Mitchell Gaines Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 RGEM extrapolated would likely look like tonight's GFS. Seems like this clipper has some potential tricks up it sleeves. Nam north and late, SREFs well they came down to reality. Yeah, CMC looks like GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Yeah, CMC looks like GFS.And barely misses a MECS this weekend, so close yet the lowly NAVGEM has had four hits in a row. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 0z ECM bounces back to a DC 2-4" hit. DC gets the roulette wheel hit tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 0z ECM bounces back to a DC 2-4" hit. DC gets the roulette wheel hit tonight. An inch or two for most of the region. Best accums across southern NJ, up to 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 I never saw models struggle so much with a clipper track in my life Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 I never saw models struggle so much with a clipper track in my life everything is a big time struggle recently for the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fields27 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 12z Nam looks better for the area again... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Could be 1-2 inches for TTN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 MA forum saying GFS is drier for them. Not sure what that means for us and don't want shell out false information since my map reading skills aren't top notch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 GFS is drier, coating to 1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 MA forum saying GFS is drier for them. Not sure what that means for us and don't want shell out false information since my map reading skills aren't top notch. SE PA/Central jersey sees .01-.1 precip, so drier for us but looks wetter for extreme SNJ at first glance. 2-5 for them on this run if temps are ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 SE PA/Central jersey sees .01-.1 precip, so drier for us but looks wetter for extreme SNJ at first glance. 2-5 for them on this run if temps are ok. That's just sad...still more model runs to go though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BucksCO_PA Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 That's just sad...still more model runs to go though. It's a jumper, we're in coastal transition screw zone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheManWithNoFace Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 SE PA/Central jersey sees .01-.1 precip, so drier for us but looks wetter for extreme SNJ at first glance. 2-5 for them on this run if temps are ok. 4 is generous, 5 is ambitious. 1-3 looks right for 195 south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jb1979 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 15Z SREF mean all the way back up to 2.8 inches. What happened??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lswx Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Why is Mt Holly's Advisories seemingly opposite of most model guidance with regards to placement of precipitation amounts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BucksCO_PA Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Why is Mt Holly's Advisories seemingly opposite of most model guidance with regards to placement of precipitation amounts? ever think they're in the process of completing the afternoon package? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lswx Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 ever think they're in the process of completing the afternoon package? I thought so at first but saw they updated their snow map downward at 315PM in NJ and also downward the forecast to inch and less in Burlington County. Edit - Wasnt being negative about the office, just curious Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
delijoe Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 18z NAM has a huge gradient with areas N/W of the city getting very little to SNJ getting nearly .6" liquid with rain/snow mix. Looks like about 3" in the city if the NAM verifies. The hires NAM is a bit drier/further south.... And for some reason Mt. Holly reduces the the totals to 1" for the area? They also still have sunny for the weekend event... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 18z NAM has a huge gradient with areas N/W of the city getting very little to SNJ getting nearly .6" liquid with rain/snow mix. Looks like about 3" in the city if the NAM verifies. The hires NAM is a bit drier/further south.... And for some reason Mt. Holly reduces the the totals to 1" for the area? They also still have sunny for the weekend event... They've dropped the ball on this event since the beginning. Yesterday they were predicting 4" for far northern jersey, I've been taking their forecasts with a grain of salt for this event. It looks like SNJ could easily see 2-4"+, with there being a super tight gradient for areas north and west. I think I'll be lucky to hit 1" up here at TTN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 18z GFS has SEPA dry tomorrow. I want a refund on this model please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SP Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 my hunch is they are updating..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
56er Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 They've dropped the ball on this event since the beginning. Yesterday they were predicting 4" for far northern jersey, I've been taking their forecasts with a grain of salt for this event. It looks like SNJ could easily see 2-4"+, with there being a super tight gradient for areas north and west. I think I'll be lucky to hit 1" up here at TTN. How can they have dropped the ball almost 24 hours before the event even starts? What makes you so sure you know what is going to happen? Let's see if your 2-4" in SNJ verifies then see who dropped the ball. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 They've dropped the ball on this event since the beginning. Yesterday they were predicting 4" for far northern jersey, I've been taking their forecasts with a grain of salt for this event. It looks like SNJ could easily see 2-4"+, with there being a super tight gradient for areas north and west. I think I'll be lucky to hit 1" up here at TTN. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 LOL +1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 LOL children and clippers haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Hopefully the SREFs are on crack or there are gonna be some problems tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soadforecaster Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 seems like there is going to be a suprise burst of heavy snow philly and sw some time tomorrow. things are looking interesting. seems like with the big storm people are over looking this clipper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
delijoe Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Hopefully the SREFs are on crack or there are gonna be some problems tomorrow If the srefs are to be believed then we might see at least 3" for the City and sw NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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