following this system from an objective standpoint who looked at the high-res short-term models should have seen this coming. The transfer to the coast was going to result in tight banding and subsidence to the north and west; congrats south Jersey on a nice little event. The rest of us can hopefully look forward to a great storm on Saturday, the 0z suite tonight should be all telling.

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Yep, somewhere around 2 inches for this one. Saturday should hopefully get everybody, though seems like us Jersey peeps won't get that much with the mixing.

Too early to tell. If this takes a more easterly track you could get clobbered by the CCB while north and west see just light snow. A lot of facts to iron out.

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Cape May, 7pm. Snow ended about 6:30pm; a few stars peeking through. Final total 2.0". Temp. was 37° when the snow started, 1:30-2pm, then dropped to 32° by 2:15pm and stayed at 31°-32°. I did not see or hear any rain or sleet, just 100% snow. Wet snow but all snow. Wonderful!

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I may get hit with this last band but can't see it adding anymore than a dusting, which would be more than I have now. 0.0 total with a hour of flurries. .5" of rock salt on the roads though... I feel for Mt. Holly, this was another tough forecast.

It was not really a tough forecast. For the last 36 hours the mesoscale models clearly showed that south jersey would see great banding while dry air would prevail north and west. Anyway as for obs, I'm working my way towards a dusting here in Hamilton at 28.8 degrees.

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It was not really a tough forecast. For the last 36 hours the mesoscale models clearly showed that south jersey would see great banding while dry air would prevail north and west. Anyway as for obs, I'm working my way towards a dusting here in Hamilton at 28.8 degrees.

You're starting to annoy me...

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They've dropped the ball on this event since the beginning. Yesterday they were predicting 4" for far northern jersey, I've been taking their forecasts with a grain of salt for this event. It looks like SNJ could easily see 2-4"+, with there being a super tight gradient for areas north and west. I think I'll be lucky to hit 1" up here at TTN.

 

 

How can they have dropped the ball almost 24 hours before the event even starts? What makes you so sure you know what is going to happen? Let's see if your 2-4" in SNJ verifies then see who dropped the ball.

 

 

LOL

 

 

+1

 

 

You're starting to annoy me...

I thought this was a board for sharing opinions on weather? For the most part my forecast was pretty accurate. It was a clipper with a transfer to the coast, it's not like this outcome wasn't modeled. Obs: 28.6 degrees with light snow.

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I thought this was a board for sharing opinions on weather? For the most part my forecast was pretty accurate. It was a clipper with a transfer to the coast, it's not like this outcome wasn't modeled. Obs: 28.6 degrees with light snow.

what it's not is a board for gloating.   and there were certainly indicators up until the very end that the event could be a little more robust than it turned out.   so while you were right, it certainly wasn't ridiculous for forecasters to have gone slightly higher.

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OBS still SN- & fog

28.9F

Winds E light

 

Enough out there now to complete coat the grass, sidewalks, and untreated side streets.  Looks like the back edge is moving through pretty quickly and will be gone soon.

 

Edit to add that the big 'ole High up in Quebec was doing some serious drying of the air. It took a while for the air to moisten up!

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I thought this was a board for sharing opinions on weather? For the most part my forecast was pretty accurate. It was a clipper with a transfer to the coast, it's not like this outcome wasn't modeled. Obs: 28.6 degrees with light snow.

 

It is about sharing opinions about the weather.  You, on the other hand, are sharing opinions about a forecast and adding disparaging language such as "they dropped the ball".  If you disagree with a forecast, fine.  But try to be a little nicer about it.  There's a reason the Mt. Holly folks don't come here much anymore.

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It is about sharing opinions about the weather.  You, on the other hand, are sharing opinions about a forecast and adding disparaging language such as "they dropped the ball".  If you disagree with a forecast, fine.  But try to be a little nicer about it.  There's a reason the Mt. Holly folks don't come here much anymore.

Well said Ray.

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It was not really a tough forecast. For the last 36 hours the mesoscale models clearly showed that south jersey would see great banding while dry air would prevail north and west. Anyway as for obs, I'm working my way towards a dusting here in Hamilton at 28.8 degrees.

The mesoscale models have been inconsistent at best this winter. I would not of based a forecast on them when the GFS and EURO showed 1-3" and the NAM until 12z run showed more like 2 to 3"+. It's easy to say you were right after the storm was over but the model output up until this morning was consistent with what Mt. Holly put out. They would of been blasted had they went conservative based off of just the mesoscales after this weekend...

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