hazwoper Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 RUH ROH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
delijoe Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/2015012021/SREF_SNOWFALL_MEAN12HR_f033.gif 4" for PHL and central NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/2015012021/SREF_SNOWFALL_MEAN12HR_f033.gif 4" for PHL and central NJ That shows 4-5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 nam 0z loves south jersey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Any links? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Idk it might be to warm in SNJ, looks like precip arrives around mid-afternoon or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Nam loves the Philly area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Plowsman Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 As well they should! Wasnt southern Mon CTY n northern ocean the sweet spots last year! Yeeeeeah, mun! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
delijoe Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Nam loves the Philly area. NAM is at least 3-4" for PHL and central NJ south of TTN... If this verifies PNE looks like the snow JP. Coastal NJ will have mixing issues as per NAM. Now let's hope the GFS starts to trend towards the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Idk it might be to warm in SNJ, looks like precip arrives around mid-afternoon or so. The more that falls near or after sunset the better I would think, with the temperatures...it might start as rain but should change to snow fairly quickly if it does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Just an observation but there are clear skies here and the ground is getting wet with fog developing zero wind with a temp of 30 a few things: 1. Could be icy spots 2. Plenty of low level moisture for an incoming storm for higher precipitation amounts as more cold air works in tomorrow. I am truly thinking that there is some kind of convergence right along the Mason Dixon line 20-30 miles north and south of it tomorrow into Central New Jersey ..... kind of like a squeeze play with cold air pressing in from the NNW and milder air pressing in from the SSW or south. It has a early February flavor out there tonight!!! Media Delaware County Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
delijoe Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 We should start seeing WWAs popping up soon I would think My. holly would put one up maybe next update... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jb1979 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Just an observation but there are clear skies here and the ground is getting wet with fog developing zero wind with a temp of 30 a few things: 1. Could be icy spots 2. Plenty of low level moisture for an incoming storm for higher precipitation amounts as more cold air works in tomorrow. I am truly thinking that there is some kind of convergence right along the Mason Dixon line 20-30 miles north and south of it tomorrow into Central New Jersey ..... kind of like a squeeze play with cold air pressing in from the NNW and milder air pressing in from the SSW or south. It has a early February flavor out there tonight!!! Media Delaware County Hey Kevin. It's Jbat from the old LWB days. I can confirm your first point. My whole driveway out here in Montco is already iced over. I almost did a full wipeout walking my dog. I also agree on the convergence zone idea. This has the feel that someone (south Jersey?) is going to over perform tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 After how badly they dropped the ball Sunday you would figure they would issue some CYA WWA's just in case.If you guys would take a second to stop bashing Mt. Holly, you would realize WWA's got issued for SJ about 10 minutes ago, Philly and neighboring areas should follow soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
delijoe Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 If you guys would take a second to stop bashing Mt. Holly, you would realize WWA's got issued for SJ about 10 minutes ago, Philly and neighboring areas should follow soon. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY. A PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE SHOULD BE SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR A TIME MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF PHILADELPHIA. THE SNOW COULD LEAD TO SLIPPERY TRAVEL WHICH MAY ADVERSELY AFFECT THE WEDNESDAY EVENING COMMUTE. AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. They don't buy it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY. A PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE SHOULD BE SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR A TIME MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF PHILADELPHIA. THE SNOW COULD LEAD TO SLIPPERY TRAVEL WHICH MAY ADVERSELY AFFECT THE WEDNESDAY EVENING COMMUTE. AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. They don't buy it... I am sorry, what are they not buying??? From 1014 update: SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... 10 PM UPDATE...THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN EXPANDED EASTWARD TO INCLUDE THE DELMARVA AND SOUTHERN NJ. A FIRST GLANCE AT THE 00Z NAM SHOWS A SWATCH OF HIGHER QPF BETWEEN ONE- THIRD AND TWO-THIRDS OF AN INCH OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST PA, THE DELMARVA (EXCEPT FOR SUSSEX, DE WHERE RAIN WOULD CUT DOWN ON TOTALS) AND SOUTHERN NJ WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE NAM IS PROBABLY TOO ROBUST WITH THE OMEGA/QPF AND MAY BE TOO FAR WEST BUT THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ENHANCED FRONTOGENETICAL LIFT ON THE NW SIDE OF THE DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW AS ENERGY IS BEING TRANSFERRED TO THE SECONDARY SYSTEM. THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST SNOW MAY FALL SOMETIME DURING THE 3 PM - 9 PM PERIOD, WHICH COINCIDES WITH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING COMMUTE. SNOWFALL TOTALS BETWEEN 2-4 INCHES ARE FORECAST BUT STILL CANNOT RULE OUT HIGHER AMOUNTS IF THE BEST MESOSCALE BANDING FORMS INLAND. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 GFS also loves SNJ and Philly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
delijoe Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 GFS also loves SNJ and Philly It's trending towards the NAM but not quite there in terms of QPF... I would think at this range the mesoscale NAM is better as it's picking up that convergence zone that some on this thread have been suggesting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
delijoe Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 I am sorry, what are they not buying??? From 1014 update: SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... 10 PM UPDATE...THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN EXPANDED EASTWARD TO INCLUDE THE DELMARVA AND SOUTHERN NJ. A FIRST GLANCE AT THE 00Z NAM SHOWS A SWATCH OF HIGHER QPF BETWEEN ONE- THIRD AND TWO-THIRDS OF AN INCH OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST PA, THE DELMARVA (EXCEPT FOR SUSSEX, DE WHERE RAIN WOULD CUT DOWN ON TOTALS) AND SOUTHERN NJ WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE NAM IS PROBABLY TOO ROBUST WITH THE OMEGA/QPF AND MAY BE TOO FAR WEST BUT THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ENHANCED FRONTOGENETICAL LIFT ON THE NW SIDE OF THE DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW AS ENERGY IS BEING TRANSFERRED TO THE SECONDARY SYSTEM. THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST SNOW MAY FALL SOMETIME DURING THE 3 PM - 9 PM PERIOD, WHICH COINCIDES WITH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING COMMUTE. SNOWFALL TOTALS BETWEEN 2-4 INCHES ARE FORECAST BUT STILL CANNOT RULE OUT HIGHER AMOUNTS IF THE BEST MESOSCALE BANDING FORMS INLAND. I didn't see that when I looked... It's strange they are leaving out NW Burlington and the philly area for the WWAs if they are forecasting 2-4... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 I wasn't bashing. Just pointing out that they're probably going to be cautious because they admittedly blew a forecast with really tragic consequences. They're usually excellent We do not have to be reminded of that bad forecast!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 I wasn't bashing. Just pointing out that they're probably going to be cautious because they admittedly blew a forecast with really tragic consequences. They're usually excellentNo one, except for one run, of one single model got that right. People are adults, they chose to drive fast in adverse conditions. I'm a firefighter, I dealt with it. Enough already, if you don't have anything to add other then bashing Mt. Holly, which I don't give a **** what you say, that's what you're doing, stop posting. And you guys wonder why the hell they don't post here that much. Weenies like you drive them the hell away... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Mt Holly accumulation maps for tomorrow i saw look excellent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jb1979 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Mt Holly accumulation maps for tomorrow i saw look excellent Agreed. This "weenie" will take his 1-2 inches and run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jb1979 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 We do not have to be reminded of that bad forecast!! Sorry about that. No offense intended whatsoever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
delijoe Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 6z NAM has locked in... Nice plume of QPF in central NJ... This is a good 3-4" for PHL/SNJ/Southern CNJ if it verifies... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Still a lot of model variance with this. This has to be one of more inconsistently modeled events in a long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Still a lot of model variance with this. This has to be one of more inconsistently modeled events in a long time. Larger spread than usual for a clipper for sure. It seems that most of our daytime snow will come from that blossoming area of precipitation over WV and western PA as opposed to a defined area of precipitation which we watch march across the upper Midwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Don't know if this is the obs thread also, but it's 26F here with clouds moving in. Low was 25F about an hour ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Redmorninglight Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Just an observation, but happily surprised that we (KWWD) are sitting at 28F with a dewpoint of 19F. I feel that is a good place to start with precipitation on the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 21, 2015 Author Share Posted January 21, 2015 Don't know if this is the obs thread also, but it's 26F here with clouds moving in. Low was 25F about an hour ago. It might as well be... so now it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.