famartin Posted January 18, 2015 Author Share Posted January 18, 2015 am I missing something or did DC have the one clipper last week that was about 4 inches and that's really it? and somehow it is a DC winter. DCA has had 2.6" for the season. IAD 5.8 and BWI 2.8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 18, 2015 Author Share Posted January 18, 2015 DC has more snow than Philly and i think Boston Doesn't matter it's a flippant remark, it's NOBODY'S winter DCA has had 2.6" for the season. IAD 5.8 and BWI 2.8. PHL is 1.6, NYC is 3.2, BOS is 5.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 I figured the numbers were bad across the board. My basic point is just that it is a little too soon to call the wednesday event done. I feel like someone will get a few inches from it, time will tell where the sweet spot is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 18, 2015 Author Share Posted January 18, 2015 I figured the numbers were bad across the board. My basic point is just that it is a little too soon to call the wednesday event done. I feel like someone will get a few inches from it, time will tell where the sweet spot is. I vaguely recall that with the last clipper on the 6th, it wasn't obvious who might jackpot until maybe 36 hours out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 I vaguely recall that with the last clipper on the 6th, it wasn't obvious who might jackpot until maybe 36 hours out? The models overdampened the shortwave with that one and then started catching onto the idea it would stay stronger longer. I think it also ticked north in the final 24-30 hours and even tracked more north in real time which it seems these things always do. I think the 00Z Euro was on crack, when I got a look at the actual maps this morning it appears the system was about to turn up the coast but it shunts it east towards an offshore low where there is a convective blob. Given the 12Z models I would not be surprised if the Euro comes in much weaker, but it may also be further north at the same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Dr No still far south and much weaker than the 0z tease run to the crowd south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Dr No still far south and much weaker than the 0z tease run to the crowd south looking at the ridging to the north i tend to think this clipper might be pretty far south, but like i said stil a few days away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 for something totally different, check out the 18z nam (usual caveats apply, of course) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 for something totally different, check out the 18z nam (usual caveats apply, of course) Yeah really wow, NAM has it Thursday now with 5" at KABE Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 GFS looks good too although not as good as the nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Better sampling hopefully. If this holds at 00z I'll be excited Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 SREFs just came in MUUUUCH better for our area, solid hit for most 3-6"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 SREFs just came in MUUUUCH better for our area, solid hit for most 3-6"?Plumes show 2-3" one member with 15"+ skews the mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
delijoe Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 0z NAM pretty much holds serve... a bit weaker but basically the same setup... 3-5" for the area... rain to snow coasts... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Plumes show 2-3" one member with 15"+ skews the mean. Sref snowfall algorithm is normally overdone. NAM does have a good hit along those lines if not slightly more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Sref snowfall algorithm is normally overdone. NAM does have a good hit along those lines if not slightly more. I painfully noticed that this season. Haha, yeah last two NAM runs look great for the clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 taking a quick look at euro, looks like an inch or two for our area from the clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 ECM with .2" This year that could feel like Jan 96 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 It was fun for those two runs. Thanks NAM. 6z back to reality Sent from my iPhone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fields27 Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 12z GFS looks pretty good for se PA and central/southern Jersey. Solid 2-4" verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Yeah GFS strikes Philly and skips DC/NYC it's humorous. Hurricanes model is a pummeling comparatively speaking this winter in SEPA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fields27 Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Yeah GFS strikes Philly and skips DC/NYC it's humorous. Lol So we can be assured that won't be the final solution... But you're right, funny to look at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 ECM around .1" for most of SEPA counties except Philly .2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 12z GFS improved look indeed. I wonder if the new GFS will have the NS bias that the old one seemed to have. Is it hereditary? We may find out Wednesday. OT for this thread, but meanwhile the 12z Euro (usually better with southern stream/coastal systems) brings the weekend system north enough to (as Ralph would say) raise an eyebrow.....getting closer anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 12z GFS improved look indeed. I wonder if the new GFS will have the NS bias that the old one seemed to have. Is it hereditary? We may find out Wednesday. OT for this thread, but meanwhile the 12z Euro (usually better with southern stream/coastal systems) brings the weekend system north enough to (as Ralph would say) raise an eyebrow.....getting closer anyway. I still think that bias is present. Not a big fan of the new GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 18z GFS dry again. Every run different but dry is the trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 18z GFS dry again. Every run different but dry is the trend The old GFS would say otherwise but we'll never know. I don't think the para ever had more than C with the last clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 NAM slow and dry, whatever is left of clipper goes north wed night into thu, this is likely to slow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 GFS is faster with Wed night timing. Brings a nice burst of snow with it for a couple of inches. Still quite the difference so far in 00z data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 RGEM extrapolated would likely look like tonight's GFS. Seems like this clipper has some potential tricks up it sleeves. Nam north and late, SREFs well they came down to reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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